The NBA trade deadline has passed, which means the focus will now turn toward the postseason and then free agency in the summer.
But some teams will aim to sign their players to extensions players keep them from becoming free agents.
Ahead of the Feb. 6 deadline, Chicago Bulls agreed to give guard Lonzo Ball a two-year, $20 million contract extension. As part of his blockbuster trade to the Golden State Warriors from the Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler will reportedly sign a new two-year, $111 million deal that carries through the 2026-27 season. In December, the Oklahoma City Thunder signed guard Alex Caruso to a four-year extension worth $81 million that will keep him with the Western Conference leaders for the foreseeable future.
As further signings get finalized, we analyze what it means for the rest of the 2024-25 season and beyond.
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Feb. 5: Bulls give Ball a new deal amid trade links
Agreed to a reported two-year, $20 million extension with guard Lonzo Ball
Grade: Pass (extensions graded on pass/fail scale)
Another NBA contract was no guarantee when Ball went more than 33 months between games while dealing with multiple surgeries on his left knee, as ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Jamal Collier explained earlier this year.
Remarkably, Ball hasn't just returned but contributed for the Bulls. He moved into Chicago's starting five on MLK Day and has averaged 9.1 PPG in that role. Ball hasn't quite regained his accuracy beyond the arc, shooting just 34% on 3s after 38% during two seasons with the New Orleans Pelicans and 42% for the Bulls in 2021-22 prior to his season-ending injury.
Still, Ball's active defense (he's averaging a career-high 2.4 steals per 36 minutes) and play recognition on both ends have been positives for Chicago. The Bulls are outscoring opponents by 4.2 points per 100 possessions with Ball on the court according to NBA Advanced Stats, best of any Chicago player who's seen more than 250 minutes of action. Some of that is attributable to 3-point shooting in a small sample, but the Bulls have been better in sustainable areas as well.
This extension reflects lingering uncertainty about Ball's long-term health. He'll make less over two years than this season's $21.4 million salary as the conclusion of the four-year contract Ball signed with the Bulls via sign-and-trade in the summer of 2021. At that price, I think it was reasonable for Chicago to keep Ball around rather than making a trade before Thursday's deadline.
Dec. 22: Caruso inks new deal with West-leading Thunder
Agreed to reported four-year, $81 million extension with forward Alex Caruso
Grade: Pass (extensions graded on pass/fail scale)
When the the Oklahoma City Thunder acquired Caruso for Josh Giddey in June, an extension looked likely. Caruso is in the final season of the bargain contract he signed with the Chicago Bulls and this was the largest extension he could sign, once six months had passed from the date of the trade as of Dec. 21.
Based on the way Caruso played last season in Chicago, where he averaged a career-high 28.7 minutes per game and was voted to the All-Defensive second team, $20 million per season is more than reasonable as the salary cap goes up. Soon, that won't be appreciably more than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception the Bulls used to sign Caruso to his current deal.
With Oklahoma City, Caruso has been utilized far more as a luxury than the necessity he was in Chicago. Presumably with an eye toward avoiding the minor injuries that limited Caruso last season, the Thunder have played him exclusively off the bench, for just 20.2 MPG. That would be Caruso's least playing time since 2019-20 with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Not coincidentally, Oklahoma City aspires to repeat the Lakers' 2020 title run with Caruso, and his role could be bigger in the spring -- particularly if Caruso shoots the ball better. Although Caruso has delivered on defense, he hasn't proved to be the shooting upgrade over the departed Giddey the Thunder surely hoped.
In fact, Caruso hasn't shot as well (27% on 3s) as Giddey, who's hitting them at a 33% clip in Chicago. It's worth remembering that even a third of the way through the season, those samples still aren't particularly large. The DARKO projection system suggests Caruso can be expected to shoot 37% from 3-point range going forward, as compared to 33% for Giddey.
If Caruso shoots an average 3-point percentage or better, it becomes easier for Thunder coach Mark Daigneault to play him when the game slows down. Caruso has played fewer than five minutes in clutch situations, as defined by NBA Advanced Statistics (score within five points in the last five minutes of regulation or during overtime). Daigneault has favored guards Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe in closing lineups, but Caruso provides more size and defensive versatility with those groups.
Extending Caruso clarifies Oklahoma City's cap situation going forward. The Thunder now have all 14 players under guaranteed contract signed through 2025-26, and still are comfortably shy of the luxury-tax line next season.
The Oklahoma City core will get far more expensive in 2026-27, when Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams come off their rookie contracts. Team options for a number of players that season -- Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Joe and Kenrich Williams -- will give the Thunder the ability to manage its luxury-tax bill while deciding which players are keepers starting in 2027-28. By then, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will likely start a supermax extension that could force tougher decisions.
Down the road, it's possible Caruso's salary could become an issue for Oklahoma City. This extension takes him through age 35, by which point Caruso's declining athleticism might make it more difficult for him to defend bigger opponents. The Thunder's stockpile of future first-round picks gives them the ability to get out of this contract if needed, and the downside risk is more than acceptable if Caruso makes the difference in Oklahoma City advancing in the playoffs now.