NBA All-Star ballot: Zach Lowe's 2023 picks and starter debates

With the All-Star starters announced Thursday night, it's time for the fun-slash-agonizing annual exercise of picking 12-man All-Star rosters for each conference.

The parameters:

* I am among the media who vote for starters; those votes count. My reserve choices do not.

* I follow the same positional rules as fans in voting for starters, and the coaches who select reserves. For starters, that means two guards and three amorphous frontcourt players. For reserves, the coaches pick two guards; three front-court players; and two wild cards from either positional group.

Positional designations are rigid. Players are either guards or frontcourt players, never both. That is different from All-NBA voting -- which is more consequential -- where players can be listed at multiple positions, allowing voters more flexibility in selecting who they deem the 15 most deserving players. In All-NBA, for instance, Jimmy Butler is typically eligible at both forward and guard. For All-Star, he's a frontcourt player only.

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

Starters:

G Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
FC Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
FC Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
FC LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

Reserve locks:

G Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
G Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
FC Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz

* Eight locks. From there, it gets dicey.

* Curry and Doncic are the West's top two guards. Curry has cooled after his scorching start, but he's still within spitting distance of his peak MVP numbers. His influence on offense radiates across the entire court, stretching and warping defenses beyond their breaking point. He is a revolution. He is the system -- the Warriors way. Their entire ethos and style -- the motion offense so different from the way most teams play, the selflessness underlying it -- stems from Curry. All these years later, and with all the star power orbiting him, Golden State still hasn't really figured out how to make that system hum without Curry.

If you want him starting, that's fine. He's going to start anyway. But Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.8 points on 51% shooting, and means almost as much -- at least in raw production terms, if not elemental ideological ones -- to the Thunder's offense as Curry does to Golden State's. The teams are tied in the standings. Gilgeous-Alexander has missed one game, and logged 431 more minutes than Curry.

It's hard to know when to use minutes (or any other criteria, including pedigree and star power) as a tie-breaker. Beyond some threshold of participation, it's a case-by-case thing. Sometimes, the gap in season-specific statistics -- both traditional and advanced -- and career accomplishments is so massive, you toss out the minutes differential and say: Come on, we all know this guy is better. But Gilgeous-Alexander's numbers this season are close enough to Curry's that the minutes chasm tilts this ballot for him.

* You can make a case for Markkanen to snare one frontcourt spot from Sabonis or James. He's averaging 25 points on almost 50/40/90 shooting, and his ability to score in almost every way has allowed Utah's offense to shape-shift around all sorts of player types that wouldn't appear -- on paper -- to blend into a functional team. There are many reasons the Jazz have fit together, but Markkanen's malleability might be the biggest. They are plus-5.6 per 100 possessions with Markkanen on the floor and minus-6.2 when he rests. He has defended pretty well across multiple positions.

But the rarest and most valuable skill is the ability to create efficient shots for both yourself and your teammates -- to be the chessmaster. LeBron is the greatest chessmaster ever. He's averaging 30 points and 7 assists. It's understandable a lot of LeBron discourse right now centers on big-picture history. Every game, he accomplishes something no player ever has at his age. He is about to break the sport's most hallowed individual record. His team is not very good.

What LeBron is doing right now, lifting this team, merits narrower attention. During Anthony Davis's 23-game absence, the Lakers outscored opponents by 85 points with LeBron on the floor -- about 6.3 points per 100 possessions, the scoring margin of a very good team. With LeBron on the bench, those 20 opponents outscored the Lakers by 118.

Other key Lakers -- Lonnie Walker IV and Austin Reaves -- missed portions of that stretch. You could argue LeBron started some of those games alongside four guys who should be backups.

The guy is still remarkable. Zero teams would be excited to face him in a seven-game series, or to try to outthink him -- LeBron's eyes darting in all directions, toggling between options faster than you can -- in the last 90 seconds of a close playoff game.

Sabonis has been the fulcrum of Sacramento's top-ranked offense. Were it not for whatever the hell Jokic is doing to the sport, we'd all be marveling at Sabonis averaging 7.5 dimes -- whizzing bounce passes to cutters, whipping the ball to shooters, working dribble hand-off magic with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. A center averaging 7.5 assists!?!? How? Sabonis is shooting a career-best 64% on 2s, mashing suckers on the block.

