In this All-Star week 10 things, we highlight a snubbed New York Knick, Kyrie Irving's fit in Dallas, Philadelphia's superstar duo, and the unkillable Washington Wizards.
1. Jalen Brunson, perfect New York Knicks point guard
We might owe Brunson an apology for leaving him off the East All-Star team. Over his last 21 games, Brunson is averaging 30.1 points on 52% shooting, including a scorching 46% on 3s. Brunson can thrive in lots of styles, but he is an ideal fit for Tom Thibodeau's Knicks.
Thibodeau's offense is a low-risk battering ram. New York pounds the paint with pick-and-rolls and more isolations than anyone but the Dallas Mavericks, per Second Spectrum. It produces heaps of free throws and offensive rebounds. One-on-one play keeps turnovers low, which in turn limits opponent fast breaks.
All of this is in Brunson's wheelhouse. He is a rugged one-on-one player with every fake and trick of footwork. He's quicker than you think, with a decisive first step.
He has hit at least 40% on catch-and-shoot 3s in four straight seasons -- including 45.4% in this one. When Julius Randle cooks, defenses stick to Brunson at the arc.
Even while Brunson is scoring 30, you seldom feel as if he's forcing it. He's unselfish, with a super high basketball IQ and inherent feel for how to preserve harmony. Pay attention whenever some Brunson two-man action -- maybe a Brunson-Randle pick-and-roll -- produces a switch. If Randle has even a slightly more favorable mismatch, Brunson will break the offense and toss him an entry pass. He'll do the same for RJ Barrett (having a meh season).
If Barrett hasn't gotten a touch in a while, Brunson might call him up for a screen -- hoping to force a switch, and hand Barrett a mismatch. He knows how to keep everyone happy.
We are eight months removed from a cacophony of misplaced hand-wringing about whether New York overpaid Brunson on a four-year, $100 million deal. Umm, no. Brunson's deal declines year over year -- ending in a $24.6 million player option in 2025-26. Brunson's contract will age into a home run, so much so that Brunson declining that option may end up a no-brainer for him. What a season.
New York leapfrogged the Miami Heat into the coveted No. 6 slot Wednesday after the revamped Brooklyn Nets upended Miami. The race among those three teams for Nos. 5-7 spots in the East looms as one juicy subplot of the stretch run.
2. Brook Lopez mixing old school and new school -- on offense
The Milwaukee Bucks are always at their best when they remember Lopez can do way more than hit spot-up 3s. The Bucks are 13-2 in their past 15, and they've found their offense after a mucky first 40-ish games. Khris Middleton is back to reorder the ballhandling hierarchy, Joe Ingles provides extra playmaking, and everyone is hitting 3s.
Lopez has sprinkled in more of his trademark slow-motion, loping drives.
"Drive" doesn't even really describe these things. They are adventures -- journeys. They should come with a soundtrack of "thud" noises. Lopez is a deft pump-and-go ball handler, with good vision, touch, and a knack for side-stepping charge-takers.
The Bucks should be more diligent feeding Lopez against mismatches, or when defenses stick centers on Giannis Antetokounmpo -- leaving smaller guys on Lopez. The Nets-era post skills are still there, only Lopez is meaner now:
Milwaukee has scored 1.322 points per possession when Lopez shoots out of a post-up or passes to a teammate who launches -- third among 74 players with at least 40 post touches, per Second Spectrum. Using Lopez (and Bobby Portis) this way gets Milwaukee back to its north star -- a bully-ball identity that won the Bucks the title in 2021.
3. What Kyrie Irving brings the Dallas Mavericks
They've barely worked in tandem, but Irving and Luka Doncic are already providing glimpses of how they amplify each other -- and how they could turn the Mavericks' offense into a more diverse and borderline unguardable machine. Irving props up the offense when Doncic rests -- long a dead zone. (He has nice chemistry with Christian Wood.) That was the low-hanging fruit.
Just having both of them out there changes the feel of the game. Even if Irving chills in the corner while Doncic dances up high -- and that's often been the case early -- the defense knows another superstar is over there, waiting, itching to kick it into gear as an outlet. Anxiety distracts, and distractions lead to breakdowns.
