This week's 10 Things celebrates the end of an epic drought, a heap of Western Conference centers doing fun things, good and bad signs in New York City and much more.
1. Everyone on the Sacramento Kings moves without the ball
When the Kings exploded early with a turbo-charged offense, skeptics wondered if they could sustain it. The pace was taxing. The Kings are not overflowing with supernova talent. To produce something greater than the sum of their parts, they had to run every action with screaming urgency. Fatigue would take a toll ... right?
Opponents would scout the basics: full-court assaults, the De'Aaron Fox-Domantas Sabonis pick-and-roll, and the Sabonis-Kevin Huerter hand-off dance.
Sacramento's urgency and speed never waned. Its offense got better with time, surging to No. 1 and then opening distance over the field. It added layers to every subset of actions -- and then piled layers atop those layers. The Kings are a nightmare to defend. Bodies zoom around you, and you have no real idea where they will go and when.
Huerter is the headline cutter, but everyone moves without the ball.
Sabonis has been on Keegan Murray all season to mix up the way he uses screens -- to do more than skulk behind handoffs in search of 3s, sources said. Murray is doing that now. He should land on first-team All-Rookie.
The Kings run 37 handoffs per 100 possessions, per Second Spectrum -- No. 1 by a mile. Over the past decade, only three teams have topped that number. One of them -- the 2020-21 Indiana Pacers -- orbited Sabonis.
The Kings have scored 1.09 points per possession when one of those handoffs leads directly to a shot, and a gargantuan 1.2 points per possession on all trips featuring a handoff. Both marks are No. 2 this season, and No. 3 among all teams in the past decade, per Second Spectrum.
As with Ja Morant, Fox's blinding speed makes him a threatening cutter. He tapped into that part of his game now and then before this season, but never had the co-star to make it sing. Alongside Sabonis, Fox is sneaking extra buckets:
Fox nails Devin Booker with a back screen in hopes of freeing Harrison Barnes for a layup. The Suns switch to snuff that, but the switch leaves Booker on the top side of Fox. Fox shoves Booker toward the sideline, cuts backdoor, and plops in that short jumper.
If Fox catches his guy gawking at Sabonis with the ball, poof -- he's gone:
The Kings' leaky defense makes them vulnerable to a first-round upset. They are 21-24 against opponents with .500-plus records. There's no shame in that. The Kings have never profiled as a juggernaut, or even a strong No. 2 or 3 seed. The West is muddled.
But this is a good, solid team capable of winning multiple rounds -- a nice place from which to build.
2. Nikola Jokic no-dribble post-ups
It's fair to ask whether the Denver Nuggets need Jokic to shoot more, but it's inarguable that Jokic makes the most of every attempt. He's shooting 68% on 2s and rarely dunks. Some big men shoot 68% on 2s and (almost) only dunk.
Jokic is perhaps the most inventive post scorer since peak Hakeem Olajuwon. He masters new quirks every season. One new-ish specialty: the no-dribble post-up.
Most bigs need to catch the ball underneath the basket to pull this off. Jokic is hunting zero-dribble post scores from farther away.
He notices Xavier Tillman overplaying his right shoulder -- denying middle -- and kicks the ball out to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Maybe that's just random. Maybe Jokic doesn't like what he sees behind him. But when Caldwell-Pope catches the ball, Tillman decides to three-quarter front Jokic. With the right side clear, Jokic uses Tillman's decision against him. He nudges Tillman further into a fronting position, opening a lane for Caldwell-Pope's repost. Jokic snags it with both feet outside the paint, but has room to spin, pivot, and bank a tricky floater.
Jokic catches Bruce Brown's entry at the dotted line. He feels Isaiah Hartenstein stand straight up behind him, flat-footed, and senses a chance to spin and step around him for a long-distance layup -- without one bounce.
The Nuggets have scored 1.263 points per possession when Jokic shoots out of the post or passes to a teammate who fires, per Second Spectrum. That's No. 1 this season. It's also No. 1 among players who recorded at least 200 post touches in any of the 10 seasons in Second Spectrum's database -- 274 individual player seasons.
Regardless of what happens now -- both in the MVP race (still undecided) and the playoffs -- Jokic is wrapping one of the greatest offensive seasons in history.
