How have the NBA's newly formed All-Star duos performed together -- and apart -- this season?
Three players selected to the 2022 All-Star Game (Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and Dejounte Murray) changed teams via trade this past summer. In an atypical coincidence, all three landed with teams that already had an All-Star at their position: center Karl-Anthony Towns for the Minnesota Timberwolves, guard Darius Garland for the Cleveland Cavaliers and guard Trae Young for the Atlanta Hawks.
That created an interesting set of experiments as teams sought to pair the two stars, meaning less time with the ball in their hands for Mitchell and Murray and a move to power forward for Towns. It also created the opportunity for coaches to stagger their stars, keeping one on the court at all times to anchor second units.
Three weeks into the 2022-23 campaign, the three teams are in various stages of integrating their new stars, with injury and illness affecting those processes. With the help of data provided by NBA Advanced Stats, let's check in on all three All-Star pairings and what could be next for each.
Murray thriving, Young slumping in Atlanta
The Hawks have gotten the most complete look at their stars together. With Murray playing every game so far and Young the first nine before sitting out Monday, Atlanta had played just 33 minutes all season with neither guard on the court entering Wednesday.
As the Hawks had hoped, lineups with Murray and Young have thrived. Their net rating with both players on the court ranks in the 95th percentile of all qualified lineups leaguewide, per Cleaning the Glass.
Yet Atlanta hasn't exactly gotten there the way it had anticipated.
Although Young's box-score stats are similar to last season's All-Star marks (27.6 PPG and 9.4 APG, down only slightly from 28.4 and 9.7, respectively), he's begun the campaign in a deep shooting slump. After making 51% of his 2-point attempts and 38% of his 3s in 2021-22, Young is at 42% and 31% so far this season.
But it's hard to attribute Young's poor shooting to Murray. Per Second Spectrum tracking data, he's getting better shots when playing with Murray than he did last season. And Young has struggled even more with Murray on the bench, shooting just 33% from the field, according to NBA Advanced Stats. This is likely just an outlier -- one that Murray's presence has helped the Hawks not only survive but overcome during a 7-4 start.
It's been Murray who has been forced to alter his game. His time of possession, which ranked eighth in the league last season at 7.4 MPG, has dropped to 5.8 so far this season, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats. Young has seen his decline more modestly from 8.7 MPG to 7.7. Yet Murray is excelling, ranking in the top 10 in my wins above replacement player metric entering Wednesday, thanks in large part to 39% 3-point shooting when he plays with Young.
Leaders in my wins above replacement metric entering Wednesday's games. pic.twitter.com/YT0al6Q3Bp
— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) November 10, 2022
As ESPN's Andrew Lopez noted last week, Murray and Young are both in the NBA's top 10 in assists, which would be just the fourth time for teammates since 1999-2000, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
Adding Murray has also helped Atlanta overcome past difficulties when Young sits. On Monday, with Young unavailable, the Hawks recorded their most impressive win of the season against the previously undefeated Milwaukee Bucks.
Entering Wednesday, Atlanta had outscored opponents by 5.6 points per 100 possessions in 137 minutes when Murray plays and Young is on the bench, compared to a minus-0.6 net rating with Young resting last season.
Mitchell carried Cavs in Garland's absence
The debut of the Garland-Mitchell backcourt lasted less than one half before Garland was poked in the eye during Cleveland's season-opening loss to the Toronto Raptors, causing an eyelid laceration that sidelined him the next five games. With Mitchell sliding over to point guard, the Cavaliers went 5-0 as part of a strong start that has them second in the East standings.
Last season, Cleveland was even more dependent on Garland for offense than Atlanta was on Young. The Cavaliers' net rating went from plus-6.6 points per 100 possessions with Garland to minus-5.8 without him. Naturally, that changed in a big way with the addition of Mitchell as an offensive force.
With Garland off the court, Mitchell has hiked his usage rate to 34% of Cleveland's plays, according to NBA Advanced Stats data, which would top his highest mark with the Utah Jazz (33.5%). Yet Mitchell still scored more efficiently (.648 true shooting percentage) than at any point during his Utah career (his top mark was .572 last season).
Thanks to that performance, Cleveland's net rating with Mitchell playing and Garland on the bench has ranked in the 97th percentile league-wide, per Cleaning the Glass.
Garland returned from his injury on Nov. 2, subsequently sitting out one more Cavaliers blowout win over the lowly Detroit Pistons due to a minor knee sprain. And while Cleveland's eight-game winning streak ended with a 119-117 loss at the LA Clippers on Monday, Mitchell has scored just as efficiently (.639 TS%) in a much-lower-usage role alongside Garland.
The way the Cavaliers relied on Mitchell in Garland's absence surely wasn't sustainable. He's already logged at least 43:55 on the court three times this season, all in overtime wins Garland missed, something no other player in the league has done more than once. But it helped Cleveland survive a stretch that could have otherwise sunk the team's start.
Gobert, Towns struggling to click
While the Hawks and Cavaliers pairing two strong ball handlers fit with the direction the NBA has been trending, Minnesota adding a center and moving Towns to power forward was a far bolder move.
The early results have shown growing pains.
As ESPN's Zach Lowe explored in last week's 10 Things, Gobert's presence has altered Towns' role on offense more than the Timberwolves hoped given Towns was paired with non-shooter Jarred Vanderbilt in the starting five last season.
In fact, Towns' splits with and without Gobert are almost unbelievable. Entering Wednesday, in 206 minutes together, Towns had attempted just seven free throws while posting a .488 true shooting percentage. In 184 minutes with Gobert on the bench, those jumped to 43 free throw attempts and a sizzling .730 true shooting percentage.
There's no way Towns' splits will remain so extreme as the season continues. About half the difference in true shooting is driven by 3-pointers. Towns is hitting 50% of his 3s with Gobert on the bench and just 20% when playing with him.
Still, Towns isn't getting the kind of good looks when he plays with Gobert, according to Second Spectrum's quantified shot quality measure, which factors in the location and type of shot as well as the distance to nearby defenders. (This is true whether we account for Towns' shooting ability or not.) And somehow, even his shots with Gobert on the bench haven't been as good as last season.
That might reflect Minnesota missing the players sent to the Jazz in exchange for Gobert. In particular, Malik Beasley's team-high 240 3-pointers haven't been replaced. The Timberwolves quietly led the NBA in 3-pointers made and attempted last season, ranking 12th in 3-point percentage. With Beasley gone and D'Angelo Russell mired at 31.5% beyond the arc, they've dropped to 16th in 3-pointers made per game and 27th in percentage.
That's been exacerbated by 3-point shooting against Minnesota. Entering Wednesday, opponents had hit 40% of their 3s with Towns on the court, compared to 30% with him on the bench. Though it's tempting to attribute that to Towns chasing smaller opponents on the perimeter with Gobert, it's worth remembering that opponent 3-point shooting is extremely volatile over small samples.
As a result, the Timberwolves have been outscored with Towns on the court, whether he's paired with Gobert or not. The Timberwolves have a small positive net rating when Gobert plays without Towns (plus-3.0), benefiting from the flip side of opponent 3-point shooting luck (they're hitting 27% of their 3s against these lineups). The team's most successful lineups have featured neither All-Star big, largely in garbage time.
Better 3-point shooting from the Timberwolves and worse shooting from their opponents should be enough to get Minnesota back on the right side of .500. But to make the Timberwolves the kind of contenders they'd hoped to be, coach Chris Finch and his staff will have to find ways to make Gobert and Towns more complementary on offense.