The New Orleans Pelicans are on solid footing. You read that right.
Yes, it would seem strange to say that about a team that finished below .500, lost in the first round and is dealing with the uncertain future of Zion Williamson. But the Pelicans are built for long-term success.
Even if Williamson is not healthy next year, New Orleans should be at the very least a play-in team again. The Pelicans also have resources to improve the roster through the draft, and will have a full season of C.J. McCollum, who was acquired from the Portland Trail Blazers at the trade deadline.
The upside of the roster, if Williamson is healthy, is a team that should contend for a top-six seed in the Western Conference.
So how should they move forward this summer, when Williamson -- who missed the entire 2021-22 season -- becomes eligible for a contract extension?
MORE: Pelicans rank 21st in Future Power Rankings
State of the roster
Roster status: Built for sustainable success
After years of playing musical chairs with head coaches, president of basketball operations David Griffin finally got it right with Willie Green. If you want confirmation on why that statement is accurate, go back to his initial news conference after he was named head coach.
"When I think about coaching ... the best coaches are not the X's and O's. People can do that. The best coaches are the ones that you know care about you," Green said. "And connecting with players is no different than just connecting with people. You quickly realize you have a lot more in common than you don't."
The above statement holds true considering that when the Pelicans got off to a 3-16 start it was Green who played a pivotal role in keeping this roster together. Instead of seeing the season continue to spiral, the Pelicans played .500 basketball from that point forward and put themselves in position to contend for a playoff spot.
"We just continued to stay connected, Willie always has a good positive message every single day," Brandon Ingram said after the Pelicans defeated the Lakers in late March.
As for the roster, there are several positives to build on.
New Orleans returns 14 players under contract (Tony Snell is the lone free agent) and while that should be a caution sign especially for a below .500 team, the Pelicans if healthy (yes, that is a big if) can compete with any team in the Western Conference.
Ingram is only 24 years old and has the upside to see his name on an All-NBA team in the future. The only thing that will hold him, and possibly the team, back is health. In the 27 games the forward missed this season, the Pelicans were 7-20. They were above .500 when he played.
The trades for McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas gave New Orleans two established veterans and helped solidify one of the younger rosters in the league. Both trades proved that New Orleans is willing to trade first-round picks for win-now players.
Second-round pick Herbert Jones could become the first rookie named to the All-Defensive team since Tim Duncan in 1998. The league is void of wing defenders and the Pelicans have one of best on a $1.8 million salary for next year.
Outside of the players under contract, New Orleans has the draft assets that can improve the roster. The Pelicans have the Los Angeles Lakers' first-round, unless it falls to the No. 11 slot. Currently slotted at No. 8, the pick has a 26.3% chance of jumping into the top 4 via the lottery. The Pelicans owe their first-round pick to the Hornets.
The Pelicans are also owed three more unprotected firsts (from the Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks) and have the right to swap firsts with the Bucks in 2024 and 2026.
This season proved that New Orleans is good enough to compete for a play-in spot without Williamson. However, for the Pelicans to take the next step in an improved Western Conference (Denver and the Clippers at full strength in 2022-23), Williamson must be on the court and not in street clothes next year.
Zion Williamson
Williamson, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft, can sign a five-year, $181 million max rookie extension this summer. However, giving Williamson the full value without any injury contingencies would be reckless. There is no denying that Williamson, when on the court, is an All-Star, All-NBA and top-20 player. Per ESPN Stats & Information:
In 2020-21 he became the first player in NBA history to average 27 points on 60% shooting in a season.
He averaged 25.7 points and 60.4% shooting in his first two seasons. He is the only player in NBA history to average 25 points and 60% shooting over any two-season span.
During the 2020-21 season, Williamson recorded 20 points on 50% shooting in 25 straight games, tied with Shaquille O'Neal for the longest streak in the shot-clock era (since 1954-55).
He averaged 20.3 paint points in 2020-21, the most in a season since O'Neal in 1999-'00, the year he won MVP.
He averaged 18 points in the restricted area, the most in a season by any player over the last 25 years.
In 2021, he had five games with at least 30 points on 80% shooting, the most in a season since Charles Barkley in 1989-90.
But here is the problem: Over his first three seasons in the NBA, Williamson has played a total of 85 games. He missed 48 games during his rookie season and all 82 this past season. Per ESPN Stats & Information, Williamson is the 3rd No. 1 overall pick in the Modern Era (since 1966) to play fewer than 100 games in the three seasons after being drafted. David Robinson spent the first two years out of college fulfilling his Naval Academy obligations, and Greg Oden dealt with multiple injuries. Both Robinson and Oden played 82 games in three years.
