The 2023 men's NCAA tournament has reached its Final Four, with this past weekend's madness seeing the seasons of Alabama's Brandon Miller, Houston's Jarace Walker and Arkansas' Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr. ending prematurely, leaving zero projected lottery picks remaining in the field.
ESPN's NBA draft expert Jonathan Givony was glued to the action all weekend, helping provide the latest observations on Miller, Black, Smith, UConn's Jordan Hawkins and other top prospects. Also, Givony's updated top 100 can be found here.
Brandon Miller | 6-foot-9 | SG/SF | Alabama | Age: 20.3 | Top 100: No. 3
MVP honors in the SEC tournament put Miller firmly in the mix for the No. 2 pick, as he led Alabama's high-powered offense and showed significant potential as a big playmaking wing with outstanding passing and shot-making.
A groin injury slowed Miller in the NCAA tournament and might have contributed to Alabama having one of its worst offensive games of the season in its Sweet 16 loss to San Diego State. Miller shot 3-for-19 from the field with six turnovers, while the Crimson Tide were limited to 3-for-27 from beyond the arc.
Miller's shooting splits against elite competition are alarming. He converted 39% of his 2-pointers and 32% of his 3s in 19 games against top-50 opponents but shot 63% on 2s and 45% on 3s in his 18 other games, per Bart Torvik.
Miller's inability to create separation against San Diego State's defense raised many of the red flags previously identified, with his lack of explosiveness and reliance on difficult attempts around the basket and beyond the arc. Still, it was encouraging to see Miller's aggressiveness, extraordinary pass timing and creativity off a live dribble with his off-hand, having the type of vision and playmaking ability every NBA team would love to have in a 6-9 guard.
Even when he wasn't scoring, Miller continued to bring impressive intensity on the defensive end, something that had been in question before this season.
Miller, a 40% 3-point shooter before the NCAA tournament, hit a slump at a bad time for Alabama, hitting just 3-for-19 in three games from beyond the arc. That shouldn't play a large role in how he's viewed as an NBA prospect, though, considering his shot-making prowess and 86% free throw percentage. Instead, teams will wonder just how heavy a role Miller can shoulder as a half-court creator in the NBA, something his development as a passer, lack of explosiveness and still-developing frame will help determine.
Ultimately, the team that gets the No. 2 pick in the draft and what that team has on its roster -- plus what it is able to uncover regarding Miller's involvement in the shooting of Jamea Harris, for which he has not been charged -- will be deciding factors in whether it's Miller or G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson who gets the call first on draft night. Miller's season as a whole was a resounding success, even if he's disappointed in how it ended.
Anthony Black | 6-7 | PG/SG | Arkansas | Age: 19.1 | Top 100: No. 8
No one can fault Black for Arkansas' Sweet 16 exit as he had one of his best games of the season, showing vivid glimpses of what makes him one of the most versatile two-way prospects in this draft class.
On defense, he displayed intense ball pressure in the backcourt, fought over screens, recovered to protect the rim out of pick-and-roll, and generated plenty of deflections and steals with his instincts, toughness and energy.
Black was similarly aggressive on offense, something that hasn't always been the case this season, taking the ball strong to the rim and finishing with 11 free throw attempts. UConn's defense prevented him from showing off his passing, one of his best attributes, as his unselfishness passing in transition, finding the rolling big man rolling and skipping the ball to the opposite corner gives him significant potential as a big playmaker. Black shot only 30% from 3 on the season, his biggest weakness, but it was encouraging to see him not shy away from open looks both pulling up off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot situations.
Black does have some things teams can nitpick, but there's no denying he's an outstanding all-around player with an excellent feel for the game who brings significant competitiveness and winning intangibles that should allow him to have a fruitful NBA career.
Nick Smith Jr. | 6-5 | PG/SG | Arkansas | Age: 18.9 | Top 100: No. 14
An uneven season came to a disappointing end for Smith and Arkansas in the Sweet 16 with a blowout loss to UConn. Smith started the game hot but cooled, finishing his NCAA tournament shooting 6-for-23 in three games with two rebounds and an assist.
Smith never looked like himself relative to what we saw at the high school level and in his spectacular run to the Nike EYBL championship game (alongside Miller) in the summer 2021, which propelled him into consideration as the No. 1 prospect in his recruiting class. Multiple executives told ESPN they consider Smith the best NBA prospect in his class after the McDonald's and Jordan Brand Classic practices, scrimmages and JBC game, where he scored 24 points in 21 minutes.
