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The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,200, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the next three seasons.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories. (See table at right.)
As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 50 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise and what kind of draft picks we expect the team to have in the future.
To rank the 30 teams, we asked ESPN Insider analysts Chad Ford, Amin Elhassan, Tom Haberstroh and Kevin Pelton to rate each team in each category. We also asked our ESPN Forecast panel to rate each team in the Players, Management and Market categories.
Here are our latest rankings:
- 1
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
Not much has changed in Miami and neither has its position at the top of this list. The two-time defending champs maintain their No. 1 ranking as well as the sizable cushion they've enjoyed above the rest of the league. Turns out life is good when you have LeBron James on your roster.
The Heat actually nudged up their score a tad since our last polling in May. Why the rosier outlook? For starters, they won another title. That helps. And secondly, we liked their offseason moves. As expected, the Heat sent Mike Miller packing with an amnesty provision pink slip, which wiped away $17 million in luxury tax payments alone. Our staff gave a thumbs up to the trimmer payroll, even if it meant cutting Miller, which explains the Heat's improved ranking in the money category.
Also, despite losing a Finals starter in Miller, the talent on the Heat's roster didn't slip very much overall. Pat Riley scraped the bargain bin by signing Greg Oden at the veteran's minimum while re-signing Ray Allen, Chris Andersen and Rashard Lewis at discount rates. Though Oden's no lock to even play this season (he hasn't been in about a half-decade), he could eventually fill a need as a big body underneath to throw at Roy Hibbert come playoff time.
Employing James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh still isn't good enough to overthrow the Thunder as the most loaded roster in the league. Remember, the Heat's Big Three can all opt out at the end of the season, and that kinda matters in a long-term ranking. But even with the uncertain future of their stars, no one can match the top-to-bottom promise of the Heat as they begin their quest for a three-peat.
-- Tom Haberstroh
(Previous rank: 1)
- 2
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
Don't you love it when a plan comes together? Daryl Morey sure does. The Rockets' general manager saw his pursuit of a superstar yield not one, but two (James Harden and Dwight Howard) over the past 12 months, pushing Houston from 13th in the Future Power Rankings to the lofty status of No. 1 challenger to the Miami Heat.
The Rockets still aren't a finished product. They have to figure out the right complement to Howard in the frontcourt from a large group of contenders, including incumbent center Omer Asik (a possible trade candidate) and sophomores Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas. Houston also must determine whether Jeremy Lin is the answer at point guard or defensive-minded Patrick Beverley fits better next to Harden.
Our panel has faith in the ability of Morey and head coach Kevin McHale to answer those questions; the Rockets ranked fourth in management. And even if it takes a year or two to find the right pieces around Harden and Howard, Houston has time because its two stars are 27 (Howard) and 24 (Harden). The Rockets have all their own first-round picks and a chance at cap space in 2015, when Asik and Lin become free agents, giving Morey plenty of flexibility. This is one contender built with staying power.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 3)
- 3
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
For the first time since August 2010, Oklahoma City finds itself outside the top two in the Future Power Rankings. If the Thunder's future no longer looks as certain as it did with Harden, there's still plenty going for Oklahoma City. The Thunder ranked No. 1 in players on the strength of stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, both of whom improved last season and could still be growing in their mid-20s, and 24-year-old Serge Ibaka.
Behind a terrific starting lineup, Oklahoma City posted the NBA's best point differential during the 2012-13 regular season. Who knows what might have happened had Westbrook not gone down with a torn meniscus that ended his postseason.
Yet there are plenty of question marks for the Thunder going forward. Oklahoma City needs the new generation of young talent that Sam Presti has amassed to start paying dividends. Reggie Jackson showed promise replacing Westbrook during last season's playoffs, while Jeremy Lamb will step into a much larger role with the departure of sixth man Kevin Martin. And this year's lottery pick Steven Adams could be the heir apparent to Kendrick Perkins in the middle.
How well those recent first-round picks develop will determine whether the Thunder can return to the top of the Western Conference while continuing to dodge the luxury tax, the team's biggest concern at least until Perkins' contract expires in 2015.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 2)
- 4
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
While the 2013 NBA Finals might have been San Antonio's last best shot at a title, the Future Power Rankings panel still expects the Spurs to remain in the mix over the next three years. San Antonio's top-ranked management group, led by head coach Gregg Popovich and GM R.C. Buford, has earned such faith with an unprecedented run of success throughout the Tim Duncan era.
San Antonio could have cleared cap space last summer and considered a run at Andrei Kirilenko before ultimately bringing back their key free agents, guard Manu Ginobili and center Tiago Splitter, with minor additions to the bench (notably guard Marco Belinelli). Ginobili's two-year deal gives the Spurs another chance to remake their roster in the summer of 2015, when only Splitter is currently under contract.
Between now and then, San Antonio will hope to stave off the effects of age on the core group of Duncan, Ginobili and Tony Parker by handing more responsibility to promising 22-year-old forward Kawhi Leonard. Leonard's strong postseason suggested he could develop into an All-Star sooner rather than later. The Spurs may need him to reach that level to remain in the NBA's top tier of contenders.
-- Kevin Pelton
(Previous rank: 4)
- 5
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
The Warriors' meteoric rise took place in our May rankings when they jumped from 19th to fifth. In this edition, the team maintains its position.
I'm hard-pressed to explain why, other than pointing out that the panel felt the addition of Dwight Howard catapulted the Houston Rockets ahead of them.
Weirdly, the team took a two-spot dip in the Players category, even though they added Andre Iguodala this summer and didn't have to give up a core player to get him. Although I strongly believe the addition of Iguodala made the Warriors stronger, apparently my colleagues on the panel didn't feel the same way.
I'm also hard-pressed to explain why the Warriors' management, which has been hitting home run after home run, continues to be ranked a mere eighth in our rankings while teams like the Mavs, who have struck out the past few summers, continue to be ranked higher. Over the course of the past two years, I'm not sure any management team has had a better run.
Alas, a ranking of fifth is nothing to sniff at. A year and a half ago, fans were booing new owner Joe Lacob off the court for trading away Monta Ellis. Now? The Warriors are one of the most exciting teams in basketball, seem to be a dangerous contender in the West and look set up to have a long, long run.
-- Chad Ford
(Previous rank: 5)