Irving can also fly up from the corner, curl around a pindown on the wing, catch a pass from Doncic, and knife into the paint. If the defense converges, he can ping it back to Doncic with an advantage. Irving is a canny cutter when he wants to be; Doncic has already found him on backdoor jaunts.
Irving enlivens a moribund transition game:
That is Irving at his chaotic best, sprinting ahead of the offense. He doesn't have or need a plan. Irving knows the danger he poses at full throttle -- that the defense will surround him, and someone will pop open in his wake. He also provides midrange weaponry from a team that had none outside Doncic's pivoty paint game.
This, though, is the real gold -- the trump card, the weapon both must commit to building:
Doncic and Irving have run only three pick-and-rolls between them through two games, per Second Spectrum, but you see the power of it already. They can both act as either screener or ball handler. Irving is well-practiced as a screener -- a threat flaring for 3s or slicing into the lane for 4-on-3s. Switch, and Doncic can brutalize mismatches. Defenses will try to thwart this action by putting wings on both guys -- enabling risk-free switching -- but that's easier said than done.
4. The Irving shots you forget
Irving is perhaps the greatest ball handler in modern NBA history and one of the best pull-up shooters of all time. His three-plus pseudo-seasons as architect and then destroyer of the greatest failure in league history were also probably his best ever as a shooter.
Irving has hit 50% or better from floater range in each of the past three seasons, and more than half his long 2s. That is Nowitzkian stuff from someone almost a foot shorter than Dirk Nowitzki. I voted Irving third-team All-NBA in 2020-21. He is a sensational offensive player.
But even leaving aside the team-torpedoing chaos, I've long felt Irving doesn't have quite the impact on winning his numbers suggest. The gap isn't huge. Irving is a massively helpful supporting star. His numbers indicate a foundational superstar -- an annual All-NBA cinch -- and Irving has never been quite that.
Dating to his time in Cleveland with LeBron James, Irving's teams have won at the same rate regardless of whether he plays or sits. That may say more about the talent Irving has had around him than it does about Irving.
Some of it is his size and so-so defense. He sometimes breaks schemes and plays. On offense, his playmaking is scattershot; Irving is a good passer, but not a great one.
Some of it is his penchant for ultra-difficult midrange shots:
When Irving makes these tilting, half-blind leaners, announcers gush about his ability to do the impossible. When he misses, they mostly ignore it. The game proceeds. A lot of us probably process things this way. In recalling the spectacular and forgetting the expected, we trick ourselves into thinking these are efficient shots: Oh, that's a layup for Kyrie Irving!
For his career, Irving has made about 45% on both long 2s and floater-range shots. That means he misses 55% of the time. That accuracy is very good considering the degree of difficulty. Irving's ability to generate a 45% shot from nothing becomes more valuable in the playoffs.
But in the aggregate, those shots amount to less than one point per possession. Irving has never gotten to the line all that much, and his rim attempts have fallen to career-low levels over the past two seasons.
5. Delon Wright, stabilizer
Mock the Washington Wizards' infatuation with the middle all you want -- and we might have to rename the Eastern Conference play-in tournament the Ted Leonsis Cherry Blossom Invitational -- but the Wiz blitzed the softest part of their schedule to climb into the No. 9 seed.
They are 10-4 in their past 14 games. They've played six more road than home games, and their schedule remains pretty light out of the break; six of their next nine games are against the (sad) Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors, and Atlanta Hawks -- play-in rivals. (Thank the basketball gods for the play-in and the fake-important March and April games it hatched: Buckle up, this could determine home court in the No. 9-versus-No. 10 game -- and which team governor pockets an extra $1 million! Legacies are on the line!)
The Wiz cobbled those wins despite injuries to several key players. They have a better point differential than the Golden State Warriors.
They're also 16-9 since Wright returned from a two-month injury absence. That's not to suggest Wright is driving this, but he's the kind of reliable two-way backup you don't appreciate until an overwhelmed third-stringer is filling his minutes.
Wright is shooting 53% on 2s and dishing 6 dimes per 36 minutes. He's an elite rebounder, rangy enough to play alongside another point guard if need be. Wright commits very few turnovers and conjures a ton on defense; he's swiping 3.2 steals per 36 minutes, tops among all players.
He's also sneakily crafty:
Wright has long been a master of rejecting screens. It's a way to wrong-foot defenders readying to duck under picks. That lefty, one-handed gather is a beauty.
