The Cleveland Cavaliers are the epitome of life in the NBA changing quickly.
Two months ago, Cleveland was sitting on a 35-23 record, and the only uncertainty was which top-six seed they would finish with.
Now, two losses in the play-in tournament have Cleveland preparing for the offseason.
It is easy to label this season as a disappointment, or even a failure considering the Cavaliers' record in mid-February.
Neither word is accurate. This year was about learning how to win and how to deal with adversity, something this young Cleveland team encountered during the 2021-22 season.
MORE: Cavaliers rank 17th in Future Power Rankings
State of the roster
Roster status: A solid foundation
The Cavaliers went 8-20 after the All-Star break but that shouldn't be taken as a sign that Cleveland is headed back to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
Cleveland proved through the first 58 games this season (35-23) that there is a solid foundation in place. The tailspin to end the year was more of a result of injuries that impacted the roster.
When Cleveland had Darius Garland, Lauri Markkanen, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen all in the starting lineup, the Cavs were 19-10. Remove even one of the players and the Cavs' record falls to .500.
During the last two months of the season, Cleveland lost Allen for an extended absence and Evan Mobley to end the season. Two other starters, Garland and Markkanen, missed at a minimum of eight games during the season also.
In the games Allen missed, Cleveland's defensive rating dropped from fourth to 23rd.
The focus in the offseason starts with a player who appeared in only seven games: Collin Sexton, who is a restricted free agent. The Cavaliers have a decision to make on how he fits with the current roster.
The price point of a new Sexton contract will determine if the Cavaliers have access to their full $10.3 million midlevel exception.
The rookie extension of Darius Garland will also be front and center when free agency opens on July 1. Cleveland returns eleven players, and if Garland is extended, its core players will all be under contract at least through the 2024-25 season.
Collin Sexton
There are a couple different ways to look at how the Cavaliers proceed with the restricted free agent Sexton.
Sexton missed most of the regular season, and despite concerns about his injury and his long-term fit with Garland, he will receive an $8.6 million qualifying offer by June 29. He will become a restricted free agent, giving Cleveland the rights to match on an offer sheet.
From a medical standpoint, the Cavaliers will have the best insight on how the guard has recovered from a torn left meniscus that cost him most of the season. If there are no red flags to his knee, Cleveland can take a more proactive approach to a new contract if the belief is that Sexton is part of the team's future. They can also walk away from an offer sheet if there are concerns regarding his knee and they feel the contract is more of a liability.
The last and most important decision is whether the front office views Sexton as a core player along the lines of Garland, Mobley, Allen or as a player they could use in a trade.
Per ESPN Stats & Information, in the 173 minutes that Garland and Sexton played together before the injury, the Cavaliers had a minus-6.3 net efficiency. Last season, the Cavaliers were outscored by 8.1 points per game per 100 possessions when Garland and Sexton were both on the court in nearly 1,100 minutes.
In comparison, the backcourt of Garland and Isaac Okoro this season were a plus-6.6 per 100 possessions when both were on the court.
The Cavaliers offense has also been efficient with the ball in Garland's hand.
Per ESPN Stats & Information, Garland was one of six players (Luka Doncic, Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young and James Harden) to average five dribbles per touch since Nov. 10. He is also one of six players to record at least 1,000 drives since the Sexton injury in November.
Despite concerns of how players fit long-term, Sexton should still have value, either for the Cavaliers or possibly in a sign-and-trade. The guard had a career year in 2020-21, averaging 24.3 points and shooting 47.5% from the field.
The Cavaliers' finances in 2022-23 will play a role in his future.
Including their draft pick and non-guaranteed salaries (Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens), the Cavaliers have a $21 million buffer below the luxury tax threshold. It is unlikely that Sexton would receive an offer sheet north of $21 million per season, but if that scenario happens, the Cavaliers will have a decision to make.
Darius Garland
The big question with regard to Garland is if the Cleveland front office feels he is a max player. If the answer is yes, the lone negotiations on an extension will involve All-NBA language and a potential player option in the last season.
There is a strong case to be made for Garland being worthy of a $181 million extension.
After March 1, Garland averaged 25.2 points and 10.8 assists. He is one of two players (Trae Young is the other) who averaged 25 points and 10 assists during that span. He also ranked No. 1 in assists since March 1.
