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ESPN- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in July 2017
Founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams - Close
ESPN- NBA draft analyst and writer
Joined ESPN.com in 2023
Covered the NBA and NBA draft for Sports Illustrated from 2015-2023
Welcome to the first NBA draft notebook of the 2023-24 cycle, where our experts Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo will provide the latest news and intel leading up to the first pick in June.
With the first month of the college basketball season nearly in the books, Givony and Woo share their most surprising freshmen so far, their respective rising prospects that are moving up NBA draft boards and three things across the landscape to keep an eye out for in December.
The most surprising freshman has been ...
Reed Sheppard | Guard | Kentucky
Catchall stats have limitations, especially early in the season, with a limited sample size against varying levels of competition as most college basketball teams elect to schedule as many November home wins as possible. Regardless, they can provide some value in identifying early standouts and players to hone in on once teams play real competition.
Box plus-minus is arguably the most useful of the catchall stats. Four of the players ranked No. 1 over the past five seasons -- Trayce Jackson-Davis (2023), Keegan Murray (2022), Evan Mobley (2021), Obi Toppin (2020) and Zion Williamson (2019) -- were top-10 draft picks, with Jackson-Davis being the exception. The player ranked No. 1 this season, Reed Sheppard, might surprise some, making him worthy of a deeper look.
Kentucky has played only one top-100 opponent -- Kansas in the Champions Classic, where Sheppard racked up 13 points and four steals in 16 minutes during a loss -- with the Wildcats' best win coming at home in overtime against Saint Joseph's (ranked 108 per Ken Pom).
Even against lower-level competition (and in limited minutes versus Kansas), it's easy to see how good Sheppard is and why he has been arguably Kentucky's most productive player, averaging 18.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 5.3 steals and 1.7 blocks per 40 minutes while shooting 67% from both inside and outside the arc.
Sheppard uses and rejects ball screens effectively to get into the paint off crossovers and hesitation moves, reading the floor with poise and patience and making the game easy for teammates by whipping the ball all over the court with outlet passes, finding cutters and rollers over the top, and with skip passes for open 3s. He also is an outstanding shooter with deep range with his feet set and pulling up off the dribble, showing no hesitation getting into his jumper with a quick release and impressive confidence.
Defensively, he generates turnovers instinctually with timely digs, traps and post-doubles, shooting the gap for steals, intercepting entry passes, flying around off the ball, and wreaking havoc with smart rotations to protect the rim. He's got quick hands, and an even quicker mind, helping him compensate for his lack of physical tools, which show up at times with the way bigger players can shoot over the top of his limited length or overpower him one-on-one.
Measured 6-foot-2 in shoes with a 6-3 wingspan and 187 pounds at Kentucky's pro day, Sheppard's dimensions aren't going to blow teams away, which is why making the transition to full-time point guard will likely be important to maximize his draft stock down the road. Can he attack pick-and-roll switches when teams force him to be a one-on-one scorer? Does he have the size and length to slow down elite-level guards consistently? How will his ballhandling hold up when he's the focal point of an opposing scouting report?
These are questions we don't have the answer for after six games, but we will know a lot more about as we get into SEC play. It's unlikely Sheppard went into the season planning on being one-and-done, and there's a strong argument to be made that coming back and having the keys to Kentucky's offense next season (when D.J. Wagner and Rob Dillingham likely move on to the NBA) could be highly beneficial for his long-term development. We'll have to see how the campaign plays out. -- Jonathan Givony
Milan Momcilovic | PF | Iowa State
Milan Momcilovic hits the 3 vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Another less-heralded prospect who likely didn't plan on winding up in early NBA draft conversations, Momcilovic ranked as a top-100 prospect coming out of high school outside the Milwaukee area. He earned an invite to USA Basketball U19 trials earlier this year, but he didn't make the final roster and joined an Iowa State team with modest expectations. And while Momcilovic, like Sheppard, is certainly not a clear-cut one-and-done case, the shooting acumen that Momcilovic has demonstrated has turned heads in the early going while shooting 45% from 3 through seven games and averaging 14.1 points as a critical component of his team's offense. He was terrific in a 21-point performance against Virginia Tech, and he looks to be far enough ahead of schedule for teams to consider him a draftable candidate in 2024.
