June 30: Rockets dump Robinson
The Rockets send forward Thomas Robinson to the Trail Blazers in exchange for two future second-round picks and the rights to forwards Kostas Papanikolaou and Marko Todorovic.
Houston: B
If there's one deal I'd like a mulligan on grading over the past six months, it's the Rockets acquiring Thomas Robinson at the deadline. As blogger Mark Haubner of The Painted Area wisely argued at the time, the groupthink that Houston stole Robinson from the Sacramento Kings proved wildly optimistic. Robinson barely played for the Rockets before they dumped him to free more cap space to pursue Dwight Howard. In hindsight, Houston got more value from throw-in Francisco Garcia than Robinson.
The upside is Robinson's contract remained movable, and Daryl Morey was able to complete the deal -- which can't be officially completed until the new NBA year begins on July 10 -- before meeting with Howard on Sunday night in Los Angeles.
The Rockets didn't get the first-round pick they wanted for Robinson, but the return is better than it might look on the surface. Few teams have made better use of second-round picks than Houston, which now has a couple more shots at landing cheap talent in years to come. And both international players the Rockets acquired are intriguing prospects.
Todorovic had one of the best WARP projections of the players drafted in Thursday's second round, while Papanikolaou boosted his value by winning the Euroleague Rising Star award last season. (Previous winners include Danilo Gallinari and Ricky Rubio.) Papanikolaou's translated European stats suggest he could be a rotation player now, at the age of 23. While it's possible neither player ever plays for Houston, they represent low-cost gambles for the kind of role players the Rockets will need to surround Howard if they can successfully recruit him.
Portland: C-
"Blazers acquire last year's No. 5 pick" sounds a lot better than "Blazers acquire rookie traded twice in the past five months." I'm leaning toward the latter being a more accurate descriptor of Robinson. Certainly, there's context to both moves. Robinson never had a clearly defined role in Sacramento and never got a chance to play in Houston, which was flush with young big men. Still, those teams know Robinson better than anyone else in the league, and the low esteem in which they held him seems telling.
What if Robinson was never a particularly good prospect? If you paid close attention to last week's look back at WARP projections past, you noticed that Robinson was ranked just 21st. His translated college statistics correctly indicated that Robinson was going to struggle to finish against more athletic defenders. Since Robinson is barely 22, there's plenty of time for him to reinvent himself, but that will most likely be as an energy role player. It's rare for a player as ineffective as Robinson was as a rookie to develop into a quality starter, let alone a star.
Portland surely looks at the price for Robinson as low. GM Neil Olshey has indicated he viewed Papanikolaou as a trade asset rather than a potential part of the Blazers' future, and Portland can always purchase second-round picks using Paul Allen's ample pocketbook. The biggest cost might be the alternative uses for Robinson's salary. At $3.4 million, he doesn't come cheap, and the move likely knocks the Blazers out of the running for Nikola Pekovic in free agency. That's why I probably would have passed on this deal.
June 27: Boston-Brooklyn Blockbuster
The Celtics send forwards Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce and guard Jason Terry to the Nets in exchange for guards Keith Bogans and MarShon Brooks, forwards Kris Humphries, Kris Joseph and Gerald Wallace and future first-round picks in 2014, 2016 and 2018.
Boston: B-
The rebuild is on in Boston, too, and as Insider colleague Tom Haberstroh wrote, the Celtics might yet be a part of the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes. From a value standpoint, this deal is all about the 2016 and 2018 picks. Danny Ainge is gambling that Brooklyn's aging roster will collapse by that point, giving Boston a chance at adding lottery picks given the lack of protection.
Adding those picks does come at a price. Wallace's contract, which has three years and a little more than $30 million remaining, is one of the worst in the league. Offloading Terry's deal recoups about a third of that total, but the Celtics are adding $10 million to their cap in the summer of 2015, when Terry would have been off the books.
There's also the question of what else Boston might have gotten for Garnett and Pierce, which was complicated by Garnett's no-trade clause and the short window to decide on Pierce before his contract for 2013-14 became guaranteed. Presumably, Ainge explored those alternatives and was unable to come up with anything.
