What would help the Miami Heat extend the NBA Finals to Game 6?
As the first team to reach the Finals through the play-in tournament, the eighth-seeded Heat have gotten used to overcoming history stacked against them. For stars Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry & Co. to win the franchise's first title since 2013, they'll need to do it again, having fallen behind 3-1 after Friday's loss to the No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets.
Although comebacks from 3-1 deficits have become more common in recent years, including a pair by the Nuggets on neutral courts during the 2020 playoffs inside the NBA bubble in Orlando, Florida, those efforts typically don't involve a team winning two of its last three games on the road.
Since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984, and excluding the COVID-19 pandemic season, teams in Miami's position have gone 2-132 in the series, with the two comebacks from the Houston Rockets over the Phoenix Suns in the 1995 Western Conference finals and the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Golden State Warriors in the 2016 NBA Finals. Just 31 of Miami's 134 predecessors (23%) have avoided elimination in Game 5.
After losing Games 3 and 4 at home, how can the Heat steal Monday's Game 5 in Denver (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC) to keep their hopes alive?
Let's take a look at some key factors for Miami.
Reclaim the shot volume battle
Perhaps inspired by the Florida Panthers' similarly surprising run to the Stanley Cup Final, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra has referred repeatedly during the playoffs to the importance of getting "shots on goal" by avoiding turnovers.
Because free throws don't count as shots on goal, I think "shot volume" is the better way to describe the non-shooting factors that help decide a game: turnovers and rebounding.
As compared to unpredictable shooting outcomes, teams can feel like they have more control of how many shots they get up. And while it's not as important a factor as shot making, shot volume does matter.
During this year's playoffs, the team with more field goal attempts -- including those that result in a trip to the free throw line -- has won 59% of the time (45-31).
There's a reason Spoelstra, in particular, has highlighted shot volume. Miami is 8-4 (.667) with the advantage in the playoffs so far and 3-5 (.375) without it. (The Heat are 2-0 when tied.)
Two of those four losses with an edge in shot volume have come in Games 1 and 3 of this series, but getting more attempts to score helped keep the Heat in those poor-shooting games.
Miami ceding the shot volume battle to Denver in Game 4 with 14 turnovers -- nearly as many as the previous two games combined -- was a factor in the Nuggets winning easily despite shooting 49% on 2-point attempts, tied for their lowest mark of the postseason.
Particularly on the road facing a Denver crowd eager to celebrate the first championship in franchise history, the Heat must avoid turnovers that allow the Nuggets to get out in transition.
Take advantage of the sagging Denver defense
Bam Adebayo's playmaking from the high post was a key factor in Miami's Game 2 win in Denver, but the Nuggets found an effective defensive counter in Game 4 by having Nikola Jokic sag off Adebayo in order to clog the passing lanes. The move took advantage of a rule that allows a defender to legally stay in the paint for longer than 3 seconds when the player he is defending has the ball.
In that role, Jokic was active with both his hands (NBA Advanced Stats tracked seven deflections, more than the six Jokic had in the first three games of the Finals combined) and his feet (four kick balls). Adebayo committed seven turnovers, his most in a game since February 2021, and four of them came in situations in which Jokic sagged off him.
Sagging defenses are nothing new in the NBA. Notably, defenders often like to back off Draymond Green when he is operating at the high post à la Adebayo. The Golden State Warriors typically respond by using Green as a screener in dribble handoffs. With the defender out of the play, a solid screen can result in an open look for a shooter taking the handoff.
According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Heat did run 14 handoffs with Adebayo in Game 4, generating just six points. However, these handoffs largely served as a setup for pick-and-roll players rather than creating immediate shot attempts. The one time a shooter did come off an Adebayo handoff looking to get free for a shot, Nuggets forward Jeff Green fought through the screen to contest Duncan Robinson's 3-point attempt.
Miami would be wise to focus on getting Robinson, Max Strus and even Gabe Vincent open shot attempts through Adebayo handoffs.
Put size on Aaron Gordon
After Gordon feasted on smaller Heat defenders in the first quarter of Game 1, scoring 12 points on 6-of-8 shooting, Miami adjusted by starting Kevin Love in Game 2 to take the defensive assignment. Gordon scored just 23 points combined in Games 2 and 3 on 10-of-17 shooting.
But Gordon exploded offensively in Game 4. This time, he had 15 points on 6-of-7 shooting in the second quarter, the bulk of those coming at the start of the frame when Jokic was resting. Gordon scored eight points on 3-of-3 shooting in that span, helping Denver outscore the Heat 10-9 without the two-time MVP.
Gordon's production at the start of the second came largely from beyond the arc, something Miami will surely live with from a 35% 3-point shooter this season. Yet it also came with Love on the bench and Gordon matched up against smaller defenders in lineups with only one player taller than 6-foot-7.
One option for Spoelstra: Go back to 6-foot-7 Haywood Highsmith, who had 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting in 23 minutes in Game 1 when Love was a DNP-CD but has scarcely been seen since, logging eight total minutes over the past three contests. Highsmith played only the final 3 seconds of the first half of Game 4.
Playing Highsmith, a 34% 3-point shooter, over Caleb Martin or Robinson would mean sacrificing some floor spacing. It's possible the Heat's best strategy in this series is to lean offense-first as much as possible, hoping to catch another hot shooting night like the 17 of 35 3-point effort that earned Miami its only win of the series in Game 2.
One other option to juice the Heat offense: guard Tyler Herro, the team's third-leading scorer during the regular season who last played in Game 1 of the opening round nearly two months ago. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Monday that Herro is expected to dress and attempt to play after being cleared to return from hand surgery. Although Herro is still experiencing discomfort in the hand and will likely be rusty, what does Miami have to lose facing elimination?
That's a question the Heat's coaching staff will have to weigh ahead of Monday night.