Momcilovic projects as a top-flight shooter, with a quick release and minimal dip getting to a high, consistent shooting pocket. He is less comfortable shooting on the move at this stage but looks great with his feet set, able to get the ball out of his hand with just a sliver of daylight and willing to get 3s up at a high volume. He has NBA size, measuring just under 6-foot-9 in shoes with a 6-9 wingspan.
Momcilovic's projection could be hampered at least somewhat by his lack of high-level foot speed and explosiveness. It doesn't get in his way as a shooter but limits his ability to get downhill and play at the rim at this stage, something that won't get easier moving forward. He's simply not very fast or agile, which also hurts him in the run of play as a rebounder and in pursuit on defense. His size helps quite a bit playing in help, but he isn't likely to have any advantage in scramble situations and probably won't offer much rim protection playing the 4, his most natural spot on the floor.
There's not necessarily a rush for Momcilovic to enter the draft. His shooting should always offer a degree of appeal and floor as a prospect, and college is likely a better place for him to expand his shot diet and comfort level as a scorer. There will be less room for experimentation in the NBA and a much longer pathway to minutes; his job will be making shots. But Momcilovic's college readiness and what he has flashed so far is notable, and teams will be eager to get a fuller sense of his offensive game as the season rolls on. Given the constant demand for shooters, a big game or two could certainly force the issue and bolster his stock to the point where turning pro early makes sense. -- Jeremy Woo
Jonathan Givony's November risers
Keshad Johnson | PF | Arizona
Preseason ranking: N/A | Top 100: No. 49
Keshad Johnson somehow drains an off-balance and-1 bucket to put Arizona on top over Duke.
Arizona is 6-0 with a road win over Duke and a neutral-floor victory against Michigan State, giving the Wildcats possibly the best résumé in college basketball besides Purdue.
A major reason for that is the outstanding play of the fifth-year senior Johnson, particularly on the defensive end. He has been a game-changer on defense by locking up the paint as a rim protector, sliding his feet switching onto guards on the perimeter, closing out on shooters with outstanding technique and bringing nonstop effort and physicality in the paint.
Johnson's ability to body up big men, switch 1 through 5 and make plays at the rim as a drop or help defender positions him with ideal versatility for modern NBA defenses.
Offensively, Johnson is benefiting from the more wide-open style at Arizona that has allowed him to get easier baskets in the paint and step into 3-pointers with more freedom. His jump shot will be scrutinized by NBA scouts looking to project his offensive role at the next level, but the fact that he has hit nearly one 3-pointer per game and is converting 81% of his free throws is a good start.
Johnson showed his toughness and experience in creating big plays down the stretch of both of Arizona's biggest wins while making a strong case with NBA teams in the process. He has an ideal platform at Arizona to continue to help himself as the season moves on.
Tyler Kolek | PG | Marquette
Preseason ranking: No. 67 | Top 100: No. 32
Tyler Kolek drives by his defender and finishes with an impressive up-and-under basket.
Kolek, a preseason All-American and the 2023 Big East player of the year, was a well-known commodity entering his senior year at Marquette. He is taking advantage of the platform by being the engine of one of the best teams in college basketball with wins against Illinois, UCLA and Kansas. The Golden Eagles ended the Maui Invitational with a narrow defeat -- their first of the season -- against Purdue in the championship game, with Kolek posting 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists.
Kolek is the best pick-and-roll point guard in college basketball. He is an elite ball handler who plays with phenomenal pace and has tremendous timing, creativity and feel while reading defenses and whipping passes all over the floor.
