Monday represents more than the deadline for all 30 NBA teams to reduce their rosters to no more than 17 players -- 15 full-time players plus two players on two-way contracts.
The day before the regular season starts is also the last day a team can sign a 2019 first-round pick to a contract extension. If no deal is reached by then, those players will likely become restricted free agents next summer.
This means that by 6 p.m. ET on Monday we will know if, for instance, Cameron Johnson and De'Andre Hunter will be under long-term contracts with Phoenix and Atlanta, respectively.
To date, seven players from the 2019 draft have signed rookie extensions: Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, RJ Barrett, Darius Garland, Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson and Jordan Poole, who joined the group two days before the deadline. An additional 17 players are still eligible to extend.
For comparison's sake, a league-record 11 players signed rookie extensions last offseason, with five of those deals coming on deadline day.
Here are the key players on rookie deals -- along with a handful of veterans also facing a Monday extension deadline -- and why their deals will or will not get done, keeping in mind that a player cannot sign a five-year extension unless it is for the maximum salary allowed -- similar to the extensions that Williamson, Morant and Garland all signed.
Breaking down the major rookie extension candidates
Cameron Johnson
With Jae Crowder requesting a trade, Johnson is in line to start along with Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges and Deandre Ayton. Last season, those five played 42 minutes together, and the Suns recorded a plus-29.5 net efficiency in those limited minutes.
In 16 starts last season, Johnson averaged 16.3 points on 49% from 3 compared to 11.2 points in his 50 games off the bench. According to Cleaning the Glass, Johnson played 68% of his minutes at power forward last season. Johnson shot 43.3% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season, third best among 73 players with 250 attempts per Second Spectrum tracking, trailing only Luke Kennard and Desmond Bane.
Why a deal might get done: Let's start with leverage. The Suns all but handed the starting power forward job to Johnson with the news that Crowder would sit out training camp while awaiting a trade. Johnson's stats -- and thus his future salary -- will likely only increase with a full-time role this season. The Ayton saga aside, the Suns' front office has also been aggressive in the past in signing their own players to extensions, reaching deals with both Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet last year.
Why there might be no extension: Does the Suns front office have the authority to spend into the future? That question will get answered by Monday. Owner Robert Sarver is not only suspended for the season, but the Suns are now for sale. There is also the thought that Johnson could bet on himself if he is not willing to compromise on a new contract. Johnson projects to be one of the top forwards in next year's free agent class.
The new contract: Do not expect a new Johnson contract to surpass the four-year, $90 million extension that Bridges agreed to last October, even with the cap increasing. Bridges had 160 career starts at the time of the extension, compared to 36 for Johnson. However, do not be surprised if the Johnson contract is in the four-year, $85 million range with a starting salary of $19 million. Based on a $134 million salary cap, the salary in the first year is comparable to Davis Bertans, Duncan Robinson and Marcus Morris Sr.
Washington is expected to go from spot starter in 2021-22 to the full-time starter in the absence of Miles Bridges.
"I've been really happy with P.J.," Hornets coach Steve Clifford said on media day. "He's going to be a big part of this team. If we're going to take a step and become a legitimate playoff team, he's going to be on the floor. He can play well on both ends of the floor. He gives you roster versatility because he can play the 4 or the 5. He can defend different perimeter players. He's a talented player, finished last season on a good note and had a good summer."
Why a deal might get done: Clifford's return to the Hornets' bench will only increase Washington's value. In Clifford's first stint in Charlotte, the Hornets ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency in three of five seasons and never ranked in the bottom 10. From Feb. 15 to April 1 last season, the Hornets ranked 11th in defensive efficiency after ranking in the bottom 10 prior to this span. One reason for the improvement? Washington's defense. Per Second Spectrum tracking, Washington held opponents to 42% shooting as the closest defender during that six-week span, which ranked in the top five among players who defended at least 200 shots. Last season, Washington was one of two players to record 900 half-court defensive matchups vs guards, forwards and centers, along with Robert Williams III per Second Spectrum tracking.
Offensively, Washington took a step in the right direction when finishing at the rim, shooting 67% in the restricted area last season, up from 54% in 2020-21.
Why there might be no extension: There are four reasons why a new contract might have to wait until next offseason for Washington. The first is the reluctance to pay starter-type money to a player who played 25-plus minutes in only 40 games last season. The second is the conservative track record of GM Mitch Kupchak. Since he was named GM of the Los Angeles Lakers in 2000, Kupchak has signed only two players to a rookie extension: Andrew Bynum and Brian Cook. Third, the uncertain future of Bridges lingers over any negotiations with Washington. And finally, how does the front office view the current roster? Without Bridges, this team is likely headed toward the lottery, and Washington might have more value to Charlotte in a trade than on a long-term contract.
