Just how expensive will the Golden State Warriors' roster be after extensions reached Saturday with guard Jordan Poole and forward Andrew Wiggins?
And what does that mean for the chances of keeping Draymond Green alongside Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, the core of the team that has brought four championships to the Bay?
Days before beginning their title defense on Tuesday, the Warriors were busy Saturday, striking deals with two players who would have otherwise become free agents next summer.
Golden State faced a Monday deadline to reach an extension with Poole, who is entering the final season of his rookie contract and would have become a restricted free agent. Wiggins, who would have been unrestricted, could have extended at any point through next June 30. Completing a deal now removes any uncertainty about his future.
That leaves one huge question for the Warriors: Green, who can become an unrestricted free agent next summer if he declines a $27.6 million player option. Green's situation is complicated both by Golden State's massive luxury tax bill and the practice altercation earlier this month, during which he punched Poole.
Let's take a look at how the Warriors' payroll projects and where Green might fit in.
Why the Wiggins extension looks like a bargain
While Golden State undoubtedly paid full freight for the Poole extension, which I analyzed here, it certainly looks like Wiggins took a discount to stay in the Bay.
Like Steven Adams and CJ McCollum, Wiggins signed an extension that pays him less in the first season than he'll make during 2022-23, the final year of his current max contract. That was unsurprising for Adams and McCollum, players who will be in their 30s during those extensions and aren't likely to provide as much value on the court.
Wiggins, who turns 28 in February, is in a different situation. Granted, the Minnesota portion of Wiggins' extension was a disappointment, as he failed to develop into the star the Timberwolves projected for the former No. 1 pick. Since being dealt to the Warriors, however, Wiggins has evolved into a coveted 3-and-D wing with more shot creation than the typical player of that ilk.
To some extent, Golden State may have been aided by the fact that most teams with cap space next summer will be rebuilding rather than contenders in desperate need of Wiggins' skill set. (One possible exception: the Los Angeles Lakers, who would have been able to offer Wiggins far more than his $24 million starting salary in this extension if they didn't add long-term salary.)
Had Wiggins signed a shorter-term extension, he might have benefited from a rising salary cap. By 2025-26, the third season of Wiggins' new deal, his $28 million salary (per ESPN's Bobby Marks) might look typical for an average starter on the wing. Given Wiggins will be just 32 by the end of the extension, he should hold his value and have a chance at another big payday in 2027.
I suspect Wiggins valued the opportunity the Warriors have offered him to rehabilitate his reputation while winning a championship. Wiggins has seen the other side as a go-to scorer on lottery-bound Minnesota teams -- it doesn't appear he was interested in a return to that role.
Projecting Golden State's payroll ... and Draymond's future
The extensions for Poole and Wiggins give the Warriors $182 million in committed salary to 10 players for 2023-24, counting team options for Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and James Wiseman (Golden State has until Oct. 31 to exercise those) but not player options for Green and newcomer Donte DiVincenzo.
Already, that's enough to put the Warriors $20 million above the projected luxury tax line before dealing with Green, a first-round pick or filling out the roster.
If Green exercises his player option, Golden State would almost certainly surpass this year's LA Clippers, who are $41 million into the tax, with the largest payment in NBA history. (The Warriors are currently just behind the Clippers at more than $39 million in the tax, with the ability to add to that total by filling their 15th roster spot.)
How Golden State's tax bill projects could be affected by ongoing negotiations between the league and its players association on a new collective bargaining agreement. The two sides have until Dec. 15 to decide whether they want to opt out of the CBA after this season and would surely prefer to have a new deal in place before then.
There have been two contrasting schools of thought on the Warriors' tax bill. Critics have pointed to Golden State -- along with the Clippers -- defying the goal of the tax to create salary parity. In practice, the tax often serves as a hard cap for small-market teams but not high-revenue ones.
Alternatively, the Warriors have lamented that they're dealing with massive tax payments for retaining stars they've drafted or, in Wiggins' case, acquired via trade rather than signed in free agency. I don't buy that argument given lower-revenue teams (most notably the Oklahoma City Thunder) often have to choose among players they've drafted and developed.
Additionally, Wiggins' addition can be traced back to two players (Kevin Durant, later signed-and-traded for D'Angelo Russell) added as free agents.
Based on that debate, I don't expect substantial changes to the tax system, which would put Golden State in the position of deciding how much to pay to keep this team together. That decision will be affected by how well Green rebuilds trust with his teammates after "the punch," how well he plays this season and the development of Kuminga and Wiseman.
Though Green pushed for an extension, there's no rush for the Warriors to take action. The same factors that depressed Wiggins' market next summer will affect Green, making it likely he picks up his option and the two sides consider a new long-term deal next year.