This week we highlight a revamped offensive assignment for Trae Young, Rui Hachimura's ups and downs, and the nose-diving Pelicans.
1. When the Atlanta Hawks get moving
The Hawks are 6-2 in their last eight, and their offense -- moribund much of the season -- is humming. Some of that is unsustainable shooting; the Hawks in that stretch have hit 42% on 3s, 52% from floater range, and 59% on long 2s. It feels like Dejounte Murray hasn't missed a runner in weeks.
Nothing else about Atlanta's fundamentals has changed. They are still Team Mid-Range. They are last in passes per game overall, and in the bottom five even in this stretch.
But the Hawks and Trae Young have shown glimpses of the snappier style that drove their conference finals run two seasons ago. There has been a little less your turn/my turn between Young and Murray, and a little more of this:
Young gets off the ball earlier -- loading that slingshot pass before he arrives at the foul line. Jalen Brunson is leaning away from Bogdan Bogdanovic in the corner -- and toward the paint -- when Young throws it. That nuance of timing forces Brunson to plant, pivot, and make a mad scramble toward Bogdanovic. He's easy prey for a blow-by, igniting the kind of drive-and-kick sequence that invigorates the Hawks.
Young is incredible, but no one wants to watch the same guy dribble the air out of the ball every possession -- especially when everyone has to cover for him on defense.
The Hawks have positioned Young in the corners more often when Murray orchestrates. In the past, Young has spent most of his off-ball time near mid-court -- a bystander. He's a more active threat in the corners. He can fly off pindowns, set random screens, attack close-outs:
Young is also pushing the pace more. He is always at his best doing that -- either one-on-one, or with John Collins and Clint Capela setting their patented double-drag for him. Defenses meet Young early, and he can freeze them with hesitation moves:
Even when Young hunts his own in semi-transition, it just feels more organic -- and less like one player puppeteering.
This is a pivotal two weeks for Atlanta. Turmoil shook every level of the organization. The Collins trade rumors are hotter than ever. And yet, there is a good team here; their starting five is one of the league's best lineups, and their bench is mostly healthy.
What kind of team do they want to be?
2. Cleveland's defense is more than size
Cleveland's defense -- No. 1 in points allowed per possession -- is legit. We are two seasons into this, and there is nothing to suggest anything fluky.
Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen get most of the credit. Mobley is so fast for his size. Combined, they are gigantic. When they are both on patrol with their arms spread, they disrupt the expectations of ball handlers. The NBA unfolds in patterns. Teams use the same actions over and over. Ball handlers know: When I get here, this pass is available.
Mobley and Allen upend those assumptions. Suddenly there are arms and hands where there is supposed to be empty space.
But Cleveland's guards are doing their part. When they opened the season defending with new urgency, it was tempting to chalk it up to week one enthusiasm: This will fade. It hasn't.
Holy hell. Allen and Mobley switch to contain that pick-and-roll. Isaac Okoro digs down to bother Julius Randle, leaving Jalen Brunson open one pass away. Darius Garland reads that, and is primed to rotate from his man -- Immanuel Quickley -- to Brunson. Donovan Mitchell reads that, and zips from Quentin Grimes in the corner up to Quickley. Okoro rushes diagonally to meet Grimes on the catch. Boom, boom, boom -- nailed it.
Mitchell -- nine months removed from an embarrassing postseason effort -- denies RJ Barrett on three separate handoff attempts. Garland does the same to Grimes before the Knicks finally execute one. From there, the Cavs switch twice -- blink and you'll miss Garland and Mitchell swapping assignments -- and Allen swallows Grimes whole.
Okoro is up to 34% from deep, and neutral fans should root for him to cinch up that third wing spot. Cleveland assigns him the best perimeter player regardless of position. Against New York, that's Brunson. Okoro is 6-5, and might be best hounding guys his size or smaller. But the Cavs need someone to guard 6-8 wing types. That is Okoro by default. We'll see how Dean Wade and Ricky Rubio enter this equation.
Regardless, Cleveland will not relent.
3. So, umm, what exactly is Jalen Suggs?
Suggs has played 72 games, so it's too soon to really worry. But even amid early-career hiccups, it's nice to watch a young player and think: I can see what this guy will be on a good team. That's hard to do with Suggs.
