Andrew Wiggins. Andrew Wiggins. Andrew Wiggins.
Those are the two words that bounced around in my head when news broke of a trade discussion that the Boston Celtics would receive next to nothing in return for Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry.
Of course, that's the point. From Boston's perspective, this is setting up to be a tank job for the ages. Earlier this week, the Celtics traded a lame duck in Doc Rivers for a future first-round pick. Then, by trading away three of their top five scorers and the backbone of their stout defense in exchange for Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace, MarShon Brooks, Kris Joseph and a sign-and-traded Keith Bogans, the Celtics would be opting to be horrifically bad in the short term in order to set themselves up for long-term prosperity.
The opposite, however, looks true for the Nets: terrific now, terrible later.
While the players will rule the headlines, the key here is the trio of first-round draft picks the Celtics would receive in the deal, which could all pay off in a very big way for Beantown. The Nets reportedly would send away not one unprotected pick, but unprotected picks in 2014, 2016 and 2018. All we're waiting for now is for Garnett to waive his no-trade clause.
This can't be stressed enough: The Celtics would make out like bandits in this deal because of those picks. Without the protection, the Celtics would have done fine in the trade because it likely would have yielded a strong position in the 2014 draft. But the 2016 and 2018 picks aren't the icing on the cake; they are the cake, considering how old the Brooklyn roster is now.
You know how the Portland Trail Blazers acquired the 2012 rookie of the year, Damian Lillard? The Nets hastily traded a first-round pick to Portland at the 2012 trade deadline in exchange for an expiring contract in Wallace. Sound familiar? Yeah, and that was top-three protected. These three that the Nets would be shipping up to Boston are unprotected.
To recap, the Celtics would have their own pick in 2014 -- which promises to be, at worst, in the top five (more on this later) -- and they would also have another likely nonlottery first-rounder, whichever is the worse pick between the Nets and the Hawks as a result of the Joe Johnson deal in 2012. Furthermore, the Celtics would have a pair of first-rounders in 2015 (their own and the Rivers pick) and a pair of first-rounders in 2016 and '18 (their own and Brooklyn's). If the deal gets done, the Celtics will have a pair of first-rounders in four of the next five drafts. I repeat: four of the next five drafts.
Reshaped Green Team
As I pass you a barf bag, here's how the Celtics' starting lineup shapes up for next season: Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, Jeff Green, Gerald Wallace and Brandon Bass. While the bench might be solid, there isn't a shot creator on the team outside of Rondo, who might be missing considerable time next season after ACL surgery.
Keep in mind, the Celtics struggled mightily to score last season (they ranked 20th in offensive efficiency), and that was before they jettisoned 43.5 points per game's worth of Pierce, Garnett and Terry to a division rival. If you thought it was hard to stomach the Celtics' offense in the playoffs, just wait until next season. Headbands might be the hottest accessory for Boston fans in 2013-14 because they can double as blindfolds.
Losing Garnett should cripple a Celtics defense that held opponents to just 100.4 points per 100 possessions last season, which ranked sixth-best in the league. If you want a glimpse of what a Garnett-less defense looks like, check out the dreadful off-court numbers from last season. In the 1,946 minutes that Garnett sat on the bench in 2012-13, the Celtics allowed 104.6 points per 100 possessions, or 8.4 points worse than with him on court (96.2). In other words, they went from a top-10 defense to a bottom-10 defense, depending on whether Garnett was on the floor. And that's before we talk about Pierce, who was still a plus on that end of the floor for much of the season.
With Rivers gone, the Celtics are wise to do everything they can to stink up the joint next season. While it's being labeled as the Wiggins draft, most draft experts agree the 2014 draft class could be the most stacked crop of players since the 2003 draft that brought LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade (sorry, Pistons fans).
So even if the Celtics don't win the top overall pick in the draft, they'd still likely end up with a potentially franchise-changing player to slot next to Rondo -- whether it's Andrew Harrison, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle or Marcus Smart. And then they'd have another first-round pick as a result of this deal. And that's just talking about 2014.
What's Next For Wallace?
The biggest Nets name in the deal is Wallace, who turned 30 this past season but looked more like 40. One of the most disappointing players of 2012-13, Wallace averaged 7.7 points on 39.7 percent shooting while starting 68 of his 69 games played. Once a dynamic two-way player, Wallace struggled to make a dent on either end of the floor and posted an 11.6 player efficiency rating. Keep in mind, that was Year 1 in a four-year deal.
Before Celtics fans rush (crawl?) to the stores to buy Wallace jerseys, he might not even play a game in a Boston uniform. With $30.3 million due over the next three seasons, Wallace could be a candidate to be waived under the "stretch" provision. That would allow the Celtics to chop up his contract and pay it out over the next seven seasons in $4.3 million increments. Just like that, the Celtics could shed $6 million every season in cap space.
Outside of Wallace, the Celtics would receive a duo of one-dimensional veterans in Humphries and Bogans. Neither figures to make big contributions for the Celtics next season, and considering the C's apparent tank objective, they'll be just fine with that.
Rondo Watch Renewed
Another fascinating development to watch: Forget Wallace for a moment; will Rondo play next season for the Celtics? He's unlikely to be traded since his stock has never been lower after he tore his ACL. But there is a possibility Rondo could receive the Derrick Rose treatment and sit out next season to fully recover from his ACL surgery. Rose tore his ACL three months later in the season than Rondo did, so sitting out the entire 2013-14 season might be stretching it.
But Rose sat out from April 2012 to May 2013, which is a total of 13 months. On that timetable, Rondo wouldn't be back until late February 2014. Would the extra few wins Rondo would bring be worth the lost pingpong balls in the 2014 lottery? It's an interesting question, one that arises because of a counterintuitive draft system that rewards teams for not playing their best players.
As for the Nets, they will have built a title favorite ... if this was 2008. It's no surprise that a franchise owned by Russian billionaire and million-dollar-yacht-forgetter Mikhail Prokhorov has pushed all the chips to the middle of the table along with all the team's credit cards, car keys, mortgages and change clanging in its pockets.
But with the Chicago Bulls getting Rose back, the Miami Heat looking to three-peat and the Indiana Pacers with another year of internal growth together, the Nets are picking a dubious time to go all-in for a championship. And they weren't close this past season after losing to a decimated Bulls team in the first round.
At best, the addition of Garnett and Pierce would inject a much-needed defensive mindset to a Brooklyn team that finished tied for 18th on defense in 2012-13. The addition of Garnett alone could move the Nets into the top third in the league. Key word: could.
The Nets' championship aspirations would depend on whether Garnett is healthy, which means it all really hinges on Brooklyn's training staff. Garnett's full health is far from guaranteed. We're talking about a 37-year-old with more than 50,000 career minutes on the odometer. Not only that, Pierce will turn 36 in October, Johnson will be 32 next week and Deron Williams, at 29, isn't a spring chicken, either. As of now, the Nets will be an Eastern Conference contender, but it's hard to go further with the way the Heat, Bulls and Pacers look.
Considering how bloated Brooklyn's books were long term, the clock was already ticking on the new Nets era. Now they've sped up time, for better and worse.