NBA offseason guide: How far can these New York Knicks really go in the future?

The New York Knicks won their first postseason series in over a decade this year, and it seems they finally have their young franchise point guard in Jalen Brunson. But a defeat to the Miami Heat in the conference semifinals has brought the organization back to Earth.

The team has now made the playoffs in two of the first three seasons under the leadership of coach Tom Thibodeau, but disappointing performances by New York's other star Julius Randle in those postseasons, as well as a precarious quote by Randle about the opponent "just wanting it more" has raised questions as to high the ceiling truly is for this group.

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State of the roster

A 10-win improvement from last season and a second-round playoff appearance -- the Knicks' first since 2013 -- indicates there is stability in New York. The Knicks are also well-positioned financially, with no player earning more than $28 million and 11 first-round picks at their disposal in the next seven years.

If the next disgruntled All-Star becomes available, New York has the assets to make a trade and not ruin future flexibility even with the new collective bargaining agreement rules set to begin in July. While all that is positive long-term, the loss to Miami opens up the question whether the roster has the upside to be more than a good regular-season team.

The answer to that lies in the play of Julius Randle. An All-Star during the regular season, the forward was a nonfactor not only in the first and second rounds this year but also the 2021 playoff loss to the Atlanta Hawks.

Offseason finances

The Knicks' four-year streak of being under the cap is expected to end this offseason. Not including the team options of Derrick Rose, Miles McBride and a partially guaranteed contract on Jericho Sims, New York has $146.8 million in salary, $14 million over the salary cap. New York has until June 24 to exercise Rose's $15.6 million team option. The veteran is likely a roster casualty since his contract would put New York into the luxury tax.

The Knicks also have until June 29 to exercise McBride's $1.9 million team option. The salary protection on Sims' $1.9 million contract increases from $600K to $1.2 million July 16. It becomes fully guaranteed Aug. 16.

Top front-office priority

The Knicks' acquisition of Josh Hart before the trade deadline was for both basketball and business reasons.

The basketball part is the do-everything mentality of Hart and the impact he has on both ends of the court. Among all guards in the regular season, Hart ranked third in rebounds (behind Luka Doncic and Josh Giddey) and second in offensive rebounds (behind only Giddey). Opponents shot 41% when Hart was the contesting defender in his 25 games with the Knicks. That ranked in the top 10 among more than 100 players to contest 250 shots after Feb. 10 according to Second Spectrum tracking.

The business part is that because Hart was acquired in a trade, New York inherits his Bird rights and can exceed the cap to sign him. If Hart finished the season in Portland and then became a free agent, New York's only mechanism to sign the guard would have been the $12.2 million nontaxpayer midlevel exception and that likely would have been a nonstarter. Hart has until June 29 to decline his $12.9 million player option.

Because the contract becomes nonguaranteed if he opts-in, the likely scenario is that he enters free agency and seeks a long-term deal. A contract starting in the $16-17 million range gives New York flexibility to remain under the $162 million tax threshold. There is also a scenario where Hart opts-in (New York would then guarantee the contract) and then extends Aug. 10 for up to four years and $81.2 million. This would allow New York to use at least $7 million of its nontax midlevel and remain below the tax.

Extension candidate to watch

The Knicks once again are faced with the realization that there is a significant cost to drafting, developing and then retaining their former draft picks. A year removed from committing four years and $107 million to RJ Barrett, New York has a decision on whether to extend Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin. In the 2024 offseason the Knicks will face the same decision on Quentin Grimes.