Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran on Dec. 15, 2009, and the first edition launched on Nov. 10, 2009.
Consider this a convenient way to see in what direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000 based on how well we expected each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category was a team's current players and the future potential of those players. That category accounted for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
To reach our ratings in each category, we talked to teams to get a handle on their future strategies, we looked at their contractual commitments and we carefully broke down each roster to figure out which players would improve, which would decline and which likely would depart.
These rankings will evolve as the season moves along, transactions are made, injuries occur, strategies shift and so on. Return from time to time as we update the rankings.
Here are our current rankings from 1 to 30:
Future Power Rankings:
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-1-100302">1-5 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-2-100302">6-10 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-3-100302">11-15 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-4-100302">16-20 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-5-100302">21-25 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-6-100302">26-30
21. Milwaukee Bucks | Future Power Rating: 455
The Bucks zoomed up to No. 20 for the last edition of the Future Power Rankings, and they remain a respectable No. 21 in this edition.
The sensational play of 20-year-old rookie point guard Brandon Jennings was the impetus for Milwaukee's improvement in our rankings in December, and he remains a bright spot for the future. But although Jennings has cooled off significantly during the season, the Bucks have demonstrated they're more talented than expected.
Former No. 1 pick Andrew Bogut is having the best season of his career, and Ersan Ilyasova, just 22, has shown great promise. Plus the Bucks added John Salmons at the trade deadline to replace injured guard Michael Redd.
Although Milwaukee doesn't look as if it will be a contender any time soon, it does look like a potential playoff team on the rise in the East. And in 2011, the Bucks should have significant salary-cap room to exploit.
(Previous rank: 20)
22. Philadelphia 76ers | Future Power Rating: 426
Allen Iverson's return brought a temporary buzz to Philly, but that quickly faded. Then the 76ers were involved in talks at the trade deadline but didn't pull the trigger. Meanwhile, their young talent hasn't made significant strides this season. So the team we rated No. 19 and No. 21 in the first two editions of the Future Power Rankings seems adrift and now comes in at No. 22.
The Sixers need Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights and their next draft pick to come on strong. Otherwise, the franchise will apparently be mired in its current position as a late lottery team until Elton Brand's contract expires in 2013.
(Previous rank: 21)
23. Memphis Grizzlies | Future Power Rating: 425
We like when teams are honest with themselves, even if it means admitting a blunder. So Memphis' decision to send Hasheem Thabeet to the D-League is, from this vantage point, a good sign. What isn't is that meddling owner Michael Heisley made the pick instead of general manager Chris Wallace, one of many examples where Heisley's interference yielded a negative outcome.
Despite the owner's unsettling interest in personnel decisions, Memphis' management grade moved up from 29th to 26th. The Pau Gasol trade doesn't look nearly as bad as it did before, second-round pick Sam Young has helped and picking up Ronnie Brewer at the trade deadline looks like a good move.
Unfortunately, the other indicators don't stack up well for Memphis. Their players ranked 11th, as the four-man nucleus of Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol is impressive. But the Griz have money issues and may not pay to keep Gay, who will become a restricted free agent in the summer. If Gay leaves, enticing a replacement for him will be tough -- between the empty seats, small market and checkered track record, Memphis ranks dead last among NBA's markets.
(Previous rank: 25)
24. New Orleans Hornets | Future Power Rating: 415
New Orleans has to be excited about the development of rookies Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton, especially because those two might let the team slither out of a salary-cap noose that otherwise would have it bleeding money next season.
The small-market Hornets could find themselves more than $10 million over the luxury-tax line next season thanks to a series of awful contracts (Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, James Posey), but if they can trade point guard sensation Collison -- who won't be needed once superstar Chris Paul comes back -- and/or Thornton and dump a couple of bad contracts in the process, they might be able to avoid the hit and protect the roster's core, particularly CP3.
This team doesn't make a lot at the gate, doesn't have wealthy owners and is only a borderline playoff team as presently constructed. Paul is the league's best point guard, and one hopes the Hornets can get out of their financial quagmire without trading him.
(Previous rank: 23)
25. Phoenix Suns | Future Power Rating: 400
The Suns have returned to their freewheeling style and are once again a factor in the West, with 36-year-old point guard Steve Nash still playing at a very high level and Amare Stoudemire still an All-Star. That said, we remain pessimistic about their long-term future.
The core of the roster is aging, and Stoudemire and Channing Frye can leave as free agents as early as the summer. Youngsters Robin Lopez and Goran Dragic have showed improvement, but lottery pick Earl Clark has showed nothing. Furthermore, the Suns won't have a first-round draft pick this year, having given it up to the Thunder even before the team moved to Oklahoma City.
The Suns remain a lot of fun to watch, but for how long can they really compete? Given the concerns about the future of the roster and our doubts about management's willingness and ability to spend the money necessary to get the Suns back to the top, we aren't optimistic.
(Previous rank: 26)
Future Power Rankings:
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-1-100302">1-5 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-2-100302">6-10 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-3-100302">11-15 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-4-100302">16-20 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-5-100302">21-25 |
"http://insider.espn.com/nba/news/story?page=FuturePowerRankings-6-100302">26-30
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