He's averaging six dimes per 36 minutes, but he's not quite a point guard. Suggs shares the floor with either Markelle Fultz or Cole Anthony, and those guys run the show (along with Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero.) On a lot of possessions, Suggs is barely involved -- off to the side in a spot-up role. He's not well-suited for that role right now; Suggs is 68-of-291 career (23.4%) from deep. No one guards him out there.
That shaky jumper limits Suggs' viability as a point guard. Defenders duck screens against him, walling off the paint and allowing help defenders to stay home.
Lots of point guards -- including Fultz -- face the same strategy. Some beat it with sheer speed -- winning the race to the spot underneath the screen. But it's hard to do that every time. You need craft -- changes of pace, shoulder fakes, the ability to bob and weave behind successive screens. Fultz has that. Suggs doesn't -- yet.
He's a full-speed-ahead player. That works in transition, where his passing shines. In the half-court, he sometimes sprints ahead of teammates.
Orlando drafted Wagner three spots after Suggs, so there's a no-harm, no-foul element if Suggs ends up underperforming expectations. (The Magic surely notice Josh Giddey -- No. 6 -- thriving in Oklahoma City.) We're a long way from final judgment. Time will bring clarity.
4. One good story amid the misery of the Houston Rockets
Alperen Sengun is good -- now. Sengun is up to 15 points, 9 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on 59% shooting on 2s. He's a threat in the post, mixing in more power with his finesse and unconventional pivoty foot work. He often merits a double team -- unlocking his passing, probably his best skill. Even his turnovers are down -- despite each of Sengun's feet appearing to have its own independent nervous system.
The Rockets are a semi-functional offensive team with Sengun on the floor, and if you watch Houston, you know that's a massive accomplishment. You see Sengun directing traffic on both ends, trying to restore order to chaos -- cajoling cutters, picking which side of the floor to run plays, calling out what the opposing offense might do. If the Rockets wanted to win, they'd run more offense through him. You sense Sengun knows this. Hell, players on other teams have said it publicly.
Pair him with more accomplished passers, and Sengun will feast in the pick-and-roll. His weirdo push shot is a trademark -- Sengun's answer to Nikola Jokic's running floater and Joel Embiid's 13-foot jumpers:
Almost 35% of Sengun's shots have come from floater range -- a huge number -- and he has hit 49% from there, per Cleaning The Glass.
The knock is defense -- that Sengun is lead-footed, unable to stay in front of ball handlers or protect the rim. That's overblown. Sengun is a minus defender now. He's not a leaper. But the anticipation that makes him a huge plus on offense helps on defense too; Sengun is mastering the rhythms of NBA offenses, and arriving more often to the right place at the right time.
He's getting better going straight up at the rim. Opponents are not shooting some ridiculous percentage in the restricted area with Sengun nearby. Advanced stats paint him as an average-ish defender. That's overstating it, but Sengun has the tools and will to get there. He'll look better when Houston's guards learn to get over screens -- so Sengun is not on an island.
Sengun has a star potential on offense. Jabari Smith Jr. has flashed some catch-and-go verve. Houston's shoot-first guards draw most of the attention, but I'm excited to see how the Smith-Sengun front-court -- throw in more Tari Eason! -- coalesces.
5. One good story amid the misery of the Charlotte Hornets
P.J. Washington is tough to evaluate. He's decent at lots of things, great at nothing. His role has fluctuated a lot.
Washington posted up some as a rookie, but rarely does so anymore. The Hornets no longer use him as backup center. Washington is an above-average 3-point shooter, but doesn't get a ton of pick-and-pop chances with Mason Plumlee -- having a sneaky good season -- as Charlotte's screen-setting hub.
He can switch across all three front-court positions, but he's not a stopper at any of them.
The numbers won't show it, but Washington has improved at some of the game's less glamorous aspects. He's more engaged on defense, and more in tune to connective passes:
Washington has a knack for spotting those entry passes in the flow, and slinging them off the bounce.
With LaMelo Ball out, the Hornets have shifted Washington some ball handling -- including scripted pick-and-rolls:
He throws soft lobs, and has hit 41% from floater range on more attempts than prior seasons. That's not a go-to weapon, but Washington stretching himself on an awful team will pay off when he's on a good one again. He has already run 78 pick-and-rolls, more than double his number in any prior season, per Second Spectrum.