Kolek has some physical limitations scoring inside the paint with his lack of length and explosiveness, but he still finds ways to get virtually anywhere he wants on the court and attacks defenders with polished spin moves and footwork to finish with both hands around the rim. Not known as having the purest shooting stroke, Kolek has hit 40% of his attempts from beyond the arc dating back to the beginning of last season. He has only taken 16 3s in six games this season, however.
Defensively, Kolek's lack of length and average lateral quickness will be scrutinized closely while projecting to the NBA ranks, but his toughness, timing and smarts make him far more effective on this end of the floor than expected. He gets in passing lanes prolifically, is an outstanding rebounder and always seems to be around the ball.
The more NBA executives see Kolek in high-level college games, the more his stock increases. It's hard to find players in his mold who are pick-and-roll wizards and bring the type of toughness and winning intangibles every team is looking for. A deep NCAA tournament run could very well help Kolek solidify himself as a first-round pick.
Kevin McCullar Jr. | SG | Kansas
Preseason ranking: No. 47 | Top 100: No. 25
Kevin McCullar finishes with 12 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds to help Kansas rally back against Kentucky.
We discussed McCullar as a major stock riser last week after the Champions Classic, where he posted a triple-double in a win over Kentucky. He did little to discourage that notion at the Maui Invitational, where he averaged 20 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists in three games in front of NBA scouts. The fact that one of those games came against Division II Chaminade -- and his average of six turnovers a game in Hawaii -- should be noted, but there's little doubt that McCullar, who is in the midst of an All-American campaign, has taken a major step forward in his fifth year of college basketball.
Already known as one of the best defenders in college, McCullar's uptick in offensive aggressiveness has stood out. He is being asked to operate as a primary option for the Jayhawks, and that helps him showcase new facets of his game, especially as a slasher and a facilitator.
Continuing to knock down jumpers -- McCullar is shooting 32% from 3 this season -- will be important to complement his strong defensive and passing versatility.
Jeremy Woo's November risers
Oso Ighodaro | PF | Marquette
Preseason ranking: No. 30 | Top 100: No. 21
Marquette's Oso Ighodaro steals the ball and carries it the length of the floor for the layup.
Ighodaro had become somewhat of a sneaky prospect by the end of last season, helping anchor a 10-game Marquette winning streak and a Big East tournament title with his defensive mentality, playmaking skills and sharp feel for the game. He has carried that momentum into his senior season, with the Golden Eagles looking once again like one of the top teams in the country. Ighodaro entered the week shooting 67% from the field and averaging 15 points and 7.3 rebounds with more than a steal and a block per game. His all-around production has helped support his case as a potential first-round pick, despite an unconventional style of play that best projects as a small-ball center at the NBA level.
The tape already supports Ighodaro's case as one of the best defensive bigs in college basketball: He fared well in a series of high-level matchups at the Maui Invitational against Adem Bona (UCLA), Hunter Dickinson (Kansas) and Zach Edey (Purdue). He is listed at 6-foot-11 and 235 pounds, up from his previous 6-9 and 215 pounds. NBA teams will be keen to get reliable measurements on Ighodaro this spring, but regardless of his actual size, his success on the defensive end derives primarily from great positioning, timing and technique both in the post and in rotations. He is exceptional at staying vertical on shot contests and making the most of his tools. Ighodaro, who isn't yet entirely comfortable defending in space, offers enough mobility to guard the pick-and-roll and make life difficult for opponents all over the paint.
On the offensive end, Ighodaro offers a strong mix of playmaking, efficient scoring and activity on the glass. He is capable of scoring when called upon but doesn't need to dominate touches to make a positive impact. The NBA success of other feel-driven bigs such as the Oklahoma City Thunder's Jaylin Williams lays the groundwork for Ighodaro to find a role despite his primary weakness, as he entirely lacks a reliable jump shot at this stage. As a historically poor free throw shooter who hasn't shown progress in that area, teams will have to be comfortable with Ighodaro likely never stretching the floor at center. But his ability to deliver the ball to teammates, put the ball on the floor and generate offense for himself situationally should allow him to play as a cog in an offense and prevent him from being a total black hole.
