If our NBA Summer Forecast predicts anything, it's this: We're in for an absolute slugfest in the Western Conference as teams try to chase down the defending champion Denver Nuggets after their dominant 2022-23 campaign.
With most of the Nuggets' core healthy and returning, such a task might not be so easy. Then again, this is the conference with Stephen Curry and the refueled Golden State Warriors; Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and the Phoenix Suns; and Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and the Dallas Mavericks. And who could forget LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers?
And that's not even mentioning the rising Sacramento Kings or the on-paper LA Clippers. Will Victor Wembanyama make a significant impact for the San Antonio Spurs? What kind of jump will the Oklahoma City Thunder enjoy? Can Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert pull it together?
Welcome to the 2023-24 Western Conference. Team by team, here's how our expert panel sees it breaking down.
Note: Our 2023-24 NBA Summer Forecast concludes on Friday with predictions for conference and Finals champion. On Wednesday, we revealed our predictions on how the Eastern Conference will unfold.
Western Conference standings
The contenders
1. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
2. Phoenix Suns: 51-31
3. Golden State Warriors: 47-35
4. Sacramento Kings: 47-35
5. Los Angeles Lakers: 46-36
6. LA Clippers: 45-37
The Nuggets are our clear choice to top the West after a dominant performance in the conference in 2022-23. Their 16-3 playoff run concluded in Denver with them hoisting the Larry O'Brien NBA Championship Trophy for the first time in franchise history.
The dynamic duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray is back for more, as Denver remains the favorite to repeat, according to 2024 title odds at Caesars Sportsbook. The question is: Who in the West can stifle what the Nuggets hope is a dynastic run?
Phoenix, according to our experts, serves as the biggest threat within the inner circle of title contenders. The new-look Suns showcase a recently acquired Bradley Beal alongside Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton. If the Suns can build out their depth and stay healthy, they certainly demand attention in the West.
But don't sleep on the Warriors in the No. 3 spot. They return one of deepest teams in the conference, headlined with franchise stalwarts Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. Now, with the addition of Chris Paul, the Warriors add a different dynamic to their All-Star lineup.
Not far behind them, though, are the Kings, who exceeded all expectations last season under first-year coach Mike Brown, who was subsequently named Coach of the Year. After making their first playoff appearance in 16 years, the Kings pushed the defending champion Warriors to an epic seven-game series. Sacramento's rise should continue, provided it addresses its 25th-ranked defense.
Our panel places the Lakers fifth after an unexpected playoff run that put them head-to-head with the Nuggets in the conference finals. The Lakers barely scraped into the postseason, but they maintained their roster depth this offseason by retaining Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura and breakout shooting guard Austin Reaves.
And the Clippers, perennial maybe contenders, brought back Russell Westbrook and Mason Plumlee to team with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. As has been the variable for years: If they stay healthy -- perhaps the biggest if in basketball -- this projection might be far too low.
The play-in group
7. Oklahoma City Thunder: 45-37
8. Memphis Grizzlies: 44-38
9. Dallas Mavericks: 43-39
10. Minnesota Timberwolves: 43-39
To think that Luke Doncic, Ja Morant and Anthony Edwards will be fighting for play-in spots informs us, once again, about the Western Conference's depth: No team in the top six will rest easy facing any of these players in the first round of the playoffs.
For Doncic and the Mavs, a return to the playoffs feels like a must after missing out last season. More than that, a deep run is expected after reaching the conference finals in 2022. Kyrie Irving extended his stay in Dallas, and the team boosted two problem areas -- defense and shooting -- by trading for Grant Williams and bringing back Seth Curry.
Doncic is with Slovenia at the FIBA World Cup, so the preseason conditioning issues that have dogged him in seasons past might be lessened. But the pressure is on Jason Kidd to get Doncic and Irving in sync early.
The Grizzlies, for their part, might have to climb out an early hole with Morant suspended for the first 25 games. And when he returns, his supporting cast will be different with Tyus Jones (to Washington) and Dillon Brooks (to Houston) gone.
But the absence of Morant will be mitigated thanks to the addition of Marcus Smart, who gives Memphis a pillar in the backcourt to keep things steady.
Could this be the year for the Wolves to jump into the top tier? Edwards signed a five-year, $260 million deal this summer and, based on his performance at the FIBA World Cup, could take another step toward being one of the league's marquee players. The team's hopes will likely depend on how well Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns mesh during the season.
The Thunder project as another team with plenty of upside, particularly if big man Chet Holmgren has a productive debut after missing all of last season injured. The Thunder revolve around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but fellow guard Josh Giddey should be among the league's assists leaders. There is a ton of talent on Mark Daigneault's bench, but it could be another season or two before it all comes together.
The bottom five
11. New Orleans Pelicans: 42-40
12. Utah Jazz: 37-45
13. Houston Rockets: 29-53
14. San Antonio Spurs: 27-55
15. Portland Trail Blazers: 24-58
The Pelicans project to fight for a spot in the play-in tournament, as they continue to deal with injury after injury after injury. New Orleans is two different teams when Zion Williamson is on the floor; it ranked eighth in offense and was 10 games over .500 before he exited in early January. Improving the team's 21st-ranked offense must be a top priority.
The Jazz, after their scorching start to last season, are still seeking pathways to support All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen and All-Rookie center Walker Kessler. In an effort to do so, they acquired John Collins, but they still project to miss the play-in.
Our panel is high on the Rockets, projecting a seven-win improvement over last season. With one of the youngest rosters in the NBA and a new coach in Ime Udoka, the Rockets will lean on recently acquired veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks to address their backcourt alongside young lottery picks Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr.
The Spurs have their next franchise player in Victor Wembanyama, but that does not mean their leap will be immediate. Yet the No.1 overall pick -- the best prospect in decades -- will expedite this rebuild, alongside a core of young players including Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Malaki Branham.
The Trail Blazers project to land at the bottom of the Western Conference, as they remain mired in Damian Lillard limbo. The team had a strong start to their 2022-23 campaign, going 10-4, but finished the season 23-45, tanking their way to the No. 3 pick and Scoot Henderson.