Several rival teams have held internal discussions about Washington, but their latest read is that Charlotte is leaning toward re-signing Washington this summer.
6. Rui Hachimura's passing
The Los Angeles Lakers dealing a deep bench player and three second-round picks for Hachimura is a good deal -- and about as well as the Washington Wizards could do. If there were a first-round pick out there for Hachimura, the Wizards would have it.
Hachimura is a big name, aglow with recent lottery pick sheen, but the league has seen his warts. He has missed a ton of games. The Lakers (or someone else) have to pay him now.
That said, the last five weeks have been the best of Hachimura's career. Over his last 15 games, Hachimura has averaged 15 points on 49% shooting. He has been more forceful and decisive.
The Lakers need big shooting wings next to LeBron and Anthony Davis. Hachimura is perhaps not quite that. He's more power forward than wing, probably best-suited to defend the same players as LeBron. He's shooting 34% from deep, and 35.6% for his career -- on middling volume.
But he's 6-8, and lineups featuring two guards, Hachimura, LeBron, and Davis are worth investigating. Hachimura can switch some on defense. LeBron will feed him open 3s. The fit might not be perfect, but proven 3-and-D wings are hard to acquire. Hachimura can shoulder some of the scoring load when LeBron rests, though it will be interesting to see how he meshes around the Russell Westbrook-Anthony Davis two-man game that rampaged before Davis's injury.
Hachimura has to improve his passing against good defenses. He's averaged 1.4 assists for his career. That's alarming, and appears to be a combination of will and vision. Hachimura is slow to see passes, and often makes them late -- without understanding how the defense will rotate:
The lob to Kyle Kuzma is there. It's not an easy pass, but it's one Hachimura has to make. To beat playoff defenses, you need everyone to be a good decision-maker with the game in motion.
Even if the Wiz got fair return for Hachimura, the deal still stings. It marks another miss in the lottery for a team that really needs some hits, and Washington didn't receive anyone who figures to help beyond this season.
7. Jalen Duren, doing stuff!
Duren turned 19 (!) in November. He was bound to struggle with the nuances of defense. If he proved a viable screen-and-drive threat and survived his rookie season, that would count as success.
Duren is as explosive as advertised. He will be a lob threat for the next decade. His second jump comes in a blink; he's fifth in offensive rebounding rate, and shooting 72% at the rim.
Duren is also starting to show more craft:
The Pistons won't want Duren taking many 12-footers. But it's a useful tool, one that flows from Duren's core skill -- rim-running. The Chicago Bulls take that away, and Duren whirls into post position. That same technique would be handy against switches.
Duren is fast; if behemoths bite on his head fakes, he can roast them on drives:
The Pistons view Duren as a central part of their future alongside Jaden Ivey and Cade Cunningham. They initially discussed trading up in the draft for him, per league sources. His development is something to watch during the NBA's dog days.
8. The backup to the backup in Indiana
The Pacers are 1-7 since Tyrese Haliburton's injury, and they've been dreadful on offense without one of the league's best point guards. But as is so often the case, the bigger problem is the backup to the backup. Indiana is minus-65 in 147 minutes with T.J. McConnell on the bench since Haliburton went down.
Their offense disintegrates; Indiana has scrounged 100 points per 100 possessions without McConnell over those eight games -- nine points below Charlotte's league-worst offense.
The Pacers without Haliburton or McConnell have no organizing purpose -- no structure, no crutch for when the shot clock winds away.
Andrew Nembhard is de facto third point guard. He's a solid two-way player with a delightful mid-range game, but he's not ready to carry bench units. This has been something of a lost season for Chris Duarte -- a good secondary ball-mover with 3-point range.
The Pacers have paired Bennedict Mathurin and Buddy Hield in some non-McConnell minutes, but they don't bring enough playmaking. Hield needs Haliburton to bend the defense first. Mathurin is a ferocious scorer, but he has rookie tunnel vision -- 71 assists to 89 turnovers.