Ighodaro's reliability and production -- along with being on the younger end for a senior -- will work in his favor, particularly in the context of a draft that seems to have a dearth of plug-and-play prospects, particularly at center.
Dalton Knecht | SG | Tennessee
Preseason ranking: No. 88 | Top 100: No. 40
Purdue's Lance Jones tries to get to the rack in transition, but gets denied by Tennessee's Dalton Knecht.
Knecht stepped in immediately as the top scoring option for Tennessee after transferring from Northern Colorado and beginning his career at Northeastern Junior College. His efficient offensive play has translated early on with a 24-point performance at Wisconsin and positive showings in Maui that showcased his ability to score all over the floor. The Volunteers have asked Knecht to carry their offense, and while he likely won't be suited for a high-volume role in the NBA, the variety of ways he can get to his jumper -- and his sturdy build at 6-foot-6 -- give him a profile that looks translatable on that side of the ball.
Knecht plays an aggressive style of offense and is willing to attack the basket with enough skill off the bounce and in the midrange to take advantage of weaker matchups. His array of moves off the dribble isn't particularly deep nor is he especially fleet of foot, but Knecht more often than not takes what's available and makes good shot decisions. He is a respectable if not an elite 37% shooter from distance for his career but looks comfortable catching and shooting and will almost certainly wind up with a scaled-down offensive role at the next level. Given the heavy workload Tennessee needs from him, scouts should view some sporadic inefficiency (which we saw against Kansas in Maui) with a bit of lenience; as long as he continues to demonstrate diversity in his offense, playing both on the move as a shooter and with the ball in his hands, there will be some appeal here.
The major questions with Knecht hinge on the defensive side of the ball, where opponents have tried to attack him early in the season while challenging his foot speed and awareness. He competes on that end but will likely be put through the gauntlet nightly, particularly in conference play as opponents try to find holes in Tennessee's otherwise solid defense and force him to chase through screens. Knecht doesn't guard especially well in space, either, and he doesn't figure to improve much physically as an older prospect who will turn 23 before the draft.
Knecht has certainly put himself on the map through this November leg of the season and looks capable of an All-American type of campaign. There is a clear avenue for Knecht into the draft if he can hold his own defensively and continue to provide reasonably efficient scoring at high volume.
Alex Karaban | PF | UConn
Preseason ranking: No. 67 | Top 100: No. 41
UConn's Alex Karaban beats the shot clock again with a jumper to extend the Huskies' lead late.
A less-heralded but critical part of UConn's 2023 title team, the 21-year-old Karaban has noticeably taken his play up a notch as a sophomore. He has a larger offensive role with the NBA departures of Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson Jr. and is averaging 16 points through six games. During that stretch, he has been one of the most efficient offensive players in the country, shooting 83% on 2-pointers and 37.9% from 3 on nearly five such attempts per game entering the week. He is a key cog in a balanced Huskies offense as a floor-spacing forward, and that translates toward what an NBA team might eventually ask him to do.
While not physically overwhelming at 6-foot-9 and 210 pounds, Karaban has decent positional size for a stretch forward and an advanced understanding of what his role is, where his shots should come from and how to impact the game away from the ball. He has displayed range out past the NBA line and solid shooting mechanics, which coupled with his aptitude for cutting and positioning himself away from the ball forces opponents to constantly pay attention. Karaban's grasp of how to space the floor and find pockets in the defense bodes well, with teams constantly searching for role players who can fit that mold and make life easier for stars. All those elements of his game project well, as he hardly ever overextends himself or takes a bad shot. He makes very few mistakes and has flashed passing ability that allows him to keep plays moving rather than simply terminate them with a shot attempt.