The new contract: Four years, $80 million (including $10 million in unlikely bonuses). That is slightly lower than the four-year, $86.6 million extension the Denver Nuggets gave Aaron Gordon in 2021. Washington should wait until restricted free agency if Charlotte offers anything less than a total guaranteed amount of $65 million over four seasons.
Hunter's strong play in the Hawks' first-round playoff series against the Heat should be enough to warrant consideration for a new contract.
In the five-game loss, Hunter averaged 21.2 points, 56% shooting and 46% on 3-pointers. In Game 5, he scored a career-high 35 points and became the third Hawks player with 35 points and 10 rebounds in a playoff game over the past 50 years.
The forward also became the first Hawks player to average 20 points and a 60% effective field goal percentage in a playoff series since Steve Smith in 1998, per ESPN Stats & Information research.
Why a deal might get done: Wings who can score and defend are a premium in the NBA. Per ESPN Stats & Information, Hunter matched up on defense 761 times against 2022 All-Stars, which ranked in the top 15 among all players. Those All-Stars recorded a 45.7% effective field goal percentage when matched up vs. Hunter, which put Hunter in the top 10 among the 57 players to record at least 500 such matchups. Despite not signing John Collins to a rookie extension in 2020, the Hawks' front office has been aggressive in locking up its own first-round picks before they entered free agency. Last year, All-Star Trae Young agreed to a max extension in the early part of free agency, and guard Kevin Huerter signed a four-year, $64 million contract on the day prior to the start of the regular season.
Why there might be no extension: One word: durability. Hunter missed 91 games in his first three seasons, 61 of which were a result of undergoing two separate surgeries to address his right knee.
The new contract: The Hawks will certainly have an eye on the luxury-tax threshold for 2023-24. Including Bogdan Bogdanovic's $18 million player option, Atlanta is projected to be $22 million below the tax. A good comparison in salary structure is the four-year, $72 million extension that the Raptors OG Anunoby signed in 2020. With the salary cap increasing to $134 million next year, that same type of extension has a value of four years, $80 million with a starting salary of $20 million.
Like Johnson's situation in Phoenix, expect Williams to have an expanded role in Boston this season -- which could factor into negotiations on a contract extension.
The Celtics will be out forward Danilo Gallinari for most of the season and center Robert Williams III for a minimum of eight to 12 weeks.
That leaves Boston with a frontcourt of Grant Williams, Al Horford, Blake Griffin and Luke Kornet. Boston could also move Jayson Tatum to power forward, a position he played 32% of possessions last season, per Basketball Reference.
In 21 starts last season, Williams averaged 10.6 points and 40% shooting on 3-pointers. In all minutes, Williams shot 47% on corner 3-pointers, fourth best among players with at least 100 attempts. In the Game 7 win against the Milwaukee Bucks, Williams started, scored a career-high 27 points and tied the mark for most 3-pointers made (seven) in a Game 7 in NBA history.
Why a deal might get done: Last season, Williams scored in double figures in 27 games, 23 of which came when he played at least 25 minutes. He shot 46.4% on 3-pointers in those 23 games. With Al Horford set to enter free agency next offseason and the durability concerns for Robert Williams, a new contract for Grant Williams should be a priority, especially given his track record of durability (he's the only player from the 2019 draft class to play at least 200 games in his career).
Why there might be no extension: How do the Celtics view Williams? And how does Williams view his role? As the future starter at power forward or in the sixth man role? Also keep an eye on the Celtics' finances. Boston already has $134 million committed to Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Robert Williams III in 2023-24. A new contract for Grant Williams will push them into the luxury tax for a second consecutive season. However, Celtics ownership proved this offseason that they are willing to spend if the result is a championship roster.
The new contract: Three years, $45 million. The $15 million per year salary represents 11.2% of the 2023-24 salary cap. It is slightly less in that regard than the three-year, $39 million extension Kyle Kuzma signed in 2020 (11.56% of the 2021-22 cap) and equal to the four-year, $44.8 million deal Larry Nance Jr. signed in 2018. Kuzma had started 105 games in his first two seasons but came off the bench in Year 3 after the Los Angeles Lakers added Anthony Davis.
UPDATE: Clarke agreed to a four-year, $52 million extension with the Grizzlies on Sunday.
Clarke is aiming to become the sixth player on the current Memphis Grizzlies roster to sign an extension since joining the team.
The forward averaged 3.1 offensive rebounds in the playoffs, the most of any player to play at least 10 games. His 18 offensive rebounds in the fourth quarter were also a league high.
