There is no shame in how the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks' season ended.
A tough seven-game series against Boston, with the Bucks missing All-Star Khris Middleton, only confirms that Milwaukee should be one of the favorites to win the championship next season.
The priority for Milwaukee this offseason should be retooling its bench.
State of the team
Roster status: Championship-caliber starting five, but a bench that needs to be addressed
When you have a franchise player like Giannis Antetokounmpo on the roster, the window to compete for a championship is open for the foreseeable future.
However, as the recent playoffs proved, Antetokounmpo's brilliance alone cannot bring the Bucks to a championship without a strong supporting cast.
Khris Middleton's injury played a huge role in the Bucks' exit from the playoffs, and it highlighted an Achilles heel within their roster: the bench.
Because of Middleton's injury, the Bucks had only two NBA-ready players whom they could rely on off the bench: Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton. George Hill averaged 16.3 minutes but shot 20% from the field, averaging 1.3 points per game.
The offseason presents an opportunity for Milwaukee to reshape its roster.
The player options of Portis and Connaughton will dictate how it accomplishes that. Milwaukee is a luxury tax team, and if both players defect, the $6.4 million tax midlevel and the veteran minimum exception are the lone resources to replace them in free agency.
The Bucks do have their own first, which they can keep or trade the night of the draft, along with $26 million in the combined contracts of Hill, Brook Lopez and Grayson Allen.
Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton
Portis and Connaughton now enter the offseason with decisions to make regarding their futures.
Each has a player option in their contract, and it is likely that Portis will decline his $4.5 million salary in 2022-23 and become a free agent.
Not picking up the option is a business decision.
Unlike last offseason, when the Bucks were restricted to offering the forward a contract that could not exceed $4.5 million (120% of his 2020-21 salary), Portis is now allowed to sign a contract that starts at $10.9 million because he has established early Bird rights. The contract has to be for a minimum of two seasons and cannot include a player option in the second year.
If Portis agrees to a two-year $22.6 million contract with the Bucks, he will enter free agency in 2024 when he is 29 years old.
On the court, Portis started 55 regular-season games in place of the injured Brook Lopez, averaging 16.1 points on 49% shooting and 41% on 3-pointers. In seven games as a starter in the playoffs the past two years, he averaged 15.4 points and 11.3 rebounds.
At the minimum, he should see offers starting at the $10.3 million midlevel exception from non-cap space teams, and if the Bucks lose him, they would be left with the $6.4 million tax midlevel and veteran minimum exception as tools for replacing him.
Connaughton has a $5.7 million player option, but there are no restrictions on what the Bucks can offer him with a new contract. The guard has Bird rights (from being on the roster for three or more seasons) and Milwaukee can sign him for up to 30% of the salary cap.
The guard averaged a career high 9.9 points this season, shooting 39.5% from three -- the highest of his career. Of the 146 3-pointers made by Connaughton, 142 of them were catch-and-shoot looks, per ESPN Stats & Information. That ranked 19th overall among all players. The Bucks as a team ranked fourth on catch-and-shoot 3s this season.
The Bucks' financial outlook and the loss of Donte DiVincenzo makes signing Connaughton a priority if he declines his option.
The next contract for Connaughton should range between $8 million and $10 million, similar to the two-year, $18.7 million extension that his teammate Grayson Allen signed last October.
Khris Middleton
Middleton is under contract for the 2022-23 season but is eligible for an extension this offseason.
Middleton's importance to Milwaukee was visible in the second-round loss to Boston.
Without the All-Star, Milwaukee ranked last in offensive efficiency, shot 28.5% from three and shot 25% on shots from between five and nine feet away from the basket. Its rankings in all three categories were in the bottom among the eight semifinal teams. In the regular season, the Bucks ranked third in offensive efficiency and shot 36.6% from three (fifth overall) with Middleton in the lineup.
Because Middleton has two years left on his contract (the second year is a player option) the Bucks can tack on three additional years or four if the $40.4 million player option in 2023-24 is declined. However, the starting salary in the first year of the extension cannot be less than the declined option.
There are no restrictions on a starting salary for an extension if Middleton opts into his contract.
For example, the Bucks can extend him for two years and $50 million, with a starting salary of $25 million in 2024-25.