April 2021 should have been a sign that Garland was on the verge of having a breakthrough 2021-22 season. In 15 games, Garland averaged 20.5 points and 7.3 assists while shooting 48% from the field, 38.5% from 3.
From a financial outlook, there is no impact on the Cavaliers' cap flexibility and luxury tax. Garland would be earning $31.2 million in 2023-24 but considering that his free-agent hold is $26.7 million, Cleveland is losing only a small savings as it relates to cap space.
The Cavaliers are also set to have the contracts of Kevin Love and Caris LeVert expire in 2023, the year that a Garland extension would start. The Cavs are in no danger of the exceeding the luxury tax level even with the $37 million owed to Jarrett Allen and Lauri Markkanen.
Offseason cap breakdown
Team needs
Health
Backup point guard and center
Resources to build the roster
The draft: A first in the lottery and two seconds
Own free agent: Sexton
Expiring contracts: LeVert and Love
Exceptions: $10.4M midlevel and $4M biannual
Cash: $6.3M to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
JUNE 29: The last day to exercise the $1.9 million team option of Dean Wade. If the option is picked up, the contract will remain non-guaranteed for the 2022-23. Before suffering a right knee injury that caused him to miss the remainder of the regular season and the play-in tournament, Wade averaged 19.2 minutes and 5.3 points, shooting 35.9% from 3. He started 28 games, averaging 26.2 minutes and 7.8 points. The likely scenario is that the option gets exercised and Wade is on the Cavaliers' roster at the start of training camp.
JUNE 29: The last day to tender a qualifying offer to Sexton ($7.2 million), RJ Nembhard Jr. ($1.8 million), Brandon Goodwin ($1.9 million) and Moses Brown ($2.1 million).
There is no offseason trigger date for the $1.8 million non-guaranteed contract of Lamar Stevens.
Restrictions
The Cavaliers are not allowed to trade a first until 2024. They are allowed to trade the rights of their own first in June but only after the draft starts.
Wade cannot be traded until the team option in his contract is exercised.
The Stevens contract has no trade value because it is non-guaranteed.
Extension-eligible
Prior to this season, the thought of extending Love was a nonstarter. Love was on an albatross of a contract, was dealing with injuries and was more likely to be a buyout candidate. This season, Love should be one of the finalists for Sixth Man of the Year. The former All-Star played in his most games since the 2015-16 season, averaging 13.4 points and shooting 38.3% from three. He is on an expiring $28.9 million contract, and there is no restriction on a salary decrease off that number in a new deal. However, Love will turn 34 in September and the 2023-24 season is the first opportunity that Cleveland has cap flexibility to retool their roster.
LeVert is in the prime of his career (turns 28 in August) and has averaged 14.6 points per game during his career. The concern moving forward on the lucrative extension is durability. Since coming into the league in 2016, LeVert has played in 60 or fewer games in every season except 2017-18 (71 games). Prior to Aug. 8, LeVert can only be extended for an additional two seasons and a raise of 5%. He has an extension restriction because of the February trade.
Former first-round pick Dylan Windler is extension-eligible up until the last day of the regular season. Windler has missed 109 games in his three seasons, and he averaged 9.1 minutes in 48 games this season.
The draft
The Cavaliers missed the playoffs and will retain their first-rounder in June. They will now owe Indiana a 2023 top-14 protected first that will turn into a 2025 second if not conveyed next year. The Cavaliers also have a second from San Antonio and Miami.
Here's whom ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have the Cavaliers selecting in June:
No. 14 (own): TyTy Washington, PG/SG, Kentucky
Washington is a highly skilled 6-foot-4 guard with the type of winning pedigree that bodes well for March. Those who followed him closely through high school have long raved about his competitiveness and winning spirit, which despite nagging injuries did shine through at times during his freshman campaign. Washington plays a relatively simple game, thriving off transition hit-aheads, spot 3s, closeout attacks, midrange pull-ups, floaters and occasional ball screens, for which he makes the right play more often than not. -- Schmitz
No. 39 (via SAS): Terquavion Smith, SG, NC State
No. 56 (via MIA): Alondes Williams, PG/SG Wake Forest