Williamson's injury history is well-documented.
There was the injury in October 2019 that would eventually lead to surgery to repair a torn right meniscus. Despite an original six-to-eight week recovery timeline by the Pelicans, Williamson did not return to game action until Jan. 22, nearly 12 weeks after the surgery.
When he was cleared to play, New Orleans put him on a minutes restriction and gradually increased his workload for the remainder of the season. Before the COVID-19 pandemic put the season on hold, Williamson had played at least 30 minutes in eight consecutive games. After playing five games in the Orlando bubble, his season ended because of a right knee injury.
His second season ended early again last May with a fractured left finger.
And then there is this season.
Williamson broke the fifth metatarsal in his right foot and had surgery in the summer. The injury was not revealed to the public until media day in late September and at the time, the Pelicans head of basketball operations said Williamson could be available for the start of the regular season.
"He had a fractured right foot that was repaired surgically," Griffin said. "His timeline should get him back on the court in time for the regular season. That would be our hope and our view. And we're very optimistic about what that looks like."
Williamson would eventually miss the entire season rehabbing, suffering a setback in early December with soreness in his foot and needing multiple injections to stimulate healing.
The Pelicans now enter the offseason with the biggest decision in franchise history: extend Williamson or play out his final season and wait until he becomes a restricted free agent. The answer to that question is complex.
The full max
In a perfect world, news would begin to leak out July 1 that Williamson and the Pelicans are in agreement to a five-year $181 million rookie max extension.
2022-23 | $31.2M
2023-24 | $33.8M
2024-25 | $36.3M
2025-26 | $38.8M
2026-27 | $41.3M
Similar to the recent extensions signed by Trae Young, Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell, the deal would increase by an additional $36 million if Williamson were to be named All-NBA during the 2022-23 season.
However, the Williamson era in New Orleans has taught us that his next contract is complicated and anything but perfect. Because of the recent foot injury, the $181 million extension would be non-insurable if he suffered an injury again to the same foot. The Pelicans would be responsible for the full amount left on his contract and would not recoup an insurance reimbursement (up to $275K per game) starting in 2022-23 if he were to miss games because of the foot injury.
That means if Williamson were to be named All-NBA in 2022-23, something the Pelicans in the short term would certainly sign up for, his $217.5 million contract, including a last-year salary of $50 million, is not insured. The risk of a full max rookie extension without a safety net could cripple the Pelicans, both financially and when it comes to building out their roster if Williamson suffers another setback.
From the perspective of Williamson, his representatives from CAA will point to the $176.9 million max extension that the Nuggets' Michael Porter Jr. signed before the start of the season. Porter missed his first season because of a back injury but does not have any injury stipulation. The contract is guaranteed for $147.5 million with the remaining balance protected as a result of team success in the playoffs and individual honors earned by Porter.
However, Porter played in only eight regular season games this season before hurting his back in late November. For a second time in four years, he underwent lumbar spine surgery.
The max contract but with restrictions
The five-year, $148 million rookie max extension that Joel Embiid signed in October 2017 is the blueprint when it comes to an organization rewarding a franchise level player but also protecting themselves in case of an injury.
Because Embiid missed the first two seasons as a result of a right foot injury and played in only 31 games in the third year (he missed an additional 37 games because of surgery to his left knee), the 76ers and his representatives from CAA (coincidentally, Williamson has the same agents) worked out a comprehensive contract that included several guaranteed triggers (games and minutes), but protected the 76ers if an injury occurred to Embiid's feet and back. The 76ers would have had a way out of any long-term financial obligations if Embiid had been hurt in the early years of the contract.
Since the 2017 extension, Embiid has had no setbacks because of either foot and recently signed a four-year, $196 million supermax extension with no injury language. He is one the favorites for MVP this season.
If the Pelicans go down the path of including injury protection language, it could look something like this:
Starting with the 2022-23 season, if Williamson misses 25 or more regular season because of any injury to his right foot in any season, the guaranteed amount in the subsequent seasons would be reduced to:
2023-24 | $31.3M
2024-25 | $25.3M
2025-26 | $17.6M
2026-27 | $17.6M
2027-28 | $0
At the minimum, Williamson would still be guaranteed $91 million. Because he is considered a franchise player it would require him to suffer a catastrophic injury before the Pelicans would waive him.