For a third consecutive season, Middleton has averaged at least 20 points per game, but he has started to see a decline in shooting efficiency. Middleton shot 39.2% on off-the-dribble jump shots this season, down from 45.9% (ranked fourth among all players) in the past two seasons, per Second Spectrum tracking.
Overall, he shot 44.3% from the field (his lowest since 2013-14) and 37.3% from three (lowest since 2017-18).
A concern with extending Middleton to a lucrative contract is the workload that he has endured since the 2017-18 season.
The guard currently ranks seventh in games played and fifth in minutes among all active players. He will turn 33 years old in the first year of a possible new contract.
Offseason cap breakdown and depth chart
Team needs
Bench scoring if Connaughton does not return
Depth at small, power forward and center (if no Portis)
Insurance policy at backup point guard
Resources to build the roster
The draft: 2022 first-round pick
Own free agents: Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis
Exception: $6.4 million tax midlevel
Cash: $6.3 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
June 21: Thanasis Antetokounmpo has a $1.9 million player option in his contract. Antetokounmpo has established Bird rights (on the roster for three years or more), allowing the Bucks to exceed the cap to sign him if the player option is declined. The market for him is the veteran minimum exception of $1.9 million.
June 22: Guard Pat Connaughton has a $5.7 million player option in his contract.
June 29: Bobby Portis has a $4.6 million player option in his contract.
June 29: 2020 second-round pick Jordan Nwora is eligible to receive a $2 million qualifying offer that would make him a restricted free agent. Nwora averaged a career high 19.1 minutes and 7.9 points this season. He had 21 games of double-digit points, including a career high of 28 versus Cleveland and the Los Angeles Clippers. Two-way-contract player Lindell Wigginton is also eligible to receive a $50,000 qualifying offer.
Restrictions
Milwaukee is allowed to trade their 2022 first the night of the draft but is restricted in future years. Because they owe a first in 2023, 2025 and 2027, the earliest first that the Bucks can trade is in 2029.
Grayson Allen has a poison pill restriction in his contract that will get lifted on July 1. Because Allen signed a rookie extension last October, his outgoing salary in a trade is his 2021-22 salary and incoming salary for the new team is the average of the extension and last year of the rookie scale contract. For example, if Allen is traded prior to July 1, his outgoing salary is $4.1 million and incoming salary is $7.6 milion.
Luca Vildoza (July 6) and Rayjon Tucker (July 8) have trade restrictions in their contract because they were signed at the end of the regular season.
Extension-eligible
Brook Lopez is entering the last year of his contract, and Milwaukee can extend him for four additional seasons and up to $74.7 million (a starting salary of $16.7 million in the first year). The veteran missed 69 games this season recovering from back surgery. Lopez continues to be a presence on the defensive end. Per Second Spectrum, he allowed opponents to shoot 48.8% in the restricted area when contesting shots as the closest defender over the past two seasons. That is the second lowest behind Jaren Jackson Jr. The projection for Lopez on an extension is two years, $20 million.
The draft assets
The Bucks have their own first in the June draft.
From the P.J. Tucker trade last year, Milwaukee owes Houston an unprotected first in 2023. The pick was originally acquired from Cleveland as part of the James Harden trade.
They also owe either New Orleans (if 1-4) or Portland (if 5-30) a 2025 first and the Pelicans a 2027 unprotected first.
The Pelicans also have the right to swap firsts in 2024 and 2026.
Here's whom ESPN's Mike Schmitz has Milwaukee selecting in July:
No. 24 (own): E.J. Liddell | PF | Ohio State
One of the most improved players in college, Liddell has turned himself into a first-round pick by modernizing his game on both ends of the floor as a powerful 4/5. He has trimmed down, evolved as a perimeter shooter (38% from 3), expanded his playmaking off the dribble, become an asset in switch situations and developed into a true defensive anchor for the Buckeyes thanks to his stellar timing and nonstop motor. Scouts still have questions about Liddell's long-term upside as he stands no taller than 6-foot-7 with average positional length, a flat jumper that might take time to adjust to the NBA line and a somewhat power-reliant game. Can Liddell score efficiently against NBA-caliber rim protectors? If not, is he a skilled enough shooter, passer and ball handler to be an asset on the perimeter? Does Liddell project as more of an energy guy, or is he the next collegiate winner who scouts will overlook because of his less-than-stellar measurables, underrating his incredible intangibles, productivity, basketball IQ and toughness? -- Schmitz