What twists and turns still remain for college football's 2026 recruiting cycle? Time will tell.
After early payments and revenue-share agreements drove a torrid summer of commitments atop the 2026 class, the recruiting trail has been strikingly slow since Aug. 1. As of Friday, only three of ESPN's Top 300 prospects remain uncommitted two months from the early signing period: No. 5 outside linebacker D.Q. Forkpa and a pair of post-coaching change decommits in offensive tackles Johnnie Jones (UCLA) and Thomas Wilder (Virginia Tech).
The 2026 class is settled (for now) earlier than any class in recent memory. But the 59 days between now and the start of the early signing period Dec. 3 leave plenty of time for campus trips, surprise flips and all the traditional late-cycle recruiting drama.
"Programs are going to start throwing money around in a way that's unexpected right at the end," an SEC personnel director told ESPN. "I have a feeling that we're going to see some crazy flips. Teams get excited or desperate this time of year and do things that they probably shouldn't do otherwise."
One month into the 2025 college football season, here's what we're hearing about the cycle's top classes, programs positioned to rise and fall and how sources across the industry expect the class of 2026 to play out from now until the early period.
Jump to:
Final two months | Premium positions
Top 5 classes | Classes to rise
Struggling programs | Transfer portal shift
What will the final two months of the 2026 cycle look like?
The nation's top programs spent heavily in the spring and early summer, striking deals with prospects before the House settlement -- which permits schools to pay athletes directly -- took effect July 1. Through front-loaded agreements and early NIL payments, most of college football's bluebloods sorted out their respective 2026 recruiting classes before Week 1.
As for what happens from here, there are two prevailing opinions across the industry:
The final eight weeks of the 2026 cycle will be quiet. Programs have exhausted their budgets for the 2026 class and are turning their attention (and resources) toward the transfer portal and 2027 recruits. Prospects who agreed to deals in the spring will be less inclined to flip and wary of stipulations related to returning early payments.
It's high school recruiting ... of course, there will be late drama, especially with top programs operating with a firmer feel for enforcement (or lack thereof) around revenue-share caps and NIL payments several months in the sport's post-House era.
"I think people are going to start throwing bags here in October," one Big Ten general manager told ESPN. "I think it's really going to pick up. Everyone's just kind of been scheming, watching tape, verifying stuff before they strike."
Personnel sources expect Florida State, Miami, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas and Texas Tech to be among the most active schools in the flip market down the stretch. Those sources, however, caution that top-end prospects, such as five-star recruits and quarterbacks who already hold agreements with the programs they're currently committed to, will be especially expensive to persuade.
"People may start throwing money around here, but it's going to be hard to flip guys," an ACC GM said.
Another lingering element that could spark late movement in the 2026 class: whether programs will deliver on proposed contract figures and details come signing day.
State NIL laws have allowed certain schools to front-load deals with committed prospects. Many programs, operating on the edge of NCAA rules, have already signed recruits to contracts, too. With some committed high school players across the country pulling in five-figure monthly payments, enforcement of rules surrounding how the deals will be reported when those recruits enroll in 2026 is one development industry sources are following closely.
But a majority of the nation's prospects who committed in the spring and summer did so via verbal financial agreements, deals that could not be presented in writing until Aug. 1 and cannot be signed until the early signing period opens in December.
Should certain programs fall short when it's time to sign, there's potential for a late-cycle bubble burst that could lead to a rash of decommitments and flips before Dec. 3.
"The number you told a kid about or put in his letter on Aug. 1 better be there," an SEC GM said. "If not, you're either going to have to come back to him at the end and renegotiate the number or you're going to have to dig back into your revenue-share budget. You have to be careful there."
Premium positions
Though the market for 2026 talent is thin, Power 4 programs are still chasing and have zeroed in on a few premium positions this fall: offensive tackle, defensive end and defensive tackle.
Offensive tackles: Five-star Texas Tech pledge Felix Ojo (No. 20 overall) might still face a late push from Texas but appears locked into his lucrative deal with the Red Raiders. Fellow five-star Immanuel Iheanacho (No. 13) is similarly firm with Oregon but has left the door open with recent visits to LSU and Penn State.
