We're only one month into the season, but the Cleveland Cavaliers have been on quite the roller-coaster ride.
Nine days ago, the Cavaliers looked like one of the best teams in the NBA. They had won eight straight games, including two statement wins against the Boston Celtics, the defending Eastern Conference champions. Cleveland's big offseason acquisition, Donovan Mitchell, had instant chemistry not only with fellow All-Star guard Darius Garland but with the entire team, turning the Cavs into a scoring machine. They were arguably the NBA's most balanced team early, posting the best net rating in the league thanks to elite statistical markers on both ends of the court.
But then they took their feel-good vibes out to California, and got a huge dose of humility.
The early-November trip started well enough, with a win against old friend LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, but the next night saw the Cavs blow a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter against the LA Clippers. That was followed by a troubling defeat against the Sacramento Kings, another fourth-quarter meltdown against Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors and a first-half no-show back at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Now the Cavaliers (8-5) have lost four in a row heading into Wednesday's high-profile test against the first-place Milwaukee Bucks. Cleveland's season has been a whirlwind, and there is no shortage of hot takes by the lake, but the key question looms: Is this team a contender or a pretender?
There are four big reasons for Cavaliers fans to remain optimistic about their team's chances to return to the playoffs for the first time without LeBron James on the roster since 1998 and make some noise once they're there.
Despite the four-game skid, no team in the Eastern Conference is outscoring its opponents as well as the Cavs, whose net rating of plus-6.8 is the second-best mark in the league behind only the Phoenix Suns. That's good company for Cleveland; the Suns had the NBA's best record last season (64-18) and were arguably the most balanced overall team too. So far this season, only two squads can boast a top-five offense and a top-five defense: the Suns and the Cavs.
Basketball isn't rocket science, and any team that is playing elite basketball on both ends is bound to win a lot more than it loses. While Boston's offense has been brilliant early, its defense has looked mediocre without Robert Williams III. Similarly, while Milwaukee's defense has been the class of the league, its offense has yet to impress without Khris Middleton. Among these three teams near the top of the East, Cleveland can claim to be the most balanced, for multiple reasons.
Elite offense, thanks to Mitchell
Last season, the Cavs owned the NBA's 20th-ranked offense. This year's unit ranks third, and while many of us expected its defense to be elite, the emergence of this offense has elevated the ceiling for Cleveland. The Cavs might not end up in the top five, but if they stay healthy, it's clear they will be a strong offense, and there's one huge reason for that.
Mitchell is on pace to log career highs in almost every individual scoring statistic. He's averaging 31.6 points per game, while also logging the best efficiency numbers of his career both inside and outside of the 3-point arc.
In his sixth season, Mitchell has become one of the NBA's best attacking guards. Among the 56 players who have logged at least 100 drives this season, nobody has been a more effective scorer on them than Mitchell, who is yielding a ridiculous 1.34 points per drive when he finishes the play, per Second Spectrum tracking.
It hasn't taken long for the former Utah Jazz star to jell with his new teammates in Cleveland, and the best evidence of that is in the pick-and-roll numbers. In a league obsessed with pick actions, the Mitchell acquisition has helped transform a mediocre pick-and-roll team into a very good one.
Last season, the Cavs ranked 22nd in the league in points per chance on pick actions -- this season they rank fifth, per Second Spectrum.
Mitchell has a solid claim to being the Eastern Conference's best pick-and-roll ball handler through the first month of the season. Among the 25 most prolific pick-and-roll ball handlers this season, Mitchell trails only Stephen Curry in efficiency, according to Second Spectrum.
That's good company, but it takes two to tango, and in Cleveland, Mitchell finds himself alongside two of the league's best dance partners. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are both prototypical young bigs, perfectly suited for modern hoops. They're not only the sturdy foundation of the team's great defense, but both are also among the longest and quickest screeners in the league.
The Cavs are the only NBA team with two players who both rank in the top 10 in dunks this season; Allen ranks fourth and Mobley seventh.
