A year after making the No. 1 overall pick, the Detroit Pistons once again found themselves near the bottom of the NBA standings this season. However, that doesn't mean the 2021-22 season was a disappointment. Pistons GM Troy Weaver is fully aware that rebuilding a roster in the NBA takes patience.
"The process is to build a sustainable winner, and that takes time," Weaver said after the trade deadline. "I'm sure everyone would like us to fast track it, but you only have one shot at this thing. We'll continue to follow the blueprint and we feel very confident we'll come out on the other side of this thing the right way."
Despite their record, the Pistons are closer to at least making the play-in tournament in 2023 than they are to finishing in the cellar again. Their ongoing rebuild should begin to yield fruit next season, so long as Weaver makes the right moves this offseason and continues to be patient.
Let's take a look at what's ahead for Detroit this summer, keeping in mind that next month's draft lottery could affect some of these plans.
MORE: Pistons rank 23rd in Future Power Rankings
State of the roster
Roster status: Rebuilding, but a potential play-in team in 2023
Detroit laid a blueprint for the team's eventual success after the All-Star break, when the Pistons went 5-6 before losing Jerami Grant for the season, and had lost only one game by at least 10 points (March 11 at Boston) before the season's final weekend.
Compare that to the pre-All-Star break slate, where the Pistons were a dismal 13-45 and had a league-worst minus-10.1 point differential per game.
The credit for the Pistons' improvement largely goes to the play of Grant, Saddiq Bey and No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham, who became the sixth rookie since the merger (1976-77) to average 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in the second half of the season, joining Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Grant Hill and Michael Jordan.
Bey's overall offensive game showed marked improvement, most notably in his 51-point outburst, which included 10 3-pointers made. According to Second Spectrum, Bey has made 158 catch-and-shoot 3 pointers this season, fourth most in the NBA. He is also in the top half of the league in efficiency on isolation players post All-Star break. He had ranked in the bottom five in the NBA prior to early February.
The Pistons had a plus-8.1 net rating when Cunningham, Bey and Grant shared the floor in the second half. They were -12.4 in 514 minutes before the break.
The offseason will present another opportunity to add to the roster. The Pistons will likely have a top-five draft pick and significant cap flexibility to improve the roster around Cunningham, Bey and Grant.
Cap flexibility
For a third consecutive offseason, the Pistons are positioned to spend in free agency. However, unlike recent offseasons, creating flexibility this summer will require both creativity and tough decisions from their front office.
Detroit has $72.9 million in guaranteed contracts (including their first-round pick) and after accounting for their dead money ($11.7 million) and team options ($9.9 million), the Pistons are $25.5 million below the $122 million salary cap.
The first tough decision the Pistons face is on the future of Marvin Bagley III. Detroit took a low-risk gamble on the No. 2 selection of 2018 at the trade deadline and used the two months since as an audition period.
"He's a young man that we like," Weaver told 971's The Ticket's Stoney and Jansen with Heather after the deadline. "We wanted to bring him in and see how he fit with the group, but our plans are to continue working with Marvin and grow him and hopefully he can move forward with us in the future."
Bagley played 18 games (including eight starts) with the Pistons and averaged career highs in minutes (27.2) and field goal percentage (55.5%). The Pistons can tender Bagley a qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. As long as Detroit retains his rights, he'll count as a $28.3 million cap hold, pushing the Pistons over the salary cap.
Bagley is not going to see a salary comparable to his cap hold, but even if Detroit signs him to a contract in the $8 million-$10 million range, they reduce their available cap space to around $15 million.
Detroit also has decisions to make on the team options for Hamidou Diallo ($5.2M), Frank Jackson ($3.2M) and Luka Garza ($1.6M). The three players are on team-friendly contracts and will earn a combined $9.9 million in 2022-23. Diallo started 29 games this season before breaking his left index finger, averaging 11 points per game on 49.6% from the field.
Of course, Detroit has another path to creating additional cap space. The Pistons could retain that trio, re-sign Bagley, and instead move Jerami Grant (more on that below) and his $21 million contract to a team that has a trade exception (for example, Portland) or take less salary back in a deal if multiple players are involved.
There is also the $12.8 million that is owed to Kelly Olynyk, who played a career-low 40 games, due to missing 33 games because of a left knee injury. However, Olynyk did shoot 53.2% from the field and 37% from 3 in March. His $12.2 million contract for 2023-24 is non-guaranteed.
Jerami Grant
There is a false belief in the NBA when it comes to rebuilding and having All-Star level veterans on an expiring contract.
Yes, the Pistons are clearly in the middle stages of rebuilding their roster.
And yes, Grant is set to enter the last year of his contract.
But what if part of the rebuilