Which team will steal the headlines at the NBA trade deadline? With the deadline nearing on Feb. 9 at 3 p.m. ET, front offices will be finalizing decisions that could affect a potential playoff run or a build for the future.
So, which teams will make moves?
With the Western Conference appearing to be as wide open as it has been in years, it could take one move by any of the top six contenders, such as the Dallas Mavericks, to establish themselves as postseason front-runners.
Then there are the Los Angeles Lakers, who are hovering near the line of the play-in bracket and face the possibility of playing meaningless basketball in the final month. Would one big trade be enough to propel them into the ranks of serious competitors in the West? Or, is their dwindling window with LeBron James under contract enough of a reason to make a risky move?
In the Eastern Conference, there are probably more teams looking to give up players than to deal for a big addition. The contenders in the East, such as the Boston Celtics, seem to be already established, while a handful of mediocre teams, such as the Chicago Bulls, might have more to gain by stocking up on future assets.
Our panel of experts breaks down the five biggest questions ahead of the trade frenzy:
Which title contender most needs to make a trade at the deadline?
Brian Windhorst: The Miami Heat have one of the worst benches in the league, especially in scoring. They're right up against the luxury tax and might want to save their trade chips for bigger prizes down the line. The Heat can hope for better health -- they're certainly due for it -- but could really use another rotation player who can put the ball in the basket.
Dave McMenamin: Luka Doncic is already a perennial MVP candidate and makes a case for "best player on the floor" status in just about every game he plays in. He is a valuable cornerstone for the Dallas Mavericks franchise, and his prime should not be squandered. Besides having the obvious business sense to surround Doncic with talent and assure he will sign an extension when he can opt out of his current deal in the summer of 2026, it's a wise basketball decision to make a move, too. The championship is there to be had this year. A couple of moves could get any team with a lead guy as special as Doncic in prime position for a deep playoff run.
Ohm Youngmisuk: The LA Clippers need a point guard and a backup big who can rebound and protect the rim. Terance Mann is now the starting point guard with Reggie Jackson coming off the bench and John Wall injured. During the Kawhi Leonard-Paul George era, the Clippers have needed a point guard who can facilitate and get them easier shots when opposing defenses lock down on Leonard and George; a point guard who can hit outside shots and one who could be a veteran leader in the locker room. On the front line, Ivica Zubac has been stellar this season but has shown signs of slowing down because of injury and heavy minutes early on. Coach Ty Lue does like to go small with an all-wing lineup, but that is also when the Clippers can get hurt on the glass.
Kevin Pelton: At the risk of stating the obvious, the Phoenix Suns have to find a deal for Jae Crowder, who hasn't played all season while away from the team. Phoenix appears to have weathered the worst of the injuries that cratered depth in early January, but with Chris Paul's age and Cameron Payne still sidelined, more guard depth would be helpful. And the Suns should at least explore a bigger deal to add a difference-maker with no clear favorite in the West.
Bobby Marks: The Memphis Grizzlies don't have to go all-in (hello OG Anunoby) at the deadline but should consider adding veteran depth to their backcourt. Yes, guard Danny Green is set to return from injury, but does he have more value on the court or in a trade? Memphis has all its first-round picks in the next seven years, including a 2024 future first from Golden State. Trading away draft picks would signal a shift in how Memphis has built its roster, as 11 out of its 15 players under contract were drafted by the Grizzlies.
Which team on the fringe of the playoff race should trade away players?
Windhorst: The Utah Jazz have put up a respectable fight, but their plan is built around getting help in the draft and the medium term. Danny Ainge will play it close to the vest and will work some leverage, but in the end, he's known for his "trader" track record.
McMenamin: After trading away both Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell in the offseason, the Jazz have been one of the feel-good stories this season with an unplanned level of success as the basketball version of Broadway's "The Producers." But now's the time to see if Mike Conley can return future picks or younger players, and if there's no plan to extend Jordan Clarkson, it's time to move him, too.
Youngmisuk: Sure, Toronto Raptors president Masai Ujiri is as competitive as they come, but he can't be happy competing for a play-in spot. With Fred VanVleet's $22.8 million player option coming up and his eligibility to sign a four-year, $114 million extension, Ujiri has to figure out what to do with his point guard along with Gary Trent Jr. Ujiri is as shrewd a dealer as there is, so he will get good value back in return should he decide to deal. All the motivation he should need is increasing Toronto's lottery odds for Victor Wembanyama.
Pelton: The limited number of teams out of playoff contention creates an opportunity for a team to pivot and command maximum value from teams hoping to put themselves over the top, particularly in the West. The Toronto Raptors look best positioned to take advantage of these conditions and move players at the peak of their potential value.
Marks: Just when we think the Chicago Bulls are turning the corner by winning three straight, they squander a 21-point lead to Indiana in a loss and then fall at Charlotte. While we loathe the phrase "blow it up," the body of work over the first 50 games confirms Chicago is at best a play-in team. The big question is if a roster shuffle occurs at the deadline or if the Bulls front office takes a more patient approach and waits until the offseason. Nikola Vucevic is set to become an unrestricted free agent. DeMar DeRozan is entering the last year of his contract, and Patrick Williams is rookie extension eligible. There is also the $220 million owed to Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball in the next four years. Ball has not played in an NBA game since last January.
Who is the biggest name who will be traded at the deadline?
Windhorst: I'm not sure there will be any big names. I think you're looking at a cross-section of role players, mostly wings, who will get moved. At this point, and that has to be said because things change quickly, I'm not feeling a lot of heat around this one. Having said that, keep an eye on Jerami Grant in Portland. If he doesn't sign an extension by deadline week, teams are going to sniff there.
McMenamin: John Collins, the Atlanta Hawks frontcourt player, has been linked to trade rumors for months, and with Atlanta's current mix delivering less-than-inspiring results this season, it would be a smart play to get something for Collins in hopes of a better fit now, or even get back future draft flexibility on a picks-heavy haul.
Youngmisuk: Bojan Bogdanovic might not be the biggest name, but he's big enough for several contending teams who need a 6-foot-7 forward who is averaging a career-high 21.2 points. Bogdanovic would be a great addition, especially to a team like the Mavericks, who are in dire need of another scorer who can hit clutch shots to help Doncic.
Marks: Fred VanVleet. The Raptors guard has gone on record to say he will likely become an unrestricted free agent in the offseason and bypass an extension during the season. While that alone should not raise a red flag for the Raptors front office, the price tag on his next contract should. In the past four seasons, VanVleet ranks second behind Philadelphia's James Harden in total minutes played. The stumbling block for a team interested in the 2022 All-Star is the players and draft assets required in exchange for a player who will become a free agent in July. For example, does it make sense for a team such as Orlando to offer draft picks and players, when it could attempt to sign him outright with cap space in the offseason?
Pelton: Since VanVleet is the best choice, I'll go with the cheeky route: Blake Griffin. The Celtics might trade the six-time All-Star, who has played just three games since Jan. 5, if they add another big man as insurance behind Al Horford and Robert Williams III.
Should the Lakers go all-in and trade their future first-round draft picks (2027, 2029) at the deadline?
Windhorst: They have to have something to go all-in for. The Lakers have a couple of problems. First, vice president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka has said on the record that moving those picks has to vault them into contender status. This is a high bar. Second, trade terms are inflated with stars going for three-plus firsts and teams wanting multiple firsts for role players. I doubt these terms will last, but that's where they are. So yeah, Lakers, go all-in, but it's not a great time to be staking that position.
McMenamin: Split the difference. Have Pelinka tell James, essentially, "one for you, one for me," by packaging one pick (protected to some extent) along with one or more of L.A.'s expiring contracts to get a clear impact player in return. And save the other pick to have down the line when a rebuild will need to happen once James is no longer with the franchise.
Youngmisuk: Only if they can add the type of big-name superstar who would immediately make the Lakers a title contender and give them a big three. Unfortunately for the Lakers, those kinds of stars don't appear to be available at this deadline. Giving up one of the two first-round picks for a player who can help them get above the play-in and give James a postseason chance is worthwhile, though.
Pelton: The Lakers should trade a first-rounder only if they can get a player better than who they could realistically sign in free agency this summer. Adding Rui Hachimura -- a restricted free agent at season's end -- alters that equation. Still, the Lakers could probably re-sign Hachimura and make a credible offer for, say, unrestricted free agent Gary Trent Jr. If the Lakers can't land a star better than Trent, they'd be better off pursuing short-term upgrades using second-round picks and avoiding digging a bigger hole in terms of future first-rounders.
Marks: Unless there's an unlikely scenario in which Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal or Zach LaVine is available, the answer is no to both first-round picks. That does not mean the Lakers shouldn't explore a trade that involves either a 2027 or 2029 first. For example, is a package of Patrick Beverley, Damian Jones and a 2027 top-five-protected first (it would turn into a 2027 second) too rich for Bogdanovic? A player like Bogdanovic significantly upgrades the roster. The unknown, however, is if it will get the Lakers closer to the top teams in the Western Conference.
Which title contender can afford to stand pat at the deadline?
Windhorst: The Philadelphia 76ers look like they're in pretty good shape at the moment. They have good depth, are healthy and are getting very good production down the line. The 76ers probably feel the best about their roster, as long as they can stay healthy, of course.
McMenamin: The Denver Nuggets already have roster balance and playoff experience with their core as currently constructed. Of course any team can benefit from adding a switchable, two-way wing with shooting capabilities, so if general manager Calvin Booth finds a guy like that to be had, go for it. But the Nuggets have enough as is to make a title run.
Marks: That is right, I am putting the 76ers up there with Boston as a team that can contend for a championship without making a deadline deal. Of course, health will play a major role, but since starting the season 12-12, Philadelphia is a league-best 20-4. The only move that should be considered is the financial benefit of dropping below the luxury tax. The 76ers would receive a $16 million tax distribution if they shed $1.17 million in salary.
Pelton: I agree with Bobby that the Sixers don't have a glaring need to fill at the deadline. Still, in an NBA season marked by parity and the absence of dominant teams, everybody could use some kind of an upgrade to maximize their chances of playing into June.
Youngmisuk: I agree with KP. In a season that is up for grabs on both sides -- as strong as Boston has been -- every contender could really add a significant player who could be the difference in winning a championship.