Markkanen averages 1.8 assists. That's not really his fault; Utah has playmakers all around him. But Markkanen is not an all-encompassing force the way these other guys are. That said, it would be a (basketball) crime if he didn't make it as a reserve.

* The West has four guys who would be no-brainer All-Stars had they played maybe 200 more minutes. Davis has logged 862 minutes and missed 23 of the Lakers' 49 games. The chattering class spent the first 10 games wondering -- a bit unfairly, I thought -- if we'd ever see bubble-level Davis again. Then for 15 games, he became an MVP candidate. Is 15 such games enough? Davis has star wattage, but there aren't many guys who get into the All-Star game having missed almost half the season.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has played fewer minutes than Davis despite appearing in six more games -- the result of foul trouble. (Desmond Bane has played 870 minutes in 28 games; he'd have given Memphis three strong All-Star candidates. He has been that good.)

Jackson has been the league's best per-minute defender -- a terrifying all-court menace. He has reached a new level on offense. He has been one of the league's 20 best players on a per-minute basis.

So has Zion Williamson, who has played 956 minutes in 29 games -- and missed 20. The Pelicans have mauled opponents by 8 points per 100 possessions with Williamson on the floor -- and played about even without him. A month ago, when they were 23-12, it would have felt wrong to build an All-Star team without any Pelican. (CJ McCollum has surged lately, but it's hard for him amid this star-studded field of guards; he's shooting 45.9% on 2s and turning the ball over at a career-high rate. He has faced an enormous burden without Williamson and Brandon Ingram, but the competition is fierce.)

That they are 3-11 since, clinging to No. 4 in the West, says a lot about Williamson's value -- and that of Ingram, who has appeared in just 16 games. Williamson is out at least two more weeks; by All-Star weekend, the percentage of games in which he has appeared will be even lower.

That might also end up the case for Devin Booker, checking in at 1,002 minutes. He was on my MVP and first-team All-NBA ballots last season, and was on course to appear in those discussions again until suffering a groin injury in late December. The Suns have struggled to tread water on offense without him (and a pile of other key players.)

Again, it's hard to know where the availability dividing line is. It's different for everyone; Stan Van Gundy on Twitter cut it off at appearing in at least 80% of games. That's too high for me, but it's right for him.

The bottom line here is that it's hard to make a logical argument for one of these four players without including all of them. How can you anoint Williamson, for instance, but not Davis? Williamson has played in 94 more minutes, but Davis will pass him in a week. The Pelicans have a better record than the Lakers -- and had a way better one with Williamson healthy -- but are we really blaming that on a guy (Davis) who butted his way into the MVP conversation before his injury?

There's an availability threshold somewhere. It drops every year in the era of load management. But for me, it exists somewhere around 32 games (out of about 45 for each team) and 1,000-ish minutes -- depending, again, on context and candidates in each conference.

Last four reserve spots:

FC Aaron Gordon, Denver Nuggets

FC Paul George, LA Clippers

WC De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

WC Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

* Admittedly, Gordon and George don't scream "All-Star." But if you omit Williamson, Davis, and Jackson Jr., you're pretty much out of other viable front-court options. (That's why I'd have zero objection to anyone taking the opposite approach, and putting all those guys on -- minutes be damned!) Portland's Jerami Grant probably has the best case -- and has logged 450 more minutes than George -- but George is clearly the superior player.

Clippers malaise and injury issues have overshadowed a very good George season: 23 points, 6 boards, 5 assists, efficient shooting, elite defense at multiple positions. Grant has shot well, but doesn't have the same kind of heavy creation role.

Gordon doesn't either. Grant gets open looks off of Lillard's brilliance. Gordon gets very open looks -- including copious dunks -- off of Jokic's mind-bending brilliance. Gordon has been more vicious finishing those looks: 57.4% overall, 63% on 2s. He's a better rebounder, defender, and playmaker than Grant. He's not just mooching off of Jokic on offense; the Nuggets trust Gordon to run the break, post up, and orchestrate the occasional pick-and-roll. It also feels right to reward the No. 1 team in each conference two All-Stars.

