The Cleveland Cavaliers and Memphis Grizzlies have agreed to the first NBA trade of 2013, with the Grizzlies sending the Cavaliers a protected future first-round pick to take on the salaries of three reserves (Wayne Ellington, Josh Selby and Marreese Speights) in return for Jon Leuer. Let's take a look at the winners and losers of this deal.
Big winner: Robert Pera
Memphis sheds some $6.3 million in salary, which gets it safely below the luxury tax even after it signs two free agents to fill the roster spots opened up by the trade. So the new owner will now pay less salary and avoid the tax, plus receive the league's distribution of taxes paid by other teams -- half of which will go to non-taxpayers.
Winner: Lionel Hollins
Since they are under the tax, the Grizzlies can now postpone a decision on whether to trade one of their highly paid starting forwards, Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph, until after the season. So the coach will likely get another chance to test his core against the West's elite teams, which he's advocated for in the media. That's good news for the Hollins-Grizzlies relationship; Hollins, who is in the final year of his contract, intimated to the Memphis Commercial Appeal that he might look elsewhere if his team was "broken up."
Loser: Lionel Hollins
While his starting lineup will likely remain intact, Hollins is going to have to rebuild his rotation without two of the four players who have seen action in all 40 games this season. Speights has seen his minutes decline since Darrell Arthur returned to the frontcourt, but Ellington has been Memphis' top reserve wing with Quincy Pondexter sidelined by a knee injury. Ellington was also one of the main sources of outside shooting on a team that badly needs it; only Mike Conley had made more 3s for the Grizzlies so far this season.
Memphis will have to replace Ellington as a floor spacer in free agency, which should not be difficult given he's such a one-dimensional player. The Grizzlies have been linked to players like Delonte West (a 37.2 percent career 3-point shooter) and Bill Walker (37.9 percent, though just 31.9 percent in 2011-12 for the Knicks before being waived in April). According to the Commercial Appeal, they have already signed D-League wing Chris Johnson -- not the center who plays for the Timberwolves; the other Chris Johnson, who has made 41.9 percent of his 3s for Rio Grande Valley including 11 in two games during the D-League Showcase. He also has enough size to play small forward, which is important. In Pondexter's absence, Hollins has been forced to play Arthur and Tony Allen out of position behind Gay.
Winner: Cleveland's scouting department
The Cavaliers have had a pair of first-round picks in each of the past two drafts, and their college scouts will stay busy. This June, Cleveland will likely have another extra pick courtesy of the Miami Heat. The Cavs could have the option to swap that pick with the L.A. Lakers -- if the Lakers make the playoffs, which is looking less likely by the game. Looking ahead, the Cavaliers are owed a pick by the Sacramento Kings that is top-13 protected this year, top-12 protected for 2014 and top-10 protected through 2017. They also get another pick from Miami, almost certainly in 2015.
Now Cleveland has added yet another first-rounder to the treasure chest, although figuring when Memphis will actually convey the pick is tricky. The Cavaliers won't get the pick until two years after the Grizzlies send a lottery-protected pick to Phoenix (originally from the Shane Battier trade). Assuming Memphis does make the playoffs, since teams can't trade future picks in consecutive years, the earliest Cleveland will see the pick is 2015. At that point, the Cavaliers would only get the pick if it's in the lottery in 2015 and 2016 and also outside the top five -- similar kind of protection to what Houston and Toronto used in last offseason's Kyle Lowry trade. For 2017 and 2018, the pick is top-five protected, and it's unprotected if Cleveland somehow doesn't get a pick until 2019.
Loser: Memphis' scouting department
The Grizzlies might have just one first-round pick over the next three years. That could be a factor as the Memphis front office makes decisions going forward. While this deal delayed a decision on Gay and Randolph, the Grizzlies still have some $58 million committed to their top four players for next season. To be able to bring back Allen -- an unrestricted free agent this summer -- and fill out the roster, Memphis may still have to trade one of its core players this offseason. Since more teams will have cap space during the summer, the Grizzlies will have more flexibility to trade one of their forwards for smaller contracts and draft picks to replenish the ones they've traded away.
Winner: Jon Leuer
After a solid rookie season in Milwaukee, Leuer was traded and then waived over the summer. He's spent this season languishing on the bench in Cleveland, playing just 91 total minutes and spending time in the D-League. Now he heads to a Memphis team that has an opening for a fourth big man and a crying need for the floor spacing he can provide. Better yet, guess who was one of Leuer's biggest supporters before the 2011 draft? Former ESPN Insider John Hollinger, who is now vice president of basketball operations for the Grizzlies. Hollinger's Draft Rater pegged Leuer fourth among big men in his class.
Loser: Jeremy Pargo
You can't blame Pargo if he dislikes Selby. Last summer, the Grizzlies decided to keep Selby as their sixth guard and traded Pargo to Cleveland in another cap-related deal. Now, because the Cavaliers got three players -- including Selby -- and traded only one, they had to waive a player to clear space on the roster. That turned out to be Pargo, who started 11 games at point guard when Kyrie Irving was injured before getting edged out of the rotation by Shaun Livingston.
Winner(?): Tony Wroten
Our Kevin Arnovitz thinks so. Hollins told the Commercial Appeal that "Wroten becomes crucial" after the trade. In the short term, the coach plans to keep Allen as a backup small forward, move Jerryd Bayless to shooting guard and use the rookie from Washington as his backup point guard. That means more opportunity for Wroten, but it's not clear he's ready to take advantage. While Wroten's creativity can be an offensive spark, he is prone to turnovers. And a perimeter trio of Allen, Bayless and Wroten will allow defenses to pack the paint and dare them to make outside shots. Eventually, Hollins will need more shooting on the floor.
Loser(?): Marreese Speights
The player headed to Cleveland most affected by this deal is Speights, who had the ability to block any trade involving him because of an obscure CBA clause. Speights has a player option after this season, which means the league views him as on a one-year contract with Bird rights at the end of it. By agreeing to the trade, Speights gives up the ability for the Cavaliers to exceed the cap to re-sign him. That won't matter for Cleveland, which will be miles below the cap, but it could be a factor if Cleveland trades Speights to another team that is over the cap. If Speights lands with a tax-paying team, the most they could pay him is the mini-mid-level exception of $3.2 million, which is far less than the $4.5 million he's scheduled to make next year.
So why would Speights agree to the deal? With his minutes dwindling in Memphis, he might prefer the opportunity to showcase his skills in a larger role before potentially hitting the market.
Kevin Pelton is an NBA Insider for ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter, @kpelton.