The Philadelphia 76ers' season ended in the second round of the playoffs for the second straight year. The loss to the Miami Heat now begins an offseason of questions as to whether this roster can compete for a championship.
If the answer is no, does Philadelphia have enough trade capital to improve the roster?
State of the team
Roster status: Championship or bust
In mid-February, the team traded for James Harden, hoping the former MVP was the missing player who could help bring the 76ers a championship.
"The way this league works, you have to get players the caliber of a James Harden to pair with a Joel Embiid and a Tobias [Harris]," president of basketball operations Daryl Morey said. "You can win without it. But you look historically in the league, you're looking at pretty long odds if you don't have two great players of that level of play out there." Morey was right about needing a second high-caliber player, but the question remains: Is Harden that second great player?
The most likely answer is no.
Harden is still an All-Star and the 76ers would have been likely eliminated in the first round without him on the roster. However, the series loss to Miami suggests he is not the player Morey watched win an MVP in Houston.
The $47 million question entering the offseason is what Harden does with his player option.
He is eligible to sign the largest contract in NBA history -- $270 million over five years if he becomes a free agent -- or sign a four-year, $223 million extension if he opts in.
If he opts into his contract, the 76ers will have $136.4 million in guaranteed money. That amount does not include the $10 million non-guaranteed contract of Danny Green that would push the 76ers right up against the $149 million luxury tax threshold.
If he declines the option, it will be up to Morey and Harden to compromise on the next contract. Signing for a starting salary of less than $47.4 million could allow the team to chase that additional star who Morey believes he needs.
Outside of the trade market with their own players, the team's only roster resources available are a potential first-round pick (if Brooklyn defers to 2023) and the $6.4 million tax midlevel exception.
Their lone free agents are Paul Millsap and DeAndre Jordan, but the 76ers do have roster flexibility because of the five players on non-guaranteed contracts, including Green.
James Harden
We will learn whether the 76ers fall into the trap of extending Harden to a lucrative contract based on what he accomplished in the past rather than his current and future play.
Or perhaps they meet somewhere in the middle.
The past shows a player that averaged over 30 points per game in three straight seasons -- the last player to accomplish that was Michael Jordan -- prior to his arrival in Brooklyn, with an MVP award in 2018 and six appearances on the All-NBA first team.
The present shows a player who scored 22 points and handed out 15 assists in the series-clinching win against the Toronto Raptors, but who has lost a step and has seen his shooting decline significantly over the past two seasons.
The eye test and analytics confirm Harden's struggles. Per ESPN Stats & Information:
Harden finished the season shooting 47.6% on 2-pointers, the second-worst mark for a season in his career and his worst since his rookie year.
9.6% of his shot attempts have been blocked this season, the highest rate among players to attempt 700 shots (including regular season and playoffs).
In 2019-20, Harden blew by his defender on 44.1% of his drives. That percentage dropped to 30.3% in 2020-21 and 29.1% this season.
Harden shot 33% on 3-pointers this season, the worst percentage for a season in his career.
He shot 48% on transition field goal attempts this season, his worst field goal percentage on those shots in a season since player tracking began in 2013-14.
Most alarmingly, Harden shot under 50% on layups and dunks (a minimum 300 attempts) during the regular season, per Second Spectrum tracking. The only other player was the New York Knicks' RJ Barrett.
The struggles coincide with the fact that Harden has played 30,000 minutes since the 2012-13 season (the only other player is LeBron James) and has missed 39 games (35 because of a hamstring) the past two seasons. Prior to his stint in Brooklyn, Harden missed just 39 games since 2009.
Harden should still be viewed as an elite playmaker, but not the franchise player who can carry an organization like he was in Houston. Harden turned back the clock with 31 points in Game 4 of the Miami series but followed that up with just 14 points two nights later.
For a second straight season, Harden has created more points off assists than he scored himself. Dating back to his final few games in Brooklyn, Harden has not attempted 20 shots in a game in 33 consecutive games, the second-longest streak of his career.