If the frame of reference is this deal versus standing pat with Garnett and Pierce, it's a win for the Celtics despite the difficulty of dealing two legendary players, although not an overwhelming one because of Wallace's contract.
Brooklyn: B
I understand the concerns from the Nets' perspective. Giving away picks for aging players is a bad way to build a franchise, and Brooklyn could undermine its attempts to rebuild later this decade. But the Nets had already mortgaged their future, so what's a little extra debt at this point?
In the short term, this move significantly raises Brooklyn's ceiling. The Nets appeared to have little chance of getting higher than the fourth seed or to the Eastern Conference finals as previously constructed. Their loss to the Chicago Bulls in the opening round of this year's playoffs revealed their limitations -- starting with the fact that the Bulls did not have to defend nonscorers Evans and Wallace. That certainly can't be said about Garnett and Pierce. Their additions give Brooklyn one of the deepest, most balanced starting lineups in the league as long as Garnett and Pierce play at a high level.
The Nets should be able to construct a decent bench around Mirza Teletovic, first-round pick Mason Plumlee, Bojan Bogdanovic (a 2011 first-round pick likely to sign for the taxpayer midlevel exception) and free agents willing to play for the minimum alongside the stars. Depending on how that plays out, Brooklyn will be in the mix with Chicago and Indiana for the second spot in the East and a chance to challenge the Miami Heat in the playoffs.
There are no guarantees for the Nets. Injuries will be a concern with such a veteran team, and because aging will hit Brooklyn hard, rookie coach Jason Kidd has to integrate the newcomers immediately. Maybe the Nets will flame out in the second round next season and go down from there. I still think this deal is worth the risk and the potential cost down the road, especially since shedding Wallace actually improves Brooklyn's long-term cap situation barring a lengthy Pierce extension. As of now, the Nets have only one guaranteed contract beyond the 2015-16 season (Deron Williams), meaning it's not inconceivable Brooklyn could rebuild on the fly by 2018.
June 27: Philly rebuilds with Noel
The 76ers reportedly send guard Jrue Holiday and the No. 42 pick to the Pelicans in exchange for the rights to center Nerlens Noel and a protected 2014 first-round pick.
New Orleans: D
When Noel dropped to the sixth pick, the Pelicans found themselves with an opportunity. Since Noel made less sense in New Orleans alongside Anthony Davis than almost anywhere else, a trade was nearly inevitable. Pelicans GM Dell Demps decided to use Noel as a lure to fill point guard position for years to come with Jrue Holiday, an All-Star for the first time last season at the age of 22.
Holiday is an upgrade on Greivis Vasquez, who could be either a trade asset or a quality reserve in the last year of his contract. And he's still got room to grow with years until he reaches his prime. However, the cost was immense. In addition to the rights to Noel, New Orleans had to send its first-round pick in 2014 to Philadelphia. The Pelicans aren't out of the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes, since the pick is top-5 protected, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein. But New Orleans is still looking at potentially giving up two top-10 picks.
Talent-wise, those players might -- might -- be a wash with Holiday. The secondary issue is financial. Both Noel and next year's first-round pick would be on cost-controlled rookie contracts for their first four seasons. Holiday's rookie contract is already up, and he'll begin a four-year, $41 million extension next fall. So Holiday has to be better than not only Noel and next year's pick, but also whoever the Pelicans could have signed with the $5 million a year difference in their combined salaries. That's unlikely to be the case.
Philadelphia: A+
Since the 76ers hired Sam Hinkie in mid-May, we've been waiting for some indication of his vision for the franchise. Well, we unmistakably got it Thursday. Hinkie is ripping apart a team that was stuck in the middle of the Eastern Conference and heading -- at least temporarily -- for the bottom. That's the message in trading away Holiday, Philadelphia's best player, for a pair of first-round picks.
With the loaded 2014 draft class 12 months away, this is the time to rebuild. Noel is the ideal centerpiece in that regard. In time, Noel -- rated far and away the best player in this year's draft by my WARP projections -- could be a star and every bit as good as Holiday. In 2013-14, coming back from ACL surgery, Noel is unlikely to contribute. A 76ers team with no Holiday, and presumably no Andrew Bynum, could be among the contenders for the No. 1 overall pick. Depending where New Orleans' pick lands, Philadelphia could easily have a pair of top-10 picks in what is considered the deepest draft in years.