Indiana is down to 24-26, barely in the play-in. Does this slide impact their approach at the trade deadline, or its appetite for retaining Myles Turner? I'm not sure it should -- Turner is 26, a borderline All-Star -- but it would be easy for the Pacers to pratfall into the sixth-best lottery odds. Then again, they may drop there anyway if Haliburton is out longer than expected.
9. Coby White kept fighting
The Bulls puttered to 22-60 in 2018-19 -- their second season after dealing Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves at a crossroads moment. They entered that lottery with the fourth-best odds. They fell to No. 7, and picked White. The Memphis Grizzlies leapt from No. 8 to No. 2, and selected Ja Morant. Such is the role of luck in team-building.
White shot 39% as a rookie, toggling between guard positions and looking -- as most rookies do -- out of his depth. He was better in Year 2, serving mostly as point guard and co-orchestrator alongside Zach LaVine, but White didn't profile as a lead ball handler.
The acquisitions of Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso doubled as votes of no-confidence in White. He missed most of Chicago's strong start in 2021-22 recovering from injury, and returned as a low-minutes backup. White and the team did not agree on a contract extension before this season. The Bulls had passed him by.
You wouldn't know it from the numbers, but White is a different player now -- more creative attacking the paint, stronger when challenged there:
White fools Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green by faking toward Nikola Vucevic's pick, and then zooming away from it. The Bulls have averaged 1.23 points per possession on trips featuring a White drive -- 63rd among 203 players with at least 100 drives, per Second Spectrum. White is shooting a career-best 67% at the rim.
He's been more energetic on defense, streamlining around screens:
White jumps into the fray at the basket as a help defender, and offers surprisingly bouncy rim protection.
This is not some massive breakout. White is averaging 8.4 points. His handle -- exposed in the playoffs last season -- has improved, but not enough for him to function as a heavy-minutes point guard.
But he's steadier and more reliable. The Bulls are 11-8 in their last 19 games, but blew a chance to go over .500 with back-to-back losses this week to bad teams -- the Pacers and Hornets. This is their reality. Vucevic has been outstanding over that stretch. Patrick Williams is breaking out a little, shooting 42% from deep. It just hasn't translated into enough consistency.
Every time the Bulls have a chance to silence the "blow it up" chatter, they gag games to bad teams. They are now tied with the Wizards at 22-26. Four of their next five are against losing teams, including games against Orlando, Charlotte (again), and the San Antonio Spurs. It's clear this core has no pathway to title contention. Can they at least morph into a frisky low playoff seed? The next 10 days will be telling.
10. The Pelicans need Zion back, stat
The New Orleans Pelicans are 27th in points per possession since Zion Williamson suffered a hamstring injury. They're 3-11 since Dec. 31 -- fourth in the West, but only three games up on No. 13. They are in the morass.
Brandon Ingram missed all but one of those games. Any team would struggle without its two best players, but it has been striking how the entire conceit of the Pelicans collapses without Williamson blowing open holes in defenses.
The Pelicans are a paint-pounding battering ram. They don't shoot many 3s. Defenses clog the paint against them regardless of personnel. You just don't feel it as much with Williamson. He can dart through tight creases. If that fails, he just moves people out of the way -- or watches them retreat in fear of the linebacker roaring toward them.
Without Williamson (and Ingram), every possession is a cluttered slog.
Herbert Jones Jr. is in a hellacious slump from deep. Jose Alvarado just came out of one, but he's down to 33% after a hot start. Dyson Daniels barely looks to shoot. Defenses ignore all those guys. Without Williamson, the Pelicans are playing Larry Nance Jr. and Jaxson Hayes more at power forward. That works in doses, but it's fragile. Nance is 11-of-28 from deep; teams don't pay him much mind when he's spotting up. Ditto for Hayes and Willy Hernangomez.
The main culprit in New Orleans' cratering offense is bricky jump-shooting. There is always some bad luck baked into jump-shooting troughs, but this is something more. Worse shooters are taking harder shots. (PS: Can we please get Malik Beasley to New Orleans -- or to the Memphis Grizzlies?)
At full strength, the Pelicans can compete with anyone. They are a threat to get to the conference finals or beyond. Ingram is back, and this is a major test for him. One more losing week, and New Orleans will be fighting for its life in play-in territory.