The max contract (or extension) should be viewed as a nonstarter for the 76ers. But is there a compromise available between both sides?
Harden has until June 29 to opt into his contract for next season, and that decision will have lasting financial consequences for the 76ers and for Harden.
There are no free-agency suitors outside of Philadelphia who have sizable cap space, but Harden at least has a $47.4 million one-year insurance policy. That was the original plan at the time of the trade, but Harden failed to finalize the opt-in paperwork.
Opting in and playing out the season is a lose-lose for both sides, especially Harden.
Harden would be on an expiring contract, and while he is eligible to sign a $223 million extension in August, that scenario is unlikely now because of the $49.7, $53.7, $57.7 and $61.7 million cap hits the 76ers would inherit. That contract would perhaps become one of the most burdensome in league history.
Because of his injury history, age (he'll turn 33 in August) and decline, teams that have financial flexibility in 2023 will hit the pause button on exploring a Harden fit at more than $30 million per year if he becomes a free agent.
The short-term ramifications for Philadelphia leaves them with $136 million in guaranteed contracts and no flexibility to add a free agent via a sign-and-trade or to sign a marquee free agent outright even if they shed Harris' $37.6 million contract.
Looking at the big picture, the 76ers' roster in 2023 without Harden is one consisting of Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Furkan Korkmaz, Tyrese Maxey and $35 million in room. It is essentially the same roster that went 32-22 before the Harden trade. Although this would give the 76ers the greatest amount of financial flexibility, having Harden on the roster gives them a better chance of competing for a championship.
With Harden on the roster following the trade, Philadelphia improved from 14th to eighth in offensive efficiency while going 19-9. They likely wouldn't have advanced past the Raptors if Harden was not on the court.
This leads us to the compromise that both sides need to make.
Harden and Philadelphia can walk away with a best-case scenario if they use Chris Paul's 2021 contract as a blueprint.
Last July, Paul declined a $44.1 million player option and signed a four-year $120 million contract with the Suns. The trade off of giving back $14.1 million in the first year (the difference between the option year and new contract) was the financial security that Paul received in the future.
In return, the Suns stayed below the luxury tax this season and gained additional flexibility to sign Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet to rookie extensions last October.
In total, Paul received $76 million in new money but with only $33 million guaranteed.
It would be a big ask of Harden to take less money in the first year and also not guarantee the back end of the contract like the Suns did with Paul -- especially considering that Harden is four years younger than Paul when he signed his contract.
What if the 76ers gave Harden a five-year, $150 million contract with more guaranteed money in the first four seasons and various benchmarks in Year 5 that would make it fully guaranteed?
Here is what an example of a Harden contract that benefits both sides:
2022-23 | $28.0M
2023-24 | $29.0M
2024-25 | $30.0M
2025-26 | $31.5M
2026-27 | $31.5M
As Harden ages, the contract stays flat, giving Philadelphia protection in the last three years. He would lose $19 million in the first year but gain an additional $71 million in guaranteed money in Years 2 through 4.
The final year of the contract is fully guaranteed if Harden plays in 65 or more games during three of the four prior seasons or Philadelphia reaches the NBA Finals in any of the first four years of the contract.
The 76ers not only stay under the luxury tax next season but now have the flexibility to create a max slot this offseason if they find a taker for Harris.
Offseason cap breakdown and depth chart
Team needs
Bench scoring
Backup center
Resources to build the roster
The draft: 2022 first-round pick (if Brooklyn defers)
Exception: $6.3 million tax midlevel
Cash: $6.3 million to send or receive via trade
Dates to watch
June 1: One of the conditions in the Harden trade was that Brooklyn had the right to defer the 76ers' 2022 first-rounder it's slated to receive to next year. The pick is currently slotted at No. 23. If Brooklyn passes, Philadelphia will owe the Nets an unprotected first-rounder in 2023.