The contract would also become fully guaranteed if Williamson plays 1,650 minutes in three out of four seasons, starting in 2022-23. So for example, if Williamson hits the minutes criteria after the 2025-26 season, the remaining two years would be fully guaranteed even if Williamson got hurt later on.
Waiting until the 2023 offseason
If there is no agreement in place by the Monday before the start of the regular season, Williamson would enter the 2022-23 on an expiring contract and would be set to become a restricted free agent in 2023.
Because he has not met the starter criteria in his contract (41 starts or 2,000 minutes in 2021-22), his current qualifying offer is $7.7 million. If he reaches the criteria next season, his qualifying offer would be $17.6 million -- the largest in NBA history.
Offseason cap breakdown
The Pelicans return 14 players under contract and are $2.2 million below the luxury tax when accounting for the cap hold for the Lakers' first-round pick. New Orleans will have the full $10.3 million midlevel exception but using more than $6.4 million will both hard cap them and put them over the $149 million tax threshold.
Team needs
A healthy Zion Williamson
Resources to build the roster
Continuity: 14 players return
Draft assets: Three unprotected firsts (L.A. Lakers and Milwaukee) and right to swap first with Lakers (2023) and Milwaukee (2024 and 2026)
Exceptions: Tax midlevel ($6.4M) and trade ($6.4M and $1.8M)
Cash: $6.32M to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
JUNE 29: New Orleans has until this date to tender qualifying offers to Jared Harper ($50K) and Gary Clark ($50K).
Restrictions
Brandon Ingram has a 15% trade bonus in his contract. The bonus is voided if Ingram were to be traded.
Jonas Valanciunas has a trade bonus that is the lesser of $1M or 15% of his remaining salary. If Valanciunas is traded in the offseason, the bonus is $1M.
The Pelicans sent out $2M in the Steven Adams trade to Memphis and received $3.7M in two separate deals. Up until July 1, they are restricted to sending out no more than $3.78 million and receiving no more than $2.1 million.
Extension-eligible
Where would the Pelicans be if they did not acquire veteran CJ McCollum prior to the trade deadline? In the 25 games in a New Orleans uniform, McCollum averaged career highs in field goal percentage (49.5%), rebounds (4.9), assists (6.2) and points (26.2). Starting on Aug. 9, the Pelicans can tack on three additional years to the two years remaining on his contract.
Jaxson Hayes went from a part-time player in the first three months of the season (13.4, 11.9 and 13.6 minutes) to a starting power forward next to Jonas Valanciunas. Hayes started 27 games, averaging 27.1 minutes, 11.9 points and 6.2 rebounds. New Orleans was sixth in defensive efficiency after Hayes was inserted into the starting lineup. Despite the production, New Orleans has to weigh how much it trusts Hayes with regards to a new contract. The former lottery pick was arrested last July and charged with 12 misdemeanors, including inflicting corporal injury (domestic violence), destroying property, use of force, resisting a police officer, using force and violence against an LAPD member.
Larry Nance Jr. was acquired at the deadline from Portland. Since the 2015-16 season, the forward has missed a total of 131 games. He underwent arthroscopic right knee surgery in early February and returned in late March. Because he was acquired in a trade, Nance is eligible for an extension for an additional two years and $20.8 million. Starting on Aug. 9, he can sign up to a four-year, $58.3 million extension.
The draft
As of now, New Orleans has three picks in the June draft, including one from the Lakers in the lottery.
They will retain their own first that is owed to Portland if it falls in the top four.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have New Orleans selecting in June:
No. 8 (via LAL): AJ Griffin, SF/PF, Duke
With three rookies already making valuable contributions in postseason play in Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III and Jose Alvarado, the Pelicans add yet another floor spacer to fit alongside Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson (if healthy). Although he still has a ways to go defensively, the 18-year-old Griffin is one of the best spot-shooters in the draft (45% from 3), with underrated ball skills and the strength (225 pounds) and length (7-0 wingspan) to develop into a sound defender as he improves his technique and awareness. The Pelicans have proved they clearly value wings with positional versatility, and Griffin is the best on the board in this part of the draft. With Ingram, McCollum and potentially Williamson as the primary shot creators, adding another off-ball threat who doesn't need offensive volume to add value makes sense for the surging Pelicans. -- Schmitz
No. 47 (via CLE): Josh Minott, PF, Memphis
No. 53 (via UTH): Gabriele Procida, SG, Fortitudo Bologna