ESPN's NBA Summer Forecast has revealed the biggest questions coming into the season and which teams will be mired in turmoil and which will rise; it has predicted the 2024 MVP, DPOY and all the major awards; and it has projected the win-loss record for all 15 teams in the East and West.
Now the biggest question: Which top contenders will ascend into championship glory?
The Denver Nuggets staked their claim at the top of the NBA with indisputable dominance in the West. But will they win back-to-back titles?
They'll have plenty of challengers: The Boston Celtics are seeking to avenge an upset in the East by the Miami Heat, who have their Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo core returning (and a possible superstar guard from the West coming). The Phoenix Suns, LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors have added different dynamics to their rosters. And then there's Giannis Antetokounmpo and the East regular-season champion Milwaukee Bucks, who are healthy and hungry after an embarrassing first-round loss last year.
And don't sleep on the Sacramento Kings or the New York Knicks, who will look to build on last season's momentum to project them forward in the postseason.
We asked our experts to rank their top choices for the East and West -- and the eventual NBA champion -- with a first-place vote receiving five points, a second-place vote receiving three and a third-place vote receiving one.
Here are the results:
Note: This week, our 2023-24 NBA Summer Forecast has covered the biggest questions and projections for top awards, including MVP and DPOY.
Who will win the Eastern Conference finals?
The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds from last year's Eastern Conference playoffs once again top our panel's projections, as the Bucks and Celtics rise as the clear favorites to reach the 2023-24 NBA Finals.
After a surprising exit in the first round of last season's playoffs, the Bucks are looking to return to the top of the conference after retaining Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton, while also adding sharpshooter Malik Beasley this offseason.
Our panel likes the Celtics, as well, sitting a close second after adding Kristaps Porzingis to their roster alongside All-NBA forwards Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
At third in our projections are the Heat, who emerge as a favorite following their unlikely NBA Finals appearance last season. Led by perennial coach-of-the-year candidate Erik Spoelstra, there's no reason to doubt Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo can do it again -- and even less so if Damian Lillard joins them.
And after a conference semifinals run, the Knicks, led by point guard Jalen Brunson, make a jump into the mix, alongside the Cleveland Cavaliers, who, with Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, no team will want to face come playoff time.
1. Milwaukee Bucks: 86 points (40% of first-place votes)
2. Boston Celtics: 80 points (40%)
3. Miami Heat: 38 points (4%)
4. New York Knicks: 12 points (16%)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: 9 points
Who will win the Western Conference finals?
It's almost unfair.
The Nuggets are the indisputable favorites in the West after a dominating regular season led to a sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in the conference finals and a 4-1 series win over the Heat for their first NBA championship. The biggest question is whether anyone can take them down.
Our panel believes the Suns are the worthiest opponent after a roster restructure that resulted in as scary and skilled of a Big Three as you'll find in the league in Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. Sitting at third, after leading the list last summer, are the Warriors, who could make another run at the crown after adding Chris Paul to one of the deepest teams.
All-time leading scorer LeBron James and the Lakers -- who check in at fourth in our panel's projections -- look to prove last season's conference finals run wasn't a fluke, while their city rivals, the Clippers, as always, will need Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to stay healthy to effectively utilize Russell Westbrook and make a serious title run.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Kings get a nod in our panel's projections after both made a surprising push in the latter half of the regular season.
1. Denver Nuggets: 106 points (76% of first-place votes)
2. Phoenix Suns: 60 points (12%)
3. Golden State Warriors: 27 points (8%)
4. Los Angeles Lakers: 24 points (4%)
5. L.A. Clippers: 6 points
T-6. Minnesota Timberwolves: 1 point
T- 6. Sacramento Kings: 1 point
Who will win the NBA Finals?
Despite a loaded Western Conference, our 2024 Summer Forecast panel predicts a repeat: The Denver Nuggets will win a second consecutive title. It hardly seems close that any team in the West will challenge them.
Our experts believe the Bucks will shake off last season's early exit and return to the Finals under new coach Griffin. Among the storylines in Milwaukee -- well, the storyline -- will be that Antetokounmpo will play the season without a contract extension. So that's extra incentive for the Bucks to get back to the Finals.
And even though they are defending Eastern champs, the Heat won't sneak up on anyone as they did last season. The biggest threat to the Bucks, our panel voted, will be Boston and its new-look lineup.
But would anyone bet against a deep run from Golden State? Or LeBron and the Lakers? Or the Suns? Do so at your own risk.
1. Denver Nuggets: 80 points (48% of first-place votes)
2. Milwaukee Bucks: 49 points (28%)
3. Boston Celtics: 32 points (4%)
4. Phoenix Suns: 30 points (8%)
5. Miami Heat: 22 points (12%)
6. Golden State Warriors: 6 points
7. Los Angeles Lakers: 5 points
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: 1 point