Minnesota's Anthony Edwards might be the toughest cut. He's eligible only at guard; if he qualified as a frontcourt player, he might have bumped George or Gordon.

Edwards has ratcheted up a level on both ends over the past six weeks carrying the injury-riddled Timberwolves. He has played every game and leads the league in minutes. I really wanted to reward his durability. Alas. He arrived at camp in something less than peak shape, and advanced metrics are unkind to him relative to his peers here -- due in part to his sometimes shaky shot selection and a blah 1.35-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

After a 60-point eruption Wednesday in an important win over Utah, Lillard is averaging 30 points and 7.5 dimes. He remains an offense unto himself; the Blazers are plus-4.8 per 100 possessions with Lillard on the floor, and a hideous minus-5 without him. He has hit 37.3% from deep -- average for him, but fine considering the enormous volume and how the mere threat of his pull-up 3 unlocks looks for everyone else. Lillard has drained a career-best (by a mile) 56% on 2s.

Fox's season has been perhaps a tick overhyped -- he's at 33% from deep on middling volume, with underwhelming advanced stats neck-and-neck with Edwards's -- but Fox has been really good on the clear-cut No. 3 team in the West. He has hit 57% on 2s. Fox keeping his assists up -- almost seven per 36 minutes -- is impressive considering how much of the offense he ceded to Sabonis. (He deserves credit for that, too.)

He has also been the league's best crunch-time scorer; Fox is a bonkers 44-of-73 (60%) in the last five minutes of games when the scoring margin is within five points, per NBA.com. We may look back on that as small-sample randomness, but for now it should boost Fox's All-Star chances. (Gilgeous-Alexander canning several high-leverage, last-second shots also helps him beat out Curry here for the last starting spot. We're mostly evaluating a small sample of 40-ish games; let's have some fun with it!)

That clutch shooting has had a material effect on Sacramento's win total. The Kings' best player is a center, and centers have a harder time creating offense off dead balls against set defenses in crunch-time; Sabonis has attempted only 16 shots in the final five minutes of close games. None of the Kings' other starters is adept at generating good shots from scratch off the dribble. Fox is in.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Starters

G Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
G Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
FC Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
FC Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
FC Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets

Reserve locks

G Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers FC Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
FC Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors
FC Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

* Tatum, Antetokounmpo, Durant, and Embiid have been the four best players in the conference. We all know this. We all want them starting together. The NBA has designated all four as frontcourt players only, so one has to hit the bench.

Yes, it feels ridiculous to shove Antetokounmpo to the pine. He might be the best player in the world! He's probably the best defender among this quartet, though Embiid at the height of his powers and effort has something to say. He's averaging 31 points -- tied with Tatum for third overall!

But Embiid is No.2 in the scoring race, and advanced stats are pretty unanimous that Antetokounmpo should be the odd man out. Blame his decreased shooting accuracy from almost every spot on the floor; too many wayward jumpers; a drop-off in free throw shooting; and an uptick in turnovers.

Yes, Durant may be out until the All-Star game. I don't really care. He has missed eight of Brooklyn's 47 games. He has piled up 39 games played and 1,403 minutes -- 165 more than Antetokounmpo. He led the league in minutes per game at points, and had a legitimate MVP case.

All four are going anyway.

* The only dilemma among the starters was the last guard spot between Haliburton and Brown -- with at least a half-dozen guards slotting in just below them. For most of the season, I leaned Haliburton. Almost every metric beyond points and rebounds says it should be him.

The argument for Haliburton is the same one as for James and Sabonis above Markkanen: He is the main engine of an entire ecosystem, creating great shots for himself and his teammates. Brown is still more finisher than initiator. He has improved his playmaking in fits and starts, but his overall development in that area has to be slightly disappointing to Boston. Brown can still be a mechanical passer, sometimes a beat slow to spot the right play. His assist numbers have plateaued. He's averaging 3.3 assists and 3.1 turnovers.

But man is this dude a finisher -- the undisputed No. 2 option on the conference's best team. He's averaging 27 points per game on 49% shooting, including a career-best 58% on 2s. He's a destroyer in the open floor. Brown might not be a reliable orchestrator, but he can get a good look for himself at will; he's shooting a Nowitzkian 52% on long 2s, most of which are self-created. He is a much better and more versatile defender than Haliburton.