Karaban has been a bit divisive among scouts at this point in the season, however, with valid questions surrounding his below-average physical skills. He is a stiff mover, looks heavy-footed defending in space and offers limited rim protection when playing in help. He certainly battles on that end and has an understanding of positioning and how to switch that should ultimately help him as someone who might need to be protected at times defensively. Karaban clearly does enough to hold his own at the college level, but teams will continue to ask these types of questions as they determine where to place him on their boards. He has done enough to put himself in the conversation now.
Things to watch for in December
Carlton Carrington's NBA draft timeline
Carlton Carrington nails the trey vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
The youngest player in the ACC opened up the season in eye-popping fashion, posting a triple-double (18 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) against North Carolina A&T. Through four games, the 6-foot-6 point Pittsburgh guard was shooting a scorching 14-of-27 from 3 with 25 assists and 5 turnovers, raising plenty of NBA eyebrows. However, the Panthers had not faced a team ranked higher than 232, per KenPom, which has caused most teams to want to wait and see how he fared against real opponents.
Carrington was heavily scouted this past weekend at the NIT Season Tip-Off in New York, where he came down to earth to an extent (19 points on 7-of-20 shooting with 12 assists and 5 turnovers in two games) but still showed plenty of long-term intrigue. He has an outstanding combination of size, live-dribble passing and shot-making, especially for someone who never played point guard prior to enrolling in college. Carrington was just 5-foot-4 and 85 pounds upon entering high school, according to his father, Bub Carrington II, a well-regarded figure in Baltimore basketball who coached NBA players such as Carmelo Anthony, Rudy Gay and Will Barton as the founder of the grassroots program Baltimore Elite. He has grown two inches since arriving at Pitt and might still have another growth spurt ahead of him, as he won't turn 19 until July.
Carrington's thin frame, lack of experience, still-developing ballhandling skills versus switches, and struggles dealing with contact on both ends of the floor were all readily apparent against Florida and Oregon State during the NIT Season Tip-Off. Both teams made him a major focal point of the scouting report, but his talent still shined through in flashes, just not as vividly as it did against lower-level competition. While there's little doubt that Carrington will eventually play in the NBA, we'll get a much better idea of what his timetable might look like in the next 10 days, as Pitt plays Missouri, Clemson and West Virginia. -- Givony
The return of UConn's Stephon Castle
I'm looking forward to the return of Castle, whom I wasn't able to see when UConn played Indiana and Texas last week at Madison Square Garden. Castle had right knee surgery for a meniscus injury that has kept him out of action since Nov. 11. Castle told ESPN's Myron Medcalf he is targeting the Huskies' game versus Kansas on Dec. 1, but sources told ESPN returning for the North Carolina game Dec. 5 or even the Gonzaga game on Dec. 15 is a possibility depending on his recovery. During his more recent action, Castle put up 17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals in 25 minutes versus Stonehill. He has been drawing rave reviews from UConn's coaching staff for his defense, passing, versatility and coachability. -- Givony
Ignite NBA draft prospect returning soon
With an ankle injury sidelining him for much of the fall, Matas Buzelis is nearing a return and could play this weekend, a source told ESPN, placing another lottery-level talent back in the mix on an already-crowded Ignite roster. Buzelis has been out since the Ignite's September trip to Singapore after reinjuring that ankle, as the team has taken a cautious approach to help him build up strength before coming back. Once viewed as a contender to go No. 1 overall, Buzelis last played in a pair of exhibition games against Perth; he fared well enough, but he didn't necessarily build a top-prospect case. With the race for No. 1 still ostensibly wide open entering December, Buzelis is someone we'll be tracking closely, as his mix of size and skill level remains intriguing, particularly in the context of this class. -- Woo
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams.
Jeremy Woo is an NBA analyst specializing in prospect evaluation and the draft. He was previously a staff writer and draft insider at Sports Illustrated.