NBA teams will want to learn more about the knee injuries Smith suffered in early November, which caused him to play just five games through mid-February. He's never been the most explosive driver or powerful finisher, even before his injuries, but shooting under 40% inside the arc was a surprising outcome this season after converting nearly 60% of his 2-pointers and living at the free throw line in previous settings.
Smith has always been at his best with the ball in his hands. His ability to change speeds, polished footwork, live-dribble passing, creative finishing and off-the-dribble shot-making shine through. Playing on a team with several teammates who are similarly ball-dominant in Black, Devo Davis and Ricky Council and not having the chance to grow through the season with his decision-making likely played a role in Smith's struggles.
He was usually relegated to standing in the corner and looked sped up when he was called upon to create in Arkansas' dysfunctional and poorly spaced offense, often settling for difficult floaters and pull-ups from outside the paint. Still only 18 years old, Smith has time to work on his frame and better channel his frenetic energy as he's nearly 18 months younger than his former teammate Miller.
Smith has looked frustrated with his struggles both on and off the floor in recent weeks, telling reporters "people don't know I've been through so much stuff this year," after Arkansas advanced in the Sweet 16, while having some emotional outbursts on the bench.
Most players in Smith's position would not have even been playing, as it was widely assumed among NBA teams that he would likely shut down his season and fully heal his injury once he was removed from the lineup for a second time. His decision to return might cost him on draft night, but it will be appreciated by some teams because of what it says about his character.
Getting back to 100% for private team workouts should help Smith show a different side of his game.
Jordan Hawkins | 6-5 | SG | UConn | Age: 20.9 | Top 100: No. 15
Hawkins took his game to another level in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, dropping 44 points on 25 field goal attempts shooting 9-for-19 (47%) for 3.
Gonzaga failed to slow Hawkins down with him running off screens, ducking behind handoffs, making side-step 3-pointers and hitting spot-ups with a quick release and exceptional footwork. He has a coveted skill set he can hang his hat on from Day 1 in the NBA.
In the game against Arkansas, Hawkins showed there's more to his play than "just" being a sniper, as he got downhill attacking overplays, sloppy closeouts, handoffs and curls with both his left and right hand, going inside the arc and drawing nine free throw attempts.
He's shooting 44% inside the arc with more turnovers than assists, and although improved, doesn't offer as much resistance defensively with his light frame, limiting his ceiling. Nevertheless, Hawkins is the plug-and-play scorer many playoff teams seek, and the 20-year-old has additional versatility and upside left with more explosiveness than one would guess at first glance.
Andre Jackson | 6-6 | PG/SG/SF | UConn | Age: 21.3 | Top 100: No. 40
Jackson's virtues as an NBA prospect were on display in UConn's four-game run to the NCAA Final Four, with spectacular plays highlighting his explosive physical attributes and defensive versatility. He had 31 assists, 28 rebounds and a barrage of winning plays in key moments.
Jackson's ability to ignite the break pushing in the open court and spray passes everywhere has factored into UConn's postseason success, as he regularly goes into the paint with outstanding speed to find shooters on the wing driving and kickout. He's a major connector in the half court with touch passes, lobs, dribble handoffs and timely cuts off the ball, especially when Gonzaga didn't guard him.
Jackson's lack of perimeter shooting (28% from 3, 65% free throws), average ballhandling in the half court, and overall struggles as a scorer haven't been as much of an issue the past two weekends as they were at points in the regular season, where his team often looked like they were playing 5-on-4 with the way opponents ignored him off the ball. Players in this mold can be difficult to hide in the NBA, but UConn has done everything it can to accentuate Jackson's strengths the past few weeks, giving him a stronger case as a first-round pick. He still has the runway of the Final Four and a potential national championship to continue to build his résumé.
Dillon Mitchell | 6-9 | SF/PF | Texas | Age: 19.4 | Top 100: No. 41
Mitchell played 13 minutes for Texas but showed some of the things that make an intriguing pro prospect with his combination of mobility, explosiveness, defensive instincts and finishing ability. He rotated for two monster weakside blocks, demonstrating his quickness covering ground and getting off his feet and ran the floor for two emphatic leakout lob finishes as well.