3. Kevon Looney's career season
Two seasons ago, Kevon Looney was a feel-good comeback story -- a low-minutes sometime-starter who persevered through injuries. Then he emerged as an unlikely Mr. Reliable -- one of five players to appear in 82 games last season. (He's on track to do that again.) He is defined in contrast to his starry, smooth teammates: ground-bound, slow, reveling in the grunt work that doesn't show up in box scores. He is a central casting unsung hero.
One cool minitwist of this season has been watching Looney push to the edges of the archetype -- and sometimes beyond them. He is not just a plucky ironman screen-setter. Looney is a flat-out good player whose contributions (gasp!) show up in regular box-score form.
Looney is averaging 7 points, 9 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in a career-high 24 minutes. He has three double-doubles in Golden State's past seven games. He's third in offensive rebounding rate, and his work there -- and his kickouts to Stephen Curry -- fueled the Warriors' must-have comeback against the New Orleans Pelicans Tuesday.
Those passing numbers translate to almost four dimes per 36 minutes -- lofty for a center. Looney orchestrates handoff sets and zig-zagging split-screen actions. He is equal partner with Draymond Green in some of the league's snazziest interior passing sequences.
Once, Looney barely played. Now it's almost impossible to imagine the Warriors without him.
The Warriors are 4-1 in their past five. Two of their final five games come against the tanking San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively. They are papering over Andrew Wiggins' absence by playing three-guard lineups, and spot-starting Jonathan Kuminga against big wing scorers.
If they get Wiggins back and avoid the play-in, do not rule out another long run. All season, the data has suggested there is a very good team -- maybe a true-blue contender -- waiting to bust out if the Warriors could stay healthy. So much in the West will be matchup dependent. There is a good chance the 4-5 first-round matchup will involve two of the Suns, Warriors and LA Clippers -- meaning one team 100 percent capable of a long playoff run will be out early.
4. Mikal Bridges' hesitation dribble
The Brooklyn Nets are 8-13 since the trade deadline, but Mikal Bridges averaging 27 points on almost 50/40/90 shooting is a huge win for Brooklyn regardless of the record. Bridges is running almost 20 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions -- nine times his career rate with the Phoenix Suns. Bridges approached that number over his final weeks in Phoenix -- with Chris Paul and Devin Booker injured -- but he wasn't scoring with quite this combination of volume and efficiency. This is pretty rare air.
Bridges was part of the "middy committee" in Phoenix, and he's eating there even more in Brooklyn; almost half his attempts have come from the midrange -- one of the highest shares in the league.
But he's flashing a crafty driving game -- including a nasty right-handed hesitation dribble:
That is a gorgeous lefty quick-shot finish ahead of Jarrett Allen's rotation.
Getting into the teeth of the defense will reveal more profitable passes, and that is the (big) next step for Bridges. He has been unabashedly score-first in Brooklyn. That's fine. Let Bridges stretch himself now. This is an ad hoc roster, the remains of a failed superteam; there is no proven No. 1 option, and not much cohesive identity.
Bridges has dished assists on just 6.9% of his pick-and-rolls with Brooklyn -- a mark that would rank 165th for the season among 170 ball handlers who have run at least 200 such plays, per Second Spectrum.
Bridges has proved a smart, adaptable player; with more reps, he'll see more reads and then start anticipating them. He'll never be a big assists guy. (He's averaging 2.7 as a Net, and 2.3 for his career.) He's 26, and doesn't profile as the No. 1 ball handler on a great team.
But imagine Bridges channeling this experience -- this aggression and responsibility -- into a secondary ballhandling role? An elite defender averaging, say, 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists on efficient shooting -- that's basically a Jaylen Brown-level player, right? Brown is in the All-NBA conversation now. Can Bridges get there?
5. Shoot it (sometimes), Alex Caruso!
Caruso is on the short list of candidates for one of four guard slots on the All-Defensive teams. Several rivals coveted him at the trade deadline. Caruso leads the league in steal rate, and the Bulls are massively better with him on the floor for the second straight season.
Could Caruso just, maybe, look at the rim sometimes? He is a decent scorer who plays as if he were a bad one. Caruso takes four shots per game. He has 73 free attempts all season. He is the guard version of P.J. Tucker, and he's too good for that.