In the first-round series against Minnesota, the forward averaged 16.5 points and 9 rebounds and shot 68% from the field. While those numbers are impressive, Clarke was a non-factor in the second-round loss to Golden State, averaging 8.2 points and 4.8 rebounds.
Why a deal might get done: The Grizzlies have prioritized retaining their own players instead of generating cap space. During the tenure of GM Zach Kleiman, five players -- Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks, John Konchar and most recently Steven Adams -- have signed extensions. Morant and Jackson were rookie extensions last offseason. The Grizzlies are well below the $161 million tax threshold for next season. They are not projected to have room because of the free-agent holds for Clarke and Dillon Brooks.
Why there might be no extension: Clarke is a priority. However, with starting power forward Jackson earning 20.2% of the salary cap in 2023-24, are the Grizzlies willing to pay Clarke starter money? Out of the 12 players on the roster next season, only four -- Morant, Jackson, Adams and Tyus Jones -- are earning more than 9% of the cap. Clarke could bet on himself and bypass taking the guaranteed money at a discount now. The injury to Jackson should see Clarke's minutes and production increase at least in the early part of the season. Clarke played 20-plus minutes in only 31 games last season, averaging 12.7 points, 6.9 rebounds and 65% shooting.
The new contract: Three years, $55.4 million. We are going to turn back the clock 10 years (yes, that is correct) and use the four-year, $33 million extension that Taj Gibson signed with the Bulls as a comparison. Like Clarke, Gibson was not a starter, nor did his numbers jump off the page. What he provided was versatility to guard multiple positions and offensive rebounding (2.1). The Clarke extension would represent 12.8% of the 2023-24 salary cap.
Jordan Poole
UPDATE: Poole agreed to a four-year, $140 million contract extension with the Warriors on Saturday.
Poole has been one of the great success stories of the 2019 draft. The third-to-last pick in the first round, Poole averaged 8.8 points in 22.4 minutes on 33% shooting from the field and 27.9% from 3 in his rookie season, during which the Warriors finished 15-50.
An extended stint in the G League in his second season seemed to jumpstart his development, and in his third season he averaged 18.5 points, shooting 44.8% from the field and 36.4% from 3, to help Golden State win the NBA championship. In his 51 starts last season, Poole averaged 20.8 PPG and shot 37% on 3s. Per Second Spectrum tracking, he ranked third in points per chance on drives among 68 players to record 500-plus drives, trailing Giannis Antetokounmpo and DeMar DeRozan.
Why a deal might get done: Tyler Herro.
The Miami Heat guard did the Warriors no favors when he signed a four-year, $120 million rookie extension that can increase another $10 million with unlikely bonuses. Poole's representatives will look at the $27 million first-year salary as a starting point in negotiations. The Warriors will likely draw a line in the sand on that salary, but a baseline has been established. Herro's extension also takes him off the board as a potential free agent in 2023, an offseason in which at least 10 teams will have sizable cap space. If Poole doesn't sign an extension now, he could see a Herro-like offer as a restricted free agent, especially if he can build on his career year from 2021-22.
Why there might be no extension: Finances. Owner Joe Lacob has already gone on the record saying that paying $400 million in salary and tax penalties next season is not going to happen. It doesn't take a math major to realize that either Poole or Andrew Wiggins will need to go for the Warriors to stay under that number. Including Draymond Green's $27.6 million player option, the Warriors are right at the $161 million tax threshold. Retaining Poole and Wiggins for $25 million each -- a conservative figure -- would result in a $245 million tax penalty for Golden State.
Poole is a priority, but there is a basketball component Golden State must weigh when looking at his salary. Defensively, Poole was a liability in the playoffs, especially when getting pulled into a pick-and-roll. Per Second Spectrum, the Warriors allowed 1.28 points per direct pick when Poole was defending the screener on an on-ball screen. That was the second-worst efficiency allowed in a postseason since player tracking began in 2013-14 (min. 100 direct picks).
The counterargument is that while Poole is a liability on defense, the Warriors have boxed themselves into a financial corner and the cost to retain Poole is likely to be higher if he becomes a restricted free agent. The maximum offer sheet Poole can sign with a team next offseason is $144 million, nearly $24 million more than what Herro signed with the Heat.
The new contract: Four years, $115 million with a starting salary of $25.7 million. That contract is 19.2% of the 2023-24 salary cap and slightly more than the four-year, $100 million contract that Anfernee Simons signed in Portland this offseason.