After playing some of Mitchell's best minutes in some time, it was surprising to see Texas' best defender sitting down the stretch as the Longhorns were repeatedly gashed off the dribble by Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller. It was clear the coaching staff lost confidence in Mitchell offensively as the season wore on, electing to play Brock Cunningham (24 years old) and Christian Bishop (22) instead, something that likely lowered the team's ceiling.
Mitchell ended the tournament shooting 3-for-3 from the field for six points in 45 minutes, and now has a difficult decision ahead for what his next move will be after a highly unproductive season that leaves question marks about what his role could be in the NBA. Mitchell will have a chance to rebuild his stock during the pre-draft process, but his experience at Texas appears to be a disappointment after the incredible promise he showed in other settings.
Keyontae Johnson | 6-6 | SF/PF | Kansas State | Age: 22.8 | Top 100: No. 42
Johnson's NCAA tournament run was more inconsistent than one might expect relative to Kansas State's Elite Eight finish, sandwiching two average showings by his standards against Kentucky and Florida Atlantic with one strong performance against Michigan State, perhaps missing an opportunity to better solidify his standing as a first-round candidate.
There's a lot to like about Johnson's profile as a 6-6 combo forward who can stretch the floor (41% from 3), finish lobs or cuts with explosiveness at the rim and offer some multi-positional defensive versatility with his 230-pound frame, toughness and length. Every NBA team more or less is looking to add players in this mold to their rosters, and the fact he's turning 23 doesn't hurt him, considering he spent almost two years away from basketball dealing with a heart issue.
Johnson went just 3-for-11 on 3-pointers and 5-for-9 from the free throw line in four NCAA tournament games, settled for tough shots, made questionable decisions and had some costly lapses off the ball defensively in highlighting his average processing speed and feel for the game. He's a little more theoretical at times than one might hope for a fifth-year senior, but NBA teams will likely account for his time away from the game and consider he could very well still be shaking the rust off.
While Johnson might not have helped his cause to be considered a sure-fire first-rounder, he's a legitimate option in the second round and shows enough glimpses of ability on both ends of the floor to be a player for NBA teams to buy into at a position of need.
Baylor Scheierman | 6-7 | SG/SF | Creighton | Age: 22.4 | Top 100: No. 46
Scheierman couldn't get his outside shot going for a third NCAA tournament game, going 1-for-4 from beyond the arc after shooting a combined 4-for-15 for 3 against NC State and Baylor. His best game came in the Sweet 16 against Princeton, in which he had a significant size advantage and was given the type of open looks he hadn't had for most of this season.
It's hard to find many 6-for-7 guards with the type of passing vision and creativity Scheierman offers, which is not surprising considering he played point guard for much of his college career. He's a maestro operating out of pick-and-roll or zoom actions, always having his head up looking to dish off with timely bounce passes, touch passes and over-the-top lobs to his big man running in full stride.
Shooting consistency has been hard to come by this season, though, as he hit 36% of his 3-pointers, a skill he would have to hang his hat on in the NBA if he is to carve out a niche.
Scheierman's defense is also somewhat of a mixed bag. He has great instincts as a rebounder or getting in passing lanes, plays with strong competitiveness and is alert off the ball. On the other hand, he has zero margin for error with his thin frame, short arms and average lateral quickness, something that was a real issue at times against a physical San Diego State team that made it difficult for him to fight over screens. While he has improved considerably in this area since South Dakota State, it could be an issue for him in the NBA because of his average physical tools.
Nevertheless, every NBA team is looking for big guards who can handle, pass, shoot and bring instincts, hustle and competitiveness, meaning he is someone who has a good chance to hear his name called on draft night, potentially early in the second round with a strong pre-draft process.
Ryan Kalkbrenner | 7-1 | C | Creighton | Age: 21.1 | Top 100: No. 54
Kalkbrenner wrapped up a strong NCAA tournament with a solid showing in a loss to San Diego State, showing his virtues as a pick-and-roll finisher, drop defender and all-around energy big man, playing 37 minutes while expending an incredible amount of intensity on both ends of the floor.