There is calculation behind Caruso's passivity. He coexists between three hungry scorers. He wants to keep them all happy. Caruso is a skilled connector. Even when he passes up open shots, he can drive-and-kick the Bulls toward an equivalent or better look.
But on some possessions, there is no time for deference -- no better shot around the corner. On those trips, Caruso's selflessness hurts:
Credit the Bulls, I suppose, for keeping their season alive -- the minimum expectation for a team that has mortgaged so much of its future. Chicago is 10-7 in its past 17 games, a cinch for the No. 10 seed with an outside shot at No. 9 if they beat the Atlanta Hawks next Tuesday -- and win the head-to-head tiebreaker. Leaping to No. 8 will require a ton of help.
Chicago is sixth in team defense. Some of that is shooting luck, but the Bulls play hard and together.
6. The Oklahoma City Thunder bench
After a slow-ish start, the Thunder -- one of the best stories of this nutty season -- are plus-12 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort on the floor. That group works. Gilgeous-Alexander will land on some MVP ballots. Giddey has made a nice Year 2 leap. Williams has a Rookie of the Year case. They are big, relentless with the ball, switchable on defense. Isaiah Joe is a perfect perimeter reserve.
Beyond that, you feel the void where Chet Holmgren should be -- and where Mike Muscala and Kenrich Williams once were. Jaylin Williams -- starting center -- is an intriguing prospect who can shoot and pass. He has held his own. Still: He's a little overmatched as a full-time starter -- as you'd expect for a rookie second-round pick.
No one else in the carousel of prospects one tier down is ready for big minutes in big games. The perimeter reserves are hit-or-miss: Lindy Waters III, Aaron Wiggins, Tre Mann, and Ousmane Dieng -- the latter spotting minutes at center. For better or worse, Aleksej Pokusevski is back.
The Thunder have enough at the top of the roster, right now, to push almost anyone in the West in the playoffs. It's not wild to suggest they could win a round if matchups break right. The West is a mess. But if they bow out fast -- or miss the playoffs -- shaky depth will probably be one culprit.
On some level, this is life amid a rebuild. The Thunder are young, stocked with projects. They haven't reached the stage of chasing veterans in free agency.
It's a testament to what they've built already that adding even one more reliable player -- Kenrich Williams jumps out -- would make a huge difference, even with Holmgren injured.
It will be interesting to see how the Thunder approach this offseason. They have a lot of options -- including largely standing pat -- though the free agency class is pretty weak.
7. When T.J. Warren goes fast
Kevin Durant locks almost everything into place for the Phoenix Suns. He stands atop of what is probably the game's best foursome -- Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Durant, and Deandre Ayton -- though a few teams (the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and Cleveland Cavaliers among them) could put forth rival quartets.
The Suns no longer have to play Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig together so much; defenses stray from them, squeezing the paint from both sides when they share the floor. Durant adds true power forward size and (sometimes) rebounding.
The only question left is that fifth spot and the bench behind it. Phoenix has a lot of solid reserves. Say their names out loud, and you think to yourself, "Yeah, sounds good!" But they are all eighth, ninth, or 10th guys. Many have been out of rotations on worse teams. You can cobble a bench from that -- such is the luxury of having a Big Four, and perhaps keeping two of them on the floor at all times -- but it will wobble on some nights.
Ayton's play fluctuates. Paul hasn't been able to bring his "A" game every night, and he'll have to shoot and score for this team to win it all. When Booker and Durant are on the court -- with Ayton slicing down the line -- some defenses will stray from Paul almost by default, wagering on his pass-first nature. He has to let it fly.
Warren looms as one "fifth guy" possibility who might combine size, shooting, and in-a-pinch isolation scoring. He has not been the same after missing almost two full seasons with foot issues. He is not as slithery-explosive. He fell out of Monty Williams' rotation for a spell.
But he's back in, and showing more zip.
That's the Warren Phoenix needs. Like a lot of old-school midrange artists, Warren can be laborious with the ball. There is not much studio space for that now. Warren does damage when he's decisive against mismatches, and he should get plenty with defenses focused elsewhere.
8. The Julius Randle shots that make us all nervous
Admit it, New York fans: You were a teensy bit nervous even before Randle's nasty ankle sprain Wednesday night. (Fingers and toes crossed Randle returns in time for the playoffs at full health!)