In the end, I deferred to winning and pedigree as the tie-breaker. Both Brown and Haliburton are heading to Salt Lake City regardless.

* The last three spots -- one guard, two wild-cards -- came down to (deep breaths): James Harden, DeMar DeRozan, Jimmy Butler, Jrue Holiday, Jalen Brunson, and Julius Randle. All of them are deserving. Darius Garland -- a deserving All-Star last season -- heads up the next group above (among others) Trae Young, Kyrie Irving Myles Turner, Dejounte Murray, Brook Lopez, Nicolas Claxton, Kyle Kuzma, Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Bojan Bogdanovic, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic.

Young has made a lot of ballots. That's fine! He's averaging 27 points and 10 assists. He's one of the best passers alive. In most seasons, he almost guarantees his team an elite offense. Just not in this one. Atlanta ranks 17th in points per possession, and they're only slightly above league average with Young on the floor. Young is shooting 42.6% overall and 31.8% on 3s -- not good enough in this stacked field given his defense (though he has perked up lately as the Hawks have righted their wobbly season) and the on-again, off-again drama surrounding his relationship with coaches and teammates.

* Kyrie Irving has exceptional (offensive) numbers, and poured in 86 points in back-to-back wins without Durant last week. He leads the league in fourth-quarter scoring. But he has caused way too much instability to make this ballot. If your own team asks you to go away for a while, you sit out the All-Star Game -- at least here. (Claxton deserves special honorable mention. What a season -- on both ends. He was probably the best player on the floor in Wednesday night's Brooklyn-Philly showdown -- a Sixers win that dropped Brooklyn to 2-6 without Durant. I'd have no problem with Claxton sneaking into one of these last spots.)

* Siakam and Adebayo have to be All-Stars. I've been stunned by some ballots leaving Adebayo out. He has been a rock for the Heat, with pretty much every teammate missing significant time. Kyle Lowry has receded to the fringes on offense. Adebayo is doing everything on both ends.

That led me here, and only because life has deadlines:

The last three reserve spots

G James Harden, Philadelphia 76ers

WC: DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls

WC: Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

New York and Milwaukee fans have real gripes.

I'd have zero issue with both Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson getting in. For most of the season, I leaned toward Brunson as the "you need to choose one and only one Knick" All-Star. He's steadier, more reliable, always making the right play and shooting well when he calls his own number.

But in the past two weeks, Randle has edged past him. He is playing with such jarring force -- flying up the floor, dislodging defenders under the rim, powering through people. That simple, north-south brutality defines the Knicks; they want to beat you up, own the basket, and limit turnovers by not being too cute with the ball. Brunson has some of that oomph in him too, but only so much at his height.

Randle is averaging 25 points and 11 rebounds. He's third in minutes -- with about 600 (!) more than Harden or Butler.

Minutes hurt Williamson, Jackson Jr., Booker, and Davis in the West, so why doesn't the availability factor give the edge to Randle in the East? All fair. We're splitting hairs by definition, and sometimes splitting hairs strains logic.

But Harden and Butler have both logged 1,150-ish minutes -- more than all four of those guys in the West, and significantly more than three of them. They should continue playing most games through All-Star. Davis just returned and is almost 300 minutes behind Butler and Harden. Jackson is behind Davis. Booker and Williamson are still out.

Harden and Butler have and still do reside in a different plane of basketball existence than the New York candidates. They are likely and probably (at least in Harden's case) certain Hall of Famers. Even now, advanced metrics scream they are on a different level than Randle and Brunson.

Those numbers shout for Holiday too, and he's doing his usual thing: 19 points, 7.5 assists, 5 rebounds, very unpleasant chest-to-chest defense. It seems like he's been out a bunch, but Holiday has logged 1,210 minutes -- about the same as Butler and Harden -- in 37 games. The Bucks are plus-7 per 100 possessions with Holiday on the floor and minus-5 when he sits. Lineups featuring Holiday but not Antetokounmpo have blitzed opponents, per Cleaning The Glass. He has helped Milwaukee navigate instability.