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How Draymond Green's suspension impacts a teetering Warriors season

Golden State's Draymond Green has been suspended indefinitely by the NBA. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Late Tuesday night, after the Warriors dropped a wholly winnable game on the road against the Kevin Durant-less Suns, Golden State coach Steve Kerr fielded a question about Draymond Green, who had been ejected during the third quarter for spinning and clocking Suns center Jusuf Nurkic in the face.

At what point does Green's behavior, which has now resulted in three ejections and two suspensions through 15 games this season, become too much -- more of a detriment, now, than the positive energy that fueled their dynasty?

"Draymond's still a hell of a player. Still a really good player," said Kerr, who has won four NBA titles with Green. "So we need him. If we're going to be a really good team, we need him."

That might be be true. But at the moment, there are so many problems the Warriors need to solve that it's not entirely clear Green's availability -- or his play so far this season -- would fix them.

On Tuesday, wing Andrew Wiggins, a hero of the 2022 Finals, shot just 1-for-7 in 14 minutes, his worst game in what has arguably been a career-worst season. Future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson, logging the worst effective field-goal rate of his career this season, was hardly any better, shooting just 2-for-10 in 27 minutes. Unceremoniously benched, neither of them was on the court in crunch time of the narrow loss, nor was center Kevon Looney.

Instead, Kerr elected to use rookie guard Brandin Podziemski and third-year forward Jonathan Kuminga to finish the contest. (Gary Payton II, the dependable guard, has been on the shelf since late November with a torn right calf.) And this is all taking place as Stephen Curry, at 35, is averaging 29 points per game on just 19 shots.

Then, of course, there's Green. Even setting aside the question of his frequent infractions -- this current suspension, which is indefinite, is now his fourth since punching then-teammate Jordan Poole last preseason -- it's fair to question Green's value at this stage of his career, particularly as Kerr and the 10-13 Warriors desperately seek stability.

There are certainly ways in which Green stabilizes the team. He's still one of the best offensive connectors in the game, serving as a fantastic on- and off-ball screener and as a devastating short-roll playmaker when teams throw two defenders at Curry out past the arc. (Green has also shot the ball surprisingly well from distance -- 42.9% on 42 tries.)

Still, when he has played, it has been a highly uneven campaign for the 2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year. Golden State has outscored opponents by 3.3 points per 100 possessions without Green this season, and has been outscored by 5.8 points per 100 possessions with Green.

Perhaps the biggest surprise: The Warriors have been abysmal on defense, surrendering 119.8 points per 100 possessions -- the equivalent of a bottom-five defense -- with Green on the floor this season. By contrast, they've surrendered 112.1 points per 100 possessions -- the equivalent of a top-10 defensive unit -- when Green is off the floor. This isn't to suggest that Green isn't active or in position to make plays. He actually leads the NBA in charges taken per game, having drawn 10 of them in just 15 games.

But even if Green has been active defensively, his declining rim protection has been downright glaring compared to his past performances. Just last season, players shot 11.5 percentage points worse around the rim with Green in the vicinity. In 2021-22, they shot 8.8 percentage points worse.

Opponents shot almost 13 percentage points worse in 2020-21, and 8.4 percentage points in 2019-20.

This season? Players have shot 7.8 percentage points better than their averages with Green nearby.

While the data might not be enough yet to draw a long-term conclusion, it makes the question Kerr was faced with an even more interesting one.

It was less surprising that the Warriors would defend Green's behavior when he influenced dominant play on both ends. But now that the aging team is struggling, there's truly no margin for Green's self-inflicted errors anymore.