With those picks joining Noel and the 76ers' own first-round pick, Syracuse point guard Michael Carter-Williams (No. 11 overall), Hinkie could have his new core in place by this time next June. Philadelphia will have flexibility to build around those young players, since the Sixers have just two non-rookie contracts (forward Thaddeus Young and guard Jason Richardson) that extend past next season.
While Philadelphia won't be a major player in free agency in the coming years, Hinkie can use that cap space to add additional assets using the model popularized by the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder model requires adding elite talent in the draft. In Noel, and possibly next year's picks, the 76ers are off to a good start.
Holiday for Noel would have been a decent move for Philadelphia. Add in the 2014 first-round pick and this deal is an enormous win for the 76ers.
June 27: Nuggets, Grizz exchange bigs
The Nuggets send center Kosta Koufos to the Grizzlies in exchange for forward Darrell Arthur and the No. 55 pick.
Denver: D
Since JaVale McGee's playing time was reportedly a factor in the decision to fire George Karl, it's easy to see why Koufos would end up on the move. Still, it's unclear why the Nuggets couldn't simply have encouraged new head coach Brian Shaw to play McGee more than Koufos. Since Koufos makes just $3 million, there was no urgency to trade him, and Denver now has no backup center (third-stringer Timofey Mozgov is a free agent) and two backup power forwards (Arthur and Anthony Randolph).
Koufos was one of the league's better values last season, and it's surprising that the Nuggets couldn't get more for him. Arthur is a solid defender who will help Denver on that end of the floor, but a limited player who's unlikely to see more than about 15 minutes a night for the Nuggets next season.
Memphis: A
From the Grizzlies' perspective, this deal creates much better balance in their frontcourt. Previously, Memphis had two backups (Arthur and Ed Davis) better suited to power forward and no true center behind starter Marc Gasol. Now, Davis and Koufos can play together or new head coach Dave Joerger can mix and match them with Gasol and Zach Randolph. That's one of the best frontcourt reserve duos in the league, and nobody in the NBA boasts a more complete rotation at power forward and center than the Grizzlies.
If there's a downside to this deal, it's that Koufos almost seems wasted backing up Gasol. He can easily handle 25 minutes a night, but will probably be limited to about 15 or so. Again, however, Koufos' low pricetag makes him workable in that role, and his presence should help keep Gasol fresh after the starter averaged 35.0 minutes per game last season and 36.5 the season before.
June 27: Second-round swap
The 76ers send the No. 35 pick to the Wizards in exchange for the No. 38 and No. 54 picks.
Philadelphia: B+
The 76ers picked up an extra second-round pick for moving down three spots, which is a nice value play.
They eventually dealt No. 38 as well but got their man (analytic favorite Arsalan Kazemi) with the 54th pick.
Washington: C
The Wizards paid a relatively high price, but give them credit for moving up for a quality prospect -- Glen Rice Jr., a player who easily could have gone in the first round.
June 27: Jazz move up
The Jazz send the No. 14 and No. 21 picks to Minnesota in exchange for the No. 9 pick, Trey Burke.
Utah: B
When Trey Burke dropped, the Jazz pounced, dealing both their first-round picks to move up to No. 9 and take one of the top point guards in the draft.
There's an outside chance Burke might have made it all the way to 14, but giving up the 21st selection wasn't an exorbitant price to pay for ensuring Utah got the point guard it wanted.
Minnesota: B+
Strictly from a value standpoint, the 14th and 21st picks are preferable to the ninth one. Based on the typical WARP projections for these picks and the rookie contracts, they should produce about $9.4 million in value above their salary over the course of their four-year deals, as compared to $7.8 million for the ninth pick. Once Kentavious Caldwell-Pope went to Detroit, this trade made complete sense for a Timberwolves team with little interest in the point guards at the top of the board.