It's like a quarterback having both the Minnesota Vikings' Justin Jefferson and Los Angeles Rams' Cooper Kupp to throw to, but the Cavs also have two great quarterbacks. With Mitchell out with a strained right ankle Sunday, Garland reminded the NBA that he's a pretty good offensive player, too, scoring 51 points in the loss to Minnesota.
Cleveland's new and improved backcourt is arguably the best in the league, and if it stays healthy, this offense will hum all season.
Elite defense, thanks to Allen
Cleveland emerged as one of the league's best defenses last season. Before the All-Star break, the Cavs had the league's fourth-best defensive efficiency. Then Allen, an All-Star and one of the league's top defensive centers, fractured his left middle finger and missed almost all of March and April, during which time the Cavs' defense plummeted to near the bottom of the league.
With Allen back in the fold, the Cavs' defense has snapped back into elite status.
Cleveland ranks fourth in the NBA, but Allen is the key. In his 390 minutes of action this season, the Cavs have logged a defensive rating of 104.9, which would rank second in the league overall. In the 249 minutes they've played without him, that number is 111.0, which would rank 16th overall.
If Cavs fans needed proof of Allen's importance, they got it Sunday when Minnesota, loser of five of its previous six games, poured in 129 points in Cleveland as Allen missed the game with a sore left ankle.
Elite rebounding, thanks to Love & Co.
The Cavs' calling card early has been on the glass. No team in the league hogs boards as well as Cleveland. The trio of Allen, Mobley and Kevin Love is arguably the best in the NBA. They combine to grab over 26 rebounds per game, and coach J.B. Bickerstaff is almost always able to have an elite rebounder or two on the floor. The Cavaliers have played just 34 possessions this season with none of those players on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass data.
Cleveland leads the league in both defensive rebounding percentage and total rebounding percentage, and one reason its defense is so effective is that its opponents just aren't getting second bites of the apple -- the Cavs are the only team in the league holding opponents to fewer than 10 second-chance points per game.
Love has been particularly good on this front. One of the reasons the Cavs have a ridiculous net rating of plus-15 in Love's 276 minutes of action this season is that the 34-year-old is still a force on the glass, leading all bench players in total rebounds this season, per NBA Advanced Stats.
In an era defined by outlandish 3-point scoring and offensive skill, the blue-collar task of rebounding contributes to basketball success, and through the first month of the season, Cleveland is the best rebounding team in the league.
Elite talent
Talent does not grow on trees, but the front office in Cleveland has gone out and found it over the past few seasons. Not many teams in the NBA can claim to have four potential All-Stars in their starting five, but the Cavs can do just that -- Mitchell, Garland and Allen have already been All-Stars before their primes even started, and Mobley, who is still only 21, has the highest ceiling in the group.
The combination of these factors makes it easy to be optimistic, but the losing streak provides ample fodder for the pessimists, and injuries could derail everything.
Cleveland's eight-game win streak came to a screeching halt when the Cavs blew a 13-point lead against the Clippers in the game's final five minutes. Norman Powell single-handedly outscored the Cavs down the stretch. The Cavs are the league's second-best 3-point shooting team so far this season, but they went ice cold, missing all five of their attempts in the final five minutes of the loss -- perhaps reflecting some fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back.
Two nights later, Cleveland's defense allowed a season-high 127 points against the Kings in Sacramento in large part because the Cavs couldn't stop fouling. Sacramento logged 30 points at the free throw line alone, and if there's a concern with Cleveland's elite defense early, it might be that they are too physical. Cavs' opponents average 24.2 free throws per game, the ninth most in the league.
In their next game, it was the offense that sputtered, putting up a season-low 101 points in a loss against Golden State and its bottom-five defense. Then back at home against the Timberwolves, it was the defense's turn to struggle again, giving up 67 points in the first half and digging a hole so deep that even Garland's 50-point masterpiece wasn't enough to mount a comeback.
Both Mitchell and Allen have already missed time with ankle issues, and if either or both miss extended time, this team's impressive numbers in the pick-and-roll and on the glass could easily slip, just as they did last season following Allen's finger injury.
As always in the NBA, the best ability is availability, and if this roster can stay healthy, the Cavaliers have a chance to sustain those incredible statistical markers. If that happens, there will be another top contender in the Eastern Conference.