More likely to flip soon is four-star UCLA pledge Micah Smith (No. 46). The polished lineman from Vero Beach, Florida, visited Ole Miss last weekend after the Bruins' move to fire coach DeShaun Foster on Sept. 14, and Smith should attract further attention from top programs as a premier offensive tackle who could flip this fall.
Florida State, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma and Penn State are among the contenders for UCLA decommit Johnnie Jones (No. 194). Several of those same programs have contacted Virginia Tech decommit Thomas Wilder (No. 205), while late-riser Jared Doughty is attracting heavy interest from a slew of SEC programs, including Alabama, Auburn and Georgia.
Defensive ends: The market for edge rushers settled across a flurry of summer commitments, headlined by five-stars Richard Wesley (Texas) and Jake Kreul (Oklahoma).
That pair of five-stars looks likely to stay put. But programs are keeping an eye on five-star Florida pledge JaReylan McCoy, ESPN's No. 1 defensive end, as he returns to visit the program in Week 6, as uncertainty hovers over coach Billy Napier. Multiple programs, including Texas and Texas A&M, are monitoring Florida commit Kevin Ford Jr. (No. 148), as well.
Miami has continued its efforts with top-55 edge rushers Anthony Jones (Oregon) and Nolan Wilson (Alabama) this fall, while Alabama remains in pursuit of Michigan pledge Titan Davis (No. 164). Clemson decommit Dre Quinn and former UCLA pledges Anthony Jones and Yahya Gaad stand among the top uncommitted at the position.
Defensive tackles: ESPN's top three defensive tackles -- including No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown (LSU) -- were all committed by Aug. 2, but there could be movement beneath them.
No. 5 defensive tackle Danny Beale (No. 83 overall) and four-star Tajh Overton (No. 268) are the only ESPN 300 pledges in Oklahoma State's 2026 class and could soon be on the move after coach Mike Gundy's firing on Sept. 23. Overton, an in-state pledge from Owasso, Oklahoma, visited Missouri in Week 5 with summer finalists Ole Miss and Oklahoma also set to reenter the mix.
Programs have focused on a deep Texas defensive line class, as well. Four-star pledge James Johnson (No. 123) flipped to the Longhorns from Georgia in July and has visited Texas twice this fall. But Johnson, who hails from South Florida, also took a trip to Miami in Week 1 and has kept Florida warm ahead of the Gators' visit from Texas on Saturday. Elsewhere, Auburn will be pushing to flip four-star Longhorns commit Corey Wells (No. 188) this month.
North Carolina's Trashawn Ruffin, a former Texas A&M pledge, and Georgia's Pierre Dean Jr. are among the other ESPN 300 defensive tackles attracting flip buzz.
Checking in on top-five classes
1. USC Trojans: The Trojans took care of their 2026 business early, securing all but one of their 19 ESPN 300 pledges by July 4. As of Friday, only Georgia can match USC's count of top 300 commits in a Trojans class that remains headlined by five-stars Elbert Hill (No. 16 overall) and Keenyi Pepe (No. 18), along with top-30 skill position talents Ethan "Boobie" Feaster (No. 24) and Mark Bowman (No. 26).
Given that caliber and depth, the remainder of the Trojans' cycle will be primarily centered on maintaining the nation's No. 1 class as outside flip efforts intensify this fall.
Defensive end Luke Wafle (No. 104 overall), who picked USC over Ohio State and Penn State in June, is continuing to hear from the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions this fall. Defensive tackle Jaimeon Winfield (No. 115 overall) is another player attracting buzz as ESPN's 115th-ranked recruit continues an impressive senior season at Texas' Richardson High School.
In terms of further additions, sources expect USC to focus on high-upside athletes with a focus on padding depth in the program's secondary and skill positions before the early signing period. Among the Trojans' remaining 2026 targets, three-star edge rusher Sefa Sackey and safety Antoine Baker each visited campus over the first month of the season.
