Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats, unless otherwise noted.
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook rushed for 16 touchdowns last season, but seven running backs scored more fantasy points because they either accumulated many more rushing yards or played a large role in their team's offense catching passes. Cook did neither. He barely slid past 1,000 rushing yards and he caught only 32 passes. With Cook's TD rate expected to fall, he was only the No. 10 RB in ESPN ADP, a bit of an overlooked third-round selection.
Don't be surprised if ... Cook leads all RBs in points this season
Cook enters Week 5 second to San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey in fantasy points, and these players achieve their fantasy output in vastly different ways. McCaffrey's massive receiving numbers alone would qualify him to be a WR1. Cook averages three receptions per game. But he is earning far greater volume than he has in past seasons, and (small sample) is scoring touchdowns at a higher rate than last season. He and QB Josh Allen coexist quite nicely.
I selected Cook in the first round of this week's ESPN Fantasy staff "October Mock" because this all looks legitimate. Cook is averaging 22.8 points and is on pace for 319 carries, 1,704 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns, along with a career-high 51 receptions. OK, so perhaps take the "under" on these lofty numbers, but this looks like a solid, durable (sorry, McCaffrey managers) NFL player becoming a superstar in Year 4. I am all-in.
Other RB thoughts that shouldn't surprise:
Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards a season ago, and 1,523 of those yards occurred between Week 5 and Week 16. No, I don't think that will happen again, because the Philadelphia offensive line has struggled this season and the playcalling has been a tad odd, but Barkley should be among the top 10 fantasy RBs again. Let's go with 1,350 rushing yards for the season, which would still be the second-best total of his career. The Eagles might have trouble throwing against the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Barkley should register his first 100-yard rushing game.
No, I am still not remotely giving up on Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry, even as career backup Cooper Rush (probably) replaces star Lamar Jackson at QB on Sunday against the Houston Texans. I think Henry rushes for more than 1,300 yards this season. Baltimore has injury issues everywhere, and the ones on defense are the bigger issue because this defense can't stop anyone, and Henry can't rush 20 times if the team is trailing early. I added RB Justice Hill in a few leagues this week. The Ravens must get Hill more open-field receptions.
After starting only one game, Arizona Cardinals RB Trey Benson (knee) becomes waiver-wire fodder (yes, that quickly) and two of the three most-added RBs in ESPN leagues are Cardinals Emari Demercado and Michael Carter. Houston Texans rookie Woody Marks wisely is No. 1. Demercado is rostered in twice as many leagues as Carter. This might be a mistake. Demercado is larger than Carter, and he averaged a whopping 9.3 yards per rush in very limited work last season, but he is viewed as a third-down option. Carter is explosive, too. One of these fellows caught 77 passes his first two seasons with the New York Jets. It wasn't Demercado.
Don't be surprised if ... Jayden Daniels remains a top-five fantasy QB
Daniels will play Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers after sitting out two games because of a left knee sprain. Since fantasy football managers must dissect everything, some wonder if Daniels will return to his old self as a runner. Daniels averaged 42.5 rushing yards in the Washington Commanders' first two games, a bit down from his extraordinary performance as a rookie. Don't read into that. Even without several key players (Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler), start Daniels with confidence.
Other QB thoughts that shouldn't surprise:
Good for the Cleveland Browns giving Oregon lefty Dillon Gabriel the start this week in London over Joe Flacco. I think we knew Flacco would not get more than a month anyway. Gabriel is obviously more mobile than Flacco, a key trait since Cleveland's offensive line has struggled, and we should not assume rookie RB Quinshon Judkins gets something like 30 rushing attempts so the Browns can ease in their new QB. Gabriel has skills. It's easy to compare him with Atlanta Falcons sophomore Michael Penix Jr., another lefty who played college ball all the way up north and way west, but Gabriel was far more experienced in college. I bump up WR Jerry Jeudy and TE David Njoku, and I bet rookie WR Isaiah Bond is a popular free agent addition next week.
Might I have been wrong to trust Cincinnati Bengals backup QB Jake Browning as competent for fantasy? Perhaps. Browning has totaled 11.3 points in his first two starts after the Joe Burrow (toe) injury, and his notable flex options (Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown) are huge disappointments. Then again, these were road games at the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos. Facing the Detroit Lions isn't exactly fun, but the game is in Cincinnati, and no, I don't think Browning is this terrible. I think the Bengals keep this week's game close, at least, and am taking the over on 49.5 combined points (Lions 35, Bengals 31?).
Don't be surprised if ... Ladd McConkey still leads the Chargers in receptions
Take nothing away from the stunning performance of WR Quentin Johnston, who finally looks legit in his third NFL season, or the steady performance of wily veteran Keenan Allen. I don't see either of them continuing to produce at this rate, though they remain solid plays for Sunday against the Commanders. QB Justin Herbert can probably throw wherever he wants against that defense. Still, McConkey is averaging a poor 8.4 points (Johnston is at 19.9 PPG!) and is starting to be dumped in ESPN leagues. That should not happen.
Last season, you might remember, McConkey wasn't exactly a star in September. In fact, he entered Week 7 averaging four receptions and 44 receiving yards. He scored two touchdowns, but fantasy managers weren't relying on him. Starting in Week 7, he averaged nearly six receptions and 85 receiving yards. He scored five touchdowns, and Johnston was inconsistent and hardly a volume option to begin with.
I am leaving McConkey in lineups this week. Johnston is talented, but if trading for a Chargers WR and including rough cost analysis, I would prefer acquiring McConkey (if he is treated as a WR4/waiver bait) over Johnston (if people assume his WR1 performance lasts for four months).
Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn't surprise:
I don't think this is the week we should expect Eagles WR A.J. Brown to thrive and become happy again. The Broncos should attach CB Pat Surtain II to Brown, so expecting double-digit targets for Brown is a mistake. I do think it is wise to trade for Brown, though. This situation with him posting on social media helps nobody. Brown will surpass 1,000 receiving yards this season, but the good stuff might not begin this week. Fantasy managers love to overreact -- just like wide receivers.
It is natural to assume Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle enjoys more targets now that Tyreek Hill (knee) is done for the season, but I think RB De'Von Achane will easily lead this team in receptions. WR Malik Washington might be a 50-catch fellow, and he is worth adding. Should we assume veteran Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, the surprising touchdown guy from last season (nine TDs on 32 receptions) is incapable of more and reasonable volume? This week, against the fine Carolina Panthers CBs, yes, QB Tua Tagovailoa probably isn't surpassing 200 passing yards. After that, perhaps.