You have literal nightmares of Randle jab-stepping, jab-stepping, jab-stepping against Clint Capela in the first round two seasons ago, getting nowhere, and bricking a fadeaway 18-footer. Your in-dream self huffs, THESE ALL WENT IN IN THE REGULAR-SEASON! You awake, screaming THIIIIIIBBBBBSSSS!
You're afraid it will happen again. You're not alone.
These Knicks are better and deeper, with a legitimate co-star in Jalen Brunson and more creative options beyond. Randle has cut his long 2s, swapping in more 3s and shots at the rim. He's driving with more rugged force.
But New York's offense is still a battering ram, with Randle's hunched bully-ball at the head of it. New York is fifth in points per possession despite ranking 21st in effective field goal percentage -- an improbable, delicate balance that relies on free throws, offensive boards, ball security, and one-on-one-shot-making.
For all the ways New York and Randle have evolved, there is still lots of this:
Randle has one of the two-dozen or so toughest shot diets in the league based on shot location and the proximity of defenders, per Second Spectrum. That is a foot-on-the-arc isolation against Bam Freaking Adebayo that begins with 18 on the shot clock.
That won't cut it against, say, Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen. Randle has to be more selective -- and the Knicks more polished -- in the playoffs.
9. The Minnesota Timberwolves bigs, cooperating
The Wolves are 2-1 with Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup, and their loss was in Phoenix with some kind of bug apparently ravaging the team. An offense that was so stilted in phase one of the Towns-Rudy Gobert partnership has looked more natural -- with better spacing and snappier transitions from one action to the next. It's early, but everyone at least seems more sure of themselves.
One reason: Instead of alternating between screening in the pick-and-roll and hanging in the dunker spot, Minnesota's two bigs are cooperating in some old-school Towns-centric perimeter screening actions:
Close your eyes, and you flash back to Ricky Rubio, Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic drowning defenses in that exact action -- Towns setting one screen, and then fading behind a second off-ball pick from Gobert. An open 3 for Towns is option No. 1, but that set can catapult Towns into any number of counters -- including driving and making the next pass, perhaps a lob to Gobert.
The same applies to this double-pindown for Towns:
That play unlocks driving lanes, passes, switches. Gobert's screen here dislodges Warren, allowing Towns to wriggle his way into inside position for a short jumper.
All of these actions translate to double-big pairings featuring Naz Reid -- one of the league's best reserves. At full health, the Wolves are capable of springing a playoff upset -- and maybe two. If Reid's wrist injury keeps him out, those hopes take at least a medium-sized hit. The Wolves might be able to split Reid's minutes between Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, Anthony Edwards and Taurean Prince -- meaning they might not have to dig any deeper into their bench. Regardless, Reid is potentially a big, big loss.
10. Good Anthony Davis indicators
The Los Angeles Lakers' revamped starting five -- D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Jarred Vanderbilt, Davis -- looked formidable in its first real minutes together Wednesday night in Chicago. (Reaves hitting Patrick Beverley with the vengeance "too small" was one of the season's funniest moments -- even funnier because of how actually mad the Lakers were at Beverley.)
The defense should remain stout with Davis and Vanderbilt together; the Lakers are now a bonkers plus-49 in 69 minutes with the LeBron-Davis-Vanderbilt trio. The offense had an easy flow -- more LeBron/Davis pick-and-roll, Russell toggling between ballhandling and spot-up shooting, Reaves connecting the dots. If Vanderbilt cluttering the lane becomes an issue, the Lakers have alternatives.
Davis was dominant Wednesday after taking only eight shots in LeBron's return game, and one tell you're getting dominant Davis and not merely good Davis is whether he feels comfortable seizing on chances to handle the ball -- even running the occasional pick-and-roll:
Davis at full health is pretty liquidy off-the-bounce -- confident with coast-to-coast takes, crossovers and hesitation moves. He's not a primary orchestrator, but every game presents a dozen or so organic chances to indulge -- including improvised pick-and-rolls like this. They surprise defenses, generating exploitable switches.
The Lakers enter tonight's showdown against Minnesota with something like an 80% chance to make the play-in. Win tonight, and they're back over .500 -- with improved odds at the No. 7 or 8 spots. The sixth seed is not out of reach. This team can do damage in the playoffs.