June 27: Warriors buy into the Draft
The Warriors send a 2014 second-round pick and cash considerations to the Timberwolves in exchange for the No. 26 pick and guard Malcolm Lee.
Golden State: A
For months, the Warriors have been trying to buy their way into the draft. The assumption was that Golden State would be able to get into the second round, but by offering to take on Lee's guaranteed contract and give up a 2014 second-rounder in addition to a reported $1.6 million, they pried away Minnesota's first-round pick.
Minnesota: C
I'm rarely a fan of selling first-round picks, but with three selections the Timberwolves were in position to send one elsewhere. At the very least, Minnesota got a future second-rounder, and dumping Lee -- ineffective during his first two seasons, and coming off hip surgery -- helps, more in terms of clearing a roster spot than the money itself.
June 27: Cavaliers trade Crabbe
The Cavaliers send the No. 31 pick Allen Crabbe to the Blazers in exchange for two future second-round picks.
Cleveland: B-
The No. 31 pick has extra value for a couple of reasons. It's the first non-guaranteed pick, and teams often try to trade up during the break between the first and second rounds.
Given that, the Cavaliers needed to get a pair of picks in order to give it up.
Portland: B
The specifics on the picks remain to be seen, but in Crabbe the Blazers got first-round value with pick No. 31 and added another option to their bench, a weakness last season.
June 27: Warriors trade down I
The Warriors send the No. 26 pick to the Thunder in exchange for the No. 29 pick and cash considerations.
Golden State: C+
The Warriors recouped more than half of the money they sent to Minnesota for the No. 26 pick ($1 million, per Tim Kawakami) by trading down three spots, a move with little risk.
Oklahoma City: C
Would one of the two teams between the Thunder and the Warriors (Denver and San Antonio) really have taken Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City's pick at No. 26? Probably not, but a small amount of cash is little to give up for that certainty.
June 27: Warriors trade down II
The Warriors send the No. 29 pick and guard Malcolm Lee to the Suns in exchange for the No. 30 pick.
Golden State: C+
The Warriors really had no interest in Lee, and moving down one pick is a trivial cost to shed his contract.
Phoenix: C
The Suns must have some interest in Lee as a possible defensive stopper, since moving up one pick did little to alter their draft position. The cost is low.
June 27: Mavericks move back I
The Mavericks send the No. 16 pick to the Celtics in exchange for the No. 13 pick and two future second-round picks.
Boston: C-
The difference between the 13th and 16th picks tends to be marginal, so giving up a pair of second-round picks is actually a fairly high price for the Celtics to get their guy in Gonzaga forward Kelly Olynyk.
Dallas: B
For the Mavericks, who were happy to move down, the extra second-round picks could prove useful down the road, especially if they belong to a Boston team now likely to be picking in the 30s or 40s.
June 27: Mavericks move back II
The Mavericks send guard Jared Cunningham and the No. 16 and No. 44 picks to the Hawks in exchange for the No. 18 pick.
Atlanta: B+
Essentially, the Hawks got a second-round pick from Dallas in exchange for taking on the contract of Cunningham, a first-round pick a year ago. Cunningham remains an intriguing, if raw, prospect and Atlanta will have a full summer and training camp to evaluate him before deciding whether or not to guarantee his (paltry) salary for 2014-15.
Dallas: C
The full cap ramifications of this deal remain to be seen, but the Mavericks created more space here in two ways. First, they shed Cunningham's salary. Second, by going back from 16 to 18 -- a meaningless distinction, because the Hawks were picking in between -- they will pay Shane Larkin slightly less money. Was that worth giving up the No. 44 pick? We'll see what Dallas does with its cap room.
June 27: Jazz buy Gobert
The Jazz send the No. 46 pick and cash considerations to the Nuggets for the No. 27 pick.
Denver: C
The Nuggets clearly wanted no part of this year's first round, and settled on moving back to the second round and picking up cash considerations. Much as I would have liked to see Gobert play alongside JaVale McGee, two of the league's freakiest athletes, hard to blame them.
Utah: B
After trading their pick in the 20s to move up and get Trey Burke, the Jazz were able to get back into the first round using their second-round pick and cash. Gobert is an interesting gamble for Utah and the price was right.