Will the Phoenix Suns' Cinderella run in the Magic Kingdom carry them all the way to the playoffs for the first time since 2010?
Monday's win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, who were sitting multiple starters, moved Phoenix to 6-0 in seeding games and within a half-game of the Portland Trail Blazers for a spot in the Western Conference's play-in matchup for the 8-seed in the playoffs. While the Suns still need some help to reach the play-in, their chances are looking better by the day.
Once again, I've used the multiyear version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) to simulate the remaining seeding games 1,000 times.
Let's take a look at what to expect going forward in the West play-in race.
Memphis Grizzlies
• Finish eighth in 46% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 41% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 44% of simulations
The Grizzlies' loss to the Raptors on Sunday guaranteed that there will be a play-in matchup this year. And while the Grizzlies remain the most likely team to participate, they missed an opportunity to clinch a spot in the play-in. But they still need just one more win or losses by both the Suns and San Antonio Spurs to do so.
The bigger question is whether Memphis, which held a 3.5-game lead over Portland entering the restart, will be able to hang on to eighth place in the play-in. My simulations of the remaining games now consider that less than a 50-50 proposition.
Because the format offers a dramatic advantage to the team in eighth -- which will have to win just once, while the team in ninth must win twice -- whichever team claims that spot will be favored statistically.
To get there, the Grizzlies will probably have to find one more win among their final two games against Boston and Milwaukee, both of whom are locked into their playoff seeds and could rest starters. (Of particular note: The Bucks could give a huge gift to former assistant coach Taylor Jenkins, now Memphis' head coach, by sitting players in their final seeding game.)
Portland Trail Blazers
• Finish eighth in 37% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 27% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 36% of simulations
After a disappointing loss to the LA Clippers on Saturday afternoon, the Blazers took care of business down the stretch against the short-handed Sixers on Sunday behind Damian Lillard's heroics. Lillard scored nine points in a four-possession span starting at the three-minute mark to push Portland from down one to up six, capping a 51-point outing.
If they win out, the Blazers can't be caught for a spot in the play-in.
Portland did get some bad news on that front Monday, when the Dallas Mavericks beat the Utah Jazz despite sitting out both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. That win kept Dallas in the mix to pass Utah for sixth, meaning the Mavericks will have something tangible at stake against the Blazers on Tuesday.
Portland finishes up on Thursday night against the Brooklyn Nets in the last seeding game involving a team in contention for the play-in matchup. So the Blazers will know by the time they take the court whether that game is one they need to win.
Phoenix Suns
• Finish eighth in 11% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 21% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 15% of simulations
Everything's coming up Phoenix right now. In addition to dominating the short-handed Thunder in the second half of Monday's game, the Suns got good news when the Philadelphia 76ers ruled out All-Star center Joel Embiid for Tuesday's matchup due to a left ankle injury.
With Embiid out, Phoenix will be heavily favored to beat Philadelphia, which would leave only Thursday's finale against Dallas between the Suns and a perfect 8-0 record in seeding games.
It's possible that even winning out won't get Phoenix to the play-in matchup. If Portland wins out and Memphis wins at least one of its final two games, the Suns would still fall short at 34-39 by virtue of losing the season series to the Grizzlies 3-1.
Still, Phoenix has done everything in its power since the season resumed to make the playoffs. And nobody will want to face a Suns team on an eight-game winning streak in the play-in matchup.
San Antonio Spurs
• Finish eighth in 6% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 12% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 6% of simulations
Phoenix's run has complicated San Antonio's push for a 23rd consecutive playoff appearance. Though the Suns and Spurs are tied in the standings in terms of games back, Phoenix has a better winning percentage by virtue of one more win and one more loss than San Antonio. So if the teams come up with the same record over the next two games, the Spurs would lose that virtual tie.
To have any hope of getting to the playoffs, San Antonio almost certainly needs to win out. On Tuesday, they'll face the Houston Rockets with James Harden on the bench but another former MVP (Russell Westbrook) potentially returning after a two-game absence. Westbrook is listed as questionable, as is Spurs guard Derrick White, who suffered a left knee contusion in Sunday's win over the New Orleans Pelicans.
San Antonio closes the schedule Thursday against Utah, which has been resting starters in most recent games. But the Jazz might have something to play for in terms of avoiding the dreaded seventh seed and a first-round matchup with the Clippers if the Mavericks win each of their next two games.