2. Georgia Bulldogs: Similar to USC, Georgia's 2026 class is loaded with talent and reaches October largely settled with two months until the early signing period. With quarterback Jared Curtis (No. 6 overall) and fellow five-star tight end Kaiden Prothro (No. 19 overall) leading the way, the Bulldogs are well-positioned to land their ninth consecutive top-three class under coach Kirby Smart.
Among Georgia's current crop of ESPN 300 commits, defenders Justice Fitzpatrick (No. 42 overall), Pierre Dean Jr. (No. 106) and Shadarius Toodle (No. 176) are attracting flip interest this fall. Miami, Ohio State and Texas remain in contact with Fitzpatrick, the brother of NFL All-Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick, while the Bulldogs will have to fend off SEC foes to hang on to the pledges of Dean (South Carolina) and Toodle (Auburn).
Georgia hosted Doughty, the late-rising offensive tackle, for its home game against Alabama in Week 5, and the Bulldogs are set to battle Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Kentucky and Ohio State for the three-star lineman. Georgia Tech cornerback pledge Traeviss Stevenson is another flip target for the Bulldogs, while top-40 Alabama commits Ezavier Crowell (No. 31 overall) and Jorden Edmonds (No. 38) are viewed as long shot flip targets despite their respective visits to Georgia last weekend.
3. Texas A&M Aggies: In his second cycle in charge of the Aggies, coach Mike Elko has Texas A&M in position to land its highest-ranked class since the program signed the nation's No. 1 class under Jimbo Fisher in 2022. Five-star athlete Brandon Arrington (No. 15 overall), expected to play cornerback at the next level, leads nine ESPN 300 defenders bound for the Aggies in 2026, and Texas A&M looks set to stock up at running back thanks to in-state pledges from K.J. Edwards (No. 51) and Jonathan Hatton Jr. (No. 75).
Elko and his staff appeared to have their work cut out for them with Edwards, ESPN's fifth-ranked running back. Despite continued interest from Texas and Edwards' visit to LSU on Sept. 13, sources tell ESPN that Edwards has closed his recruitment and is locked in with the Aggies, as first reported by Rivals.com on Thursday.
Elko is looking to stock up on the defensive line in the final stages of the 2026 class. Sources tell ESPN that Texas A&M is one of the programs keeping tabs on Winfield, the USC pledge, and the Aggies continue to monitor Florida defensive end commit Kevin Ford Jr (No. 148 overall) and North Carolina pledge Trashawn Ruffin (No. 284), who flipped from Texas A&M to the Tar Heels in March.
4. Texas Longhorns: After pulling in the nation's top-ranked class in 2025, coach Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns dominated the summer recruiting trail atop the 2026 class. Texas secured nine ESPN 300 pledges from June 1 to July 20, including five-stars Derrek Cooper (No. 7 overall), Richard Wesley (No. 11) and Tyler Atkinson (No. 14). Along with No. 1-overall quarterback Dia Bell, the Longhorns can make a strong argument that they have more top-end talent in their 2026 class than any other program.
Can Texas continue to add over the next two months?
The Longhorns were finalists for Oregon pledges Davon Benjamin (No. 63 overall) and Jalen Lott (No. 111) in the summer, and Texas maintains an interest in both prospects. Sources tell ESPN that the Longhorns haven't closed the door on five-star Tech Tech offensive tackle pledge Felix Ojo (No. 20), either, but a more realistic offensive lineman to flip appears to be Michigan commit Malakai Lee (No. 264). Recent Clemson decommit Dre Quinn is expected to visit Texas in the coming weeks, and the Longhorns will be active in recruiting Fitzpatrick, the Georgia pledge, until ESPN's No. 4 cornerback signs with the Bulldogs.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Irish, on pace to sign their highest number of top 300 prospects in the ESPN recruiting rankings era, have continued their recruiting ascent under coach Marcus Freeman in 2026. And despite the program's 0-2 start this fall, Notre Dame appears poised to hang on to its deep recruiting class through to the early signing period.
Flip buzz out of the Irish's incoming class has stayed remarkably quiet across the first month of the regular season. In that span, the most high-profile interest has centered on cornerback Khary Adams, No. 29 overall and the top-ranked recruit bound for Notre Dame in 2026. While Michigan continues to push for ESPN's No. 2 cornerback prospect, sources tell ESPN that Adams looks to stay put, a notion Adams reinforced in the summer as the Wolverines upped their efforts to flip his commitment.