The Wiz are plus-2.5 points per 100 possessions with Wright on the floor. They won't go quietly into the lottery.
6. Jaylen Brown's stalled playmaking
If you thought the Phoenix Suns midnight deal for Kevin Durant was dramatic, imagine what a leaguewide Durant sweepstakes in July would have been like. For the best players and teams, the postseason can change everything. It can define careers, warp the way teams feel about their superstars or vice versa, erase years of careful planning.
Last summer, I argued against Boston dealing Brown to the Brooklyn Nets in any realistic package for Durant. (And remember, such packages likely would have included at least Marcus Smart and multiple unprotected first-round picks and swaps.)
These are brutally difficult decisions. Boston was coming off a Finals run, and figured to enter this season slight championship favorites. Durant is aging, with a somewhat concerning injury dossier and a history of wanderlust. Even with Brown's potential unrestricted free agency looming after next season, I (slightly) favored continuity and youth over a short-term boost -- even a big one -- in Boston's championship chances. (The possibility, even tiny, of Brown making All-NBA also factored in; doing so would qualify him for a supermax extension from Boston -- and only Boston.)
There were also signs Brown might reach new levels as a playmaker -- the last frontier for him. Brown's playmaking has often been stilted. He might hold the ball a beat too long, miss an open pass, or dish it too late. But last season was Brown's best as a passer. He was only 25; surely there was more to come.
So far, there has not been. Brown's pick-and-roll volume has dipped. His assists are down a tick, and his turnovers are up; Brown has 155 assists and 146 turnovers.
Brown doesn't appear to register that Miles McBride has executed that switch, and might be waiting to intercept that lollipop. Brown operates score-first, and he should; he's a physical and sometimes artful finisher in traffic. But that can get him in trouble when the defense is up to the task, leaving Brown airborne without a plan:
Boston has the best record in the NBA. Most models have them as the title favorite. At worst, they reside in the innermost sanctum of contenders. But Brown's playmaking has been disappointing, and will be worth watching when the games matter.
7. Watching James Harden and Joel Embiid problem solve
One of the league's great night-to-night joys is watching these two basketball geniuses absorb and dissect every potential coverage of their dominant two-man game. The best-case outcome for any Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll is an easy shot for Embiid -- a dunk, layup, one of his pet little 12-foot jumpers.
Postseason defenses will use every gambit imaginable to vaporize those looks -- including swarming Embiid early, and forcing Philly's wings to make 3s. The Sixers might see three or four different anti-Embiid strategies in one five-minute span. To wit:
Boston's defense sticks to Embiid and effectively dares Harden to drive. This would have been unthinkable three seasons ago, but Harden is not the same rumbling tank. Toronto did this pretty well in last season's playoffs, staying attached to Embiid while showing Harden enough half-rotations and long arms to confuse him at times.
If that fails, perhaps try switching?
Teams would have feared switching almost any big man onto peak Harden. Sometimes Harden still wins, with pointy-elbowed drives and step-back 3s.
The main problem is on the back end: a guard on Embiid. That's untenable. Boston sends Malcolm Brogdon help in the form of a blind double, banking on Embiid's occasional wild turnovers. Embiid escapes -- barely.
On the very next possession, yet another variation:
That's the switch and scram: Brogdon takes Embiid again, only Blake Griffin scampers over to rescue him. That second switch often requires two long rotations. Little creases open mid switch. Exploiting those creases is the final exam for most offenses. It requires pinpoint timing, accurate passing, coordinated cutting.
It helps a lot if you know the switch-and-scram is coming. The best defenses will toggle schemes so you never really know what's next. If you've reduced them to one tactic, you've won.
Most analysis of the East has Boston and Milwaukee in their own tier. They are the two best teams. Fair enough. Philadelphia does not deserve the benefit of the doubt. Harden's track record in the highest-stakes games speaks (poorly) for itself. The Sixers have blown two golden chances -- two seasons in which the brackets broke right for them -- to make their first conference finals since prime Allen Iverson. (In fairness, Embiid missing the first two games of last season's second-round flameout against Miami had the Sixers trudging uphill from the jump.)
Their respective schedules suggest the Cleveland Cavaliers still have something like a 50-50 shot to jump ahead of Philly into the No. 3 spot -- despite the Sixers' critical head-to-head win over Cleveland on Wednesday.