Kalkbrenner, who is mobile and has a 7-foot-5½ wingspan, missed a few good looks around the rim, which highlighted his average strength and explosiveness. He had three defensive rebounds all game -- an area of concern for him all season. Improving his shooting range after making 6-for-19 attempts from beyond the arc (but 80% of his free throws) should be a priority for him moving forward if he returns for his senior year, something that might make sense as he adds bulk and improves his physicality. The Big East Defensive Player of Year had an outstanding season and has some fans at the NBA level, but he still has room to grow to become a lock among the top 40 picks next season.
Julian Phillips | 6-8 | SF/PF | Tennessee | Age: 19.3 | Top 100: No. 56
Phillips went scoreless in Tennessee's Sweet 16 exit at the hands of Florida Atlantic. Phillips lost his starting spot because of an ankle injury in mid-February and ended up playing just 46 minutes in the NCAA tournament over three games, scoring five points on 2-for-8 shooting.
Phillips didn't have a very productive freshman season, struggling in a minor role to score with efficiency, shooting 47% inside the arc and 24% outside it. He doesn't have a consistent means of scoring, struggles to make open jumpers, lacks ballhandling ability and sees his best production via running in the open floor, crashing the offensive glass and cuts.
But Phillips' positional size, length and frame give him some long-term upside, which could be intriguing enough for a second-round flier. He looks the part of a big-time small forward prospect and sometimes plays like it, too, bringing good energy crashing the offensive glass and showing some multi-positional defensive versatility with his intensity and physical tools.
Workouts will play a key role in deciding how high in the second round Phillips could be picked, but there's a compelling case for him to return for another year in college.
Tosan Evbuomwan | 6-8 | PF | Princeton | Age: 22.1 | Top 100: No. 86
Princeton's improbable NCAA tournament run ended in the Sweet 16 with a loss to Creighton, with Evbuomwan having the best game of his college career with 24 points, 9 assists and 6 rebounds.
Evbuomwan, the Ivy League Player of the Year, is a unique player as he's usually the biggest player on the floor for Princeton, but sees most of the offense run through him on the perimeter. He's an outstanding passer who can beat slower-footed big men off the dribble, push the ball in the open court and can spray passes to open shooters on the move or find backdoor cutters with bounce passes.
Evbuomwan's frame wouldn't look out of place on a NBA floor, with long arms and room to fill out. But, he isn't the most explosive finisher and tends to shy away from contact at times.
He has good timing defensively, and has awareness and versatility to stay in front of perimeter players. He struggles to handle physicality inside and is an average rebounder despite seeing quite a few minutes at center.
Evbuomwan has gone 15-for-61 on 3-pointers (25%) in 81 college games, as well as 60% of his free throws -- the part of his game that will need the most work long-term. A somewhat similar player in Xavier Cooks just got his first crack at the NBA at age 27 after developing in Australia post-college, and it is possible Evbuomwan will need some additional seasoning as well to transition from the Ivy League to the next level. He's technically eligible for another year in college (but not in the Ivy league which doesn't allow fifth-year players), and there are already many Power 5 schools begging for his consideration.
Whatever Evbuomwan decides to do, he'll never forget the 10-day stint in March in which he led No. 15 seed Princeton to its first Sweet 16 since 1967.
Jordan Miller | 6-7 | PF | Miami | Age: 23.1 | Top 100: No. 92
Miller had his best college game Sunday, leading Miami to a 13-point second-half comeback over Texas to make the school's first Final Four appearance. He had 27 points on 7-for-7 shooting and went 13-for-13 from the free throw line.
Miami repeatedly cleared out the floor and asked Miller to take Timmy Allen, Christian Bishop and Brock Cunningham off the dribble one-on-one, something he did with great success to get to the rim and finish with his left hand.
When Texas responded by sending help, Miller showed off his passing mettle with nifty bounce passes out of pick-and-roll or a jump-pass kickout for an open 3-pointer.
Miller's performance was impressive, but it's difficult to see how translatable his game is to what his role would be in the NBA. Miller is a career 33% 3-point shooter on a pretty low volume of attempts throughout his five-year college career, sporting awkward lefty mechanics that might not translate to the NBA line. He has versatility mirroring smaller players on the perimeter and staying in front of guards, but doesn't have much size or bulk at 6-foot-7 and 195 pounds to seamlessly play as a big man, and likely at 23 years old doesn't have much more physical development in front of him.
Miller's solid feel for the game, intensity and productivity will get him looks in the pre-draft process, but he'll have to prove he can make perimeter shots at an acceptable rate to carve out a role for himself as a likely undrafted player.