Texas is considered the front-runner for Quinn, the recent Clemson decommit who visited Tennessee last weekend. However, sources believe Notre Dame could soon join the Longhorns and Vols as contenders to land the four-star edge rusher alongside Georgia, Georgia Tech and Ohio State.
Which teams could rise this fall?
Florida State: The Seminoles' recruiting position has been bolstered by the program's on-field rebound during the first month of the season. Having the nation's No. 14 class, the Seminoles still want to add more before the early signing period, a process that continues Saturday with some players they hope to flip expected on hand for a Week 6 visit from No. 3 Miami.
Among that group will be Florida running back pledge Carsyn Baker (No. 173), a long-term backfield target for the Seminoles who also holds interest from Auburn, Kentucky and South Carolina. Johnnie Jones, the former UCLA offensive tackle pledge, is another key recruit set to visit Florida State after his Week 5 trip to Missouri.
On defense, the Seminoles are working to add safeties, with flip targets Lasiah Jackson (Stanford), Kaiden Hall (Florida) and Xavier Lherisse (Oregon) each set to be on campus this weekend. Syracuse defensive end pledge Kamron Wilson (No. 286) is another expected visitor.
Miami Hurricanes: Coach Mario Cristobal and the Canes made waves in May when they beat Georgia and Oregon to No. 1 offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell. But as things stand, ESPN's No. 3-overall recruit remains the only top-100 prospect committed to Miami's 2026 class.
The Hurricanes have shown a willingness to swing big in 2026, and it's why Miami can't be discounted amid its flip efforts with a collection of elite local players. Alongside Ohio State and Georgia, Miami remains one of the programs still working to sway No. 1 running back Derrek Cooper, whose Texas pledge is viewed as firm after his visit with the Longhorns in Week 5.
Wide receiver Calvin Russell (Syracuse), cornerback Justice Fitzpatrick (Georgia) and defensive end Nolan Wilson (Alabama) have each visited Miami this fall. With the door still open on their respective recruitments, the top-60 trio is worth watching in the coming weeks.
Perhaps more realistic for Miami, sources believe the Hurricanes have made up significant ground with Texas defensive tackle pledge James Johnson (No. 123). Florida State safety commit Tedarius Hughes (No. 276) represents another prominent in-state flip target.
Ohio State Buckeyes: The defending national champions hold pledges from the nation's No. 1 wide receiver (Chris Henry Jr.), Ohio State's fourth-ranked safety (Blaine Bradford) and a pair of top-10 linebackers (Simeon Caldwell and Cincere Johnson). What's left for the Buckeyes in 2026?
Ohio State remains in touch with Alabama pledges Xavier Griffin (No. 30 overall) and Mack Sutter (No. 138) and USC defensive end commit Luke Wafle (No. 104), although each prospect appears locked in with their current school. The Buckeyes are set to host defensive end Dre Quinn (former Clemson commit) on Saturday and are contending with some SEC programs for offensive lineman Jared Doughty, who is expected to visit Alabama in Week 6.
The most intriguing developments for Ohio State could come in the secondary. Bradford, the Buckeyes' second-ranked pledge, hails from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and ESPN's No. 34-overall recruit will be linked with a potential move to LSU until the early signing period. Conversely, the Buckeyes should be considered favorites if third-ranked safety Bralan Womack (No. 32 overall) pulls his pledge from Auburn, while the program remains involved in flip efforts for Fitzpatrick (Georgia) and Nebraska cornerback pledge Danny Odem (No. 282).
Fallout for struggling programs
Auburn Tigers: After back-to-back top-10 recruiting finishes in 2024 and 2025, this felt like the year for Hugh Freeze and the Tigers to stack another elite class and start winning on the field. Instead, Auburn stumbled through its initial pair of SEC games last month and reaches October with the 44th-ranked class in ESPN's rankings for the 2026 cycle.