All that said, the Sixers should be insulted by their placement in this discussion. They have everything they need to take the next step -- including a complementary star duo.
8. Trendon Watford in space
Even in trying seasons, every team has unsung heroes who help keep things afloat -- and maybe become cult fan favorites. Watford might be that guy for these middling Portland Trail Blazers -- someone for fans to latch on to when they don't want to think about how in the heck these guys can maximize the rest of Damian Lillard's prime. (Lillard might be having his best-ever season. He's averaging 31 points on 46.7% shooting, including 58% on 2s -- plus nine free throw attempts. Those are all career highs. Portland is plus-3 per 100 possessions with Lillard on the floor, and minus-5.6 when he sits.)
Watford's floater emerged as a weapon last season, and it's even more accurate now; he has hit 58% from floater range, per Cleaning The Glass. That alone makes him a dangerous screening partner for Lillard and Anfernee Simons. Overplay that shot, and Watford has proven a skilled passer with the game in motion:
Portland is plus-18 in the 249 minutes Watford has played with Lillard. In the end, Watford may be an undersized backup center who can spot you minutes at power forward. That's fine. He's skilled enough to make a long career out of that. The Blazers have Watford locked into a minimum contract though 2024-25.
9. The Dillon Brooks the Memphis Grizzlies need
Even if Brooks didn't cross lines of acceptable physicality, he would be among the league's most polarizing players -- including among Memphis fans. Brooks is shooting 39%, and he shoots a lot. Brooks misses so often, from so many places, the Grizzlies almost have to pair him with Steven Adams -- so Adams can turn misses into offensive boards.
Brooks shoots on almost 63% of pick-and-rolls, fifth-highest among 190 players who have run at least 100 such plays, per Second Spectrum. And fifth is low for him! The Grizzlies have averaged just 0.81 points when Brooks shoots out of the pick-and-roll or dishes to a teammate who fires -- 180th out of those same 190 players. (File this away: OG Anunoby ranks dead last.)
But the Grizzlies' perimeter rotation beyond Brooks consists mostly of undersized and/or below-average defenders. The acquisition of Luke Kennard added another target.
The Grizzlies need Brooks' size and toughness. They just need him to shoot less, so they can distribute some of his attempts -- maybe three or four per game -- to better shooters. Give me more of this:
Brooks runs into that catch at full speed, roasts the flat-footed defense, and hits the paint with at least one eye on something other than the basket. That's a nice dump-off to Xavier Tillman. The same concept can work with Tillman setting a pindown for Brooks there.
Brooks' assist numbers have ticked up (a little) over the season. He has this in his game.
10. Staggering dilemmas
The choice of how strictly to stagger two ball-dominant starters isn't always as simple as it seems. A full-on stagger -- the way Mike D'Antoni managed Chris Paul and Harden in Houston -- naturally reduces the time the stars play together. Some teams are better equipped to withstand extended stretches with two stars on the bench. The overlong regular season offers room to experiment. (This is the main justification for Doc Rivers' trotting out lineups featuring neither Harden or Embiid.)
There are brewing staggering situations with both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic. It's too early to draw conclusions, but I shudder whenever Chris Finch sits Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards together -- and I'll probably feel queasy about it until Karl-Anthony Towns returns. That said, Minnesota's bench mobs feature four nifty ball movers: Jaylen Nowell, Naz Reid, Jordan McLaughlin, and in their win over Dallas on Monday, the indispensable Kyle Anderson. Maybe that's enough to survive? By the way: Minnesota is 15-8 in its past 23 games, with a top-10 defense. This is a big, big moment for Towns.
The Magic are 18-15 since bottoming out at 6-20, chiseling within sniffing distance of the play-in. The returns of Cole Anthony and (finally!) Jonathan Isaac have crowded the rotation, and in an effort to get everyone run, Jamahl Mosley has risked minutes with both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner on the bench. Orlando is bleeding points in those minutes; opponents have outscored the Magic by almost 8 points per 100 possessions in that 18-15 run with both Banchero and Wagner resting, per Cleaning The Glass.
It's hard with so many deserving players (Isaac is right back to being an all-position wrecker on defense), but Mosley may want to keep one young star forward on the floor at all times.