Similar to the Herro extension, the contract would contain an additional $10 million in unlikely bonuses. The difference is Herro's bonuses are tied to individual achievements (All-NBA, MVP, etc.), while Poole's would be for team success (winning the title, reaching the Finals, etc.).
More rookie extension notes
Kevin Porter Jr.: Last season, he recorded a 52.6% effective field goal percentage on jumpers, up from 45.6% in 2020-21 and 43.4% in 2019-20, per Second Spectrum tracking. Porter recorded an effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers 20.3% above expectation (qSM), the highest of any player in a season since player tracking began in 2013-14 (min. 125 FGA). The 71.2% effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers was the highest among any player with at least 125 attempts. (UPDATE: Porter and the Rockets agreed to a four-year, $82.5 million extension.)
Nassir Little: The 22-year-old could be the Trail Blazers' starting small forward when the season starts. In 23 games as a starter last year, Little averaged 11.1 points, shooting 46% from the field and 34% from 3. He has missed a total of 65 games in his first three seasons, including 35 last year because of a season-ending shoulder injury. (UPDATE: Little and the Blazers agreed to a four-year, $28 million extension.)
Matisse Thybulle: Thybulle held opponents to 38.6% shooting as the closest defender, the second-lowest field goal percentage allowed (behind only the Boston Celtics' Robert Williams III). Thybulle's 23 blocked 3-pointers were the most in the NBA. The downside to Thybulle's elite defense is a non-existent offensive game. Thybulle averaged 5 points, shooting 31.2% from deep with the third-worst field goal percentage (28.5%) among all players on wide-open 3-pointers. The 76ers owe a first-round pick in 2023, 2025 and 2027. They do own their 2029 first (along with swap rights in 2024 and 2029) but extending Thybulle removes one of the few trade options they have.
Others: Coby White (Chicago), Dylan Windler (Cleveland), Goga Bitadze (Indiana), Jaxson Hayes (New Orleans), Cam Reddish (New York), Darius Bazley (Oklahoma City), Romeo Langford (San Antonio), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Utah) and Rui Hachimura (Washington)
Veteran extension candidates
Monday isn't just the deadline for rookie extensions. There are also players, like Jaylen Brown, Dejounte Murray, Domantas Sabonis and Pascal Siakam, who have two years left on their contract and are not eligible to sign an extension once Monday passes.
However, unlike CJ McCollum, who signed an extension with the New Orleans Pelicans this summer, expect the deadline to pass without any new deals for this quartet.
Brown, Murray and Sabonis all signed what are now considered team-friendly rookie extensions and are limited to only a 120% salary increase in the first year of a new extension. Brown is eligible for a three-year, $119.5 million extension. Sabonis' deal would be for three years and $75.4 million. Both players would leave more than $100 million in future earnings on the table by agreeing to a deal now.
Murray was traded in the offseason, and the maximum he can extend for is an additional one season and with only a 105% increase.
Multiple teams ESPN talked to believe that the current extension rules should be revised in the next CBA. Instead of limiting the first year of an extension to a 120% raise, teams would like to see a player be allowed to receive a salary that starts at 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap depending on their years of service -- just like if they were a free agent.
Under this type of system, Zach LaVine would have been eligible to sign a four-year, $166.2 million max extension with the Chicago Bulls' during the 2021-22 season. Instead, because he was limited to a starting salary of only $23.4 million on an extension (120% off his $19.5 million salary), both sides were in a holding pattern until the offseason -- when LaVine did end up re-signing in Chicago on a max deal.
A change in the extension rule would enhance the likelihood that the player remains with his current team.
Unlike Brown, Murray and Sabonis, Siakam can sign a three-year, $136.7 million max extension this weekend. However, if the forward was named to an All-NBA team for a second consecutive season, he would then become eligible to sign a supermax extension for five years and up to $285.6 million either next summer or in 2024 when he becomes a free agent.
There is also a group of players -- including Draymond Green, Khris Middleton and Fred VanVleet -- who have two years left on their contract but with a player option in the second year. Those players don't face the same Monday deadline but would have to eliminate their player option if they wanted to sign an extension.
If Green does sign an extension during the season, the starting salary in the first year must be a minimum of $27.6 million, the salary of the player option that was declined.
A total of 14 players have signed veteran extensions this offseason, seven less than in the 2021-22 season.
Monday deadline: Joe Harris, Gordon Hayward, Klay Thompson, Eric Gordon, Buddy Hield, Marcus Morris Sr., Markelle Fultz, Tobias Harris, De'Anthony Melton and Monte Morris.