The Tigers had been banking on a fall recruiting surge to propel the program's incoming class up those rankings. But sources tell ESPN that Auburn's start to SEC play -- and looming uncertainty of Freeze's future with the program -- hasn't helped with five-star Oregon offensive tackle Immanuel Iheanacho (No. 13 overall). The Tigers have also fallen behind on flip targets, including wide receivers Cederian Morgan (Alabama) and Marquez Daniel (Florida), while Stanford safety pledge Lasiah Jackson, who visited in September, is expected on campus at Florida State for the Seminoles' ranked matchup against Miami on Saturday.
Auburn continues to hold momentum in its pursuit of Texas defensive tackle Corey Wells (No. 188) out of Petal, Mississippi. Holding off interest from SEC foes Ole Miss and Texas A&M for wide receiver pledge Jase Mathews (No. 235) will be another priority for the Tigers.
Clemson Tigers: This week, coach Dabo Swinney called the Tigers' 1-3 start a "coaching failure". And though Clemson's on-field struggles won't help the program on the recruiting trail, the Tigers look likely to hang on to the bulk of their 2026 class this fall.
Swinney's incoming class took a hit last week when four-star defensive end Dre Quinn pulled his commitment. But Clemson's class cornerstones, including top-ranked pledge Leo Delaney (No. 76 overall) and quarterback Tait Reynolds (No. 279), remain locked in as things stand. Reassured by conversations with the coaching staff, four-star wide receiver Naeem Burroughs has reaffirmed his commitment to the Tigers, amid interest from across the SEC.
Among the potential players who might leave Clemson's class could be four-star safety Blake Stewart, a longtime Miami target who has already visited the Hurricanes' campus this fall. Otherwise, the struggling Tigers appear positioned to carry their 16th-ranked recruiting class to signing day.
Florida Gators: The now years-long speculation over coach Billy Napier's status continues, at least for another weekend. With Napier on the brink, programs across the country are eagerly awaiting the opportunity to persuade players from the Gators' highly talented roster via the transfer portal. A deep Florida recruiting class will be no different, with sources expecting an exodus if the Gators move on from Napier this fall.
Five-star defensive end commit JaReylan McCoy (No. 9 overall) remains locked in with Florida. Ditto for longtime quarterback pledge Will Griffin (No. 69). But Oklahoma is considered a leading candidate to land Davian Groce (No. 36) if ESPN's fourth-ranked running back leaves the Gators' class, and attention from other programs on rusher Carsyn Baker (No. 173), wide receiver Marquez Daniel (No. 227) and defenders Kevin Ford Jr. (No. 148), Kaiden Hall (No. 190), and C.J. Hester (No. 253) will only intensify if Florida makes a coaching change.
McCoy, Groce, Ford, Hester and Daniels are among the committed recruits expected back at Florida for a critical matchup with Texas on Saturday while the Gators continue to push for 2026 targets, including Longhorns defensive line pledge James Johnson (No. 123).
Impact of transfer portal shifts on high school recruiting?
How will the NCAA's decision to eliminate the spring transfer portal and its move to a single January portal window impact high school recruiting? Not much, sources tell ESPN, at least not much more than the transfer portal already has since its introduction in October 2018.
College football's ever-growing embrace of the portal has progressively eaten into the size of high school recruiting classes at all levels of the sport. And long before revenue-share deals sped up the 2026 cycle, the transfer portal -- coupled with the arrival of the early signing period in 2017 -- was already pushing programs to wrap their high school recruiting earlier and earlier.
A single January portal window, likely to open more than a full month after the early signing period closes, shouldn't bring any fresh changes to the timing of the high school recruiting cycle. However, several sources speculated that it could limit the number of midyear enrollee spots teams have to offer their high school signees, potentially forcing programs to onboard more of their high school additions in the spring rather than in January.
If anything, the updated transfer portal setup looks most likely to further the slow end of the traditional national signing day in February. Once a singular touchstone date on the annual recruiting calendar, the importance of the second signing period has become increasingly diminished since the advent of the transfer portal and early signing period.
In the 2025 cycle, only three members of the ESPN 300 committed after the first week of January. With the winter window now standing as the lone period for programs to add in the portal, sources expect schools to focus even less on post-early signing period high school recruiting.