June 29: This is the deadline for Harden to opt into his $47.4 million contract. The 76ers also have a decision to make on the $2 million team option for Shake Milton. If the option is exercised, the contract becomes guaranteed in 2022-23. Because Milton signed a two-way contract in 2018, he will become an unrestricted free agent this offseason if the option is not picked up. Milton averaged 21.4 minutes this season and 8.1 points. Because of the lack of quality guards on the free-agent market and because Philadelphia only has the veteran minimum to replace him, it is likely that the option gets exercised.
July 1: Philadelphia will need to decide if retaining Green for 2022-23 is worth paying the luxury tax. Green has a $10 million contract that will become guaranteed if he is not waived. With Green's contract on the books, Philadelphia projects to be $9 million over the threshold. This season, Green averaged the second lowest minutes (21.8) and points (5.2) since his second year in the NBA.
The 76ers can use summer league to evaluate 2020 second-round pick Isaiah Joe. His $1.8 million contract does not become guaranteed until the first day of the regular season.
There is no trigger date on the $1.8 million non-guaranteed contract of Paul Reed.
Restrictions
Because of the trades with Brooklyn and the Oklahoma CIty Thunder, the 76ers are restricted in sending out a first-round pick in a future deal. They are allowed to trade their 2022 first-rounder (if Brooklyn defers to 2023) but only on the night of the draft.
Harris has a trade bonus that is the lesser of $5 million or 5% of his remaining salary. If Harris is traded, the bonus is valued at $3.8 million and will be added to future salary. For example, if Harris is traded in July, $1.9 million is added to his $37.6 and $39.3 million cap hits for the next two years. That number shrinks to $1.26 million if traded before June 30 and then added to his current salary and also the next two years.
Harden and Milton cannot be traded because of the options in their contract.
There is no trade value of the Reed and Joe contracts. Non-guaranteed salary (unless protected) does not count as outgoing salary in a trade. Charles Bassey only counts for $74,742.
Extension-eligible
In the Harden news conference, Morey made it well known that retaining forward Matisse Thybulle was a priority. "Thybulle easily could be Defensive Player of the Year, after Joel wins it first. ... Sky's the limit, and that's a big reason we made sure [Maxey and Thybulle] weren't in this trade." This season, per ESPN Stats & Information research, Thybulle held opponents to 38.6% shooting as the closest defender, the second-lowest field goal percentage allowed (only behind the Boston Celtics' Robert Williams III). Thybulle's 23 blocked 3-pointers were the most in the NBA. The downside to Thybulle's elite defense is the nonexistent offensive game that goes with it. Thybulle averaged 5 points, shooting 31.2% from deep with the third-worst field goal percentage (28.5%) among all players on wide open 3-pointers. Thybulle is extension-eligible up until the last day of the offseason. A new contract removes one of the few trade chips that Philadelphia has available.
Harris is extension eligible, and it is hard to see Philadelphia extending the forward when you consider that there are two years left on his contract and he is not a free agent until 2024. Unless Harris wants to take a team-friendly extension (such as two years and $40 million), Philadelphia should table any extension talks. Extending Harris for more than one season would remove him from the trade market for six months.
Milton (if the team option is exercised) and Joe (if his contract is guaranteed) are also extension-eligible.
The draft
The 76ers do not have a first- or second-round pick in the June draft.
They will have the 23rd pick if Brooklyn elects to defer until 2023.
From the Al Horford trade, Philadelphia will send Oklahoma City a 2025 top-6 protected, 2026 top-4 protected or 2027 top-4 protected first-rounder.
Two years after the pick to the Thunder is conveyed, Philadelphia will send Brooklyn a 2027 or 2028 top-8 protected first-rounder.
For example, if Thunder receive a first-rounder in 2025, the Nets will now have the 76ers' top-8 protected first-rounder in 2027. If Oklahoma City does not receive a first-rounder by 2026, then Brooklyn would receive a top-8 protected first-rounder in 2028.
Philadelphia has three future second-rounders.