June 30 deadline: Justin Holiday, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Al Horford, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving, Mason Plumlee, Jalen McDaniels, Nick Richards, Nikola Vucevic, Kevin Love, Caris LeVert, Christian Wood, Dwight Powell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Andrew Wiggins, Derrick Favors, KJ Martin, Myles Turner, Russell Westbrook, Dillon Brooks, Xavier Tillman, Brook Lopez, D'Angelo Russell, Naz Reid, Jaylen Nowell, Trey Burke, Terrence Ross, Shake Milton, Isaiah Joe, Dario Saric, Jae Crowder, Dario Saric, Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, Tre Jones, Jakob Poeltl, Bojan Bogdanovic, Malik Beasley, Jordan Clarkson, Kyle Kuzma, Vernon Carey Jr. and Kristaps Porzingis.
The new way to compare rookie extensions and future salaries
It's easy to use player comps as a gauge when examining extensions and new contracts. In fact, it was only a month ago that RJ Barrett signed a four-year, $107 million extension (with $13 million in bonuses) that was being compared to the extension Jaylen Brown signed in Boston.
The extension is comparable to Jaylen Brown but with a different bonus structure. https://t.co/rQ7Ld6BKNc
— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) September 2, 2022
But here is the difference: The Brown extension was three years ago when the salary cap was $109.1 million. The $23 million in salary in the first year represented 21% of the salary cap in 2020-21. If Brown signed that same extension now, the starting salary would be $28 million, a $5 million difference.
With the salary cap now expected to increase to $134 million (a $25 million jump from three years ago) in 2023-24, it is time to look at comparable contracts not based on salary but on a percentage of the cap.
Here is another example: In 2018, Indiana Pacers big Myles Turner signed a four-year, $72 million extension. The first-year salary of $18 million represented 16% of the 2019-20 salary cap. In today's economics, Turner's extension would be for four years and $88 million.
The roster decisions teams face
What started as more than 550 players (not including two-way contracts) when training camp began will be reduced to fewer than 450 when the rosters are set Monday.
However, while Monday is the final day to trim the roster to the league mandatory 15 players, Saturday is the last day to waive a player and not accrue a per-day cap hit. For example, Boston would be charged $14,158 per day if Noah Vonleh is not waived by 5:00 p.m. Saturday -- which would result in a $53,000 tax penalty.
For teams interested in claiming a player, the league uses the standings in reverse order from 2021-22 season for claiming purposes. Only teams that have cap space (Indiana and San Antonio) or a trade exception can claim a player who signed for more than the minimum.
The list of teams with a trade exception include Atlanta ($3.65M and $4.56M), Boston ($6.9M, $5.89M, $2.16M, $1.66M, $1.78M), Brooklyn ($2.5M, $1.66M) Cleveland ($3.91M), Denver ($3.47M), Houston ($3.89M), LA Clippers ($9.7M), Los Angeles Lakers ($1.66M), Miami ($1.78M), Minnesota ($4.37M), New Orleans ($1.78M), Oklahoma City ($10.18M and $4.22M), Philadelphia ($1.66M), Portland ($6.51M and $3.26M), Sacramento ($4.02M and $1.63M), Toronto ($5.25M), Utah ($9.77M, $9.61M, $6.74M, $2.74M, $1.51M) and Washington ($5.22M and $3.98M).
Here are the six teams to watch as the Monday roster deadline approaches:
Detroit: The two-for-one Bojan Bogdanovic trade alleviated the roster concerns in Detroit. Now with 16 guaranteed contracts, expect Kemba Walker to be waived by Monday.
Houston: The Rockets are at 16 guaranteed contracts after Maurice Harkless and Theo Maledon were waived. The next player is likely to be veteran Derrick Favors. If that is the case, all four players acquired in the trade with the Thunder will have been waived. Keep in mind that Houston received $6.3 million from Oklahoma City to offset the salary difference.
Memphis: Including the partially guaranteed contract of injured guard Danny Green, Memphis has 16 players under contract and will need to waive or trade a player. Because the roster is stockpiled with recent draft picks on inexpensive contracts, the lone option if there is no trade could come down to waiving Green's expiring contract.
Oklahoma City: The Thunder trimmed their roster to 17 guaranteed contracts after Sterling Brown was put on waivers. The next two players waived will likely come from the group of Trey Burke, Marquese Chriss and David Nwaba.
San Antonio: Expect Tre Jones to have his $1.8 million contract guaranteed. That leaves the Spurs with 15 guaranteed contracts and one non-guaranteed salary, Keita Bates-Diop.
Utah: The Jazz have 17 guaranteed contracts and have to waive or trade two players. Barring a trade that sends out two players, Utah could be faced with a decision on releasing two out of three players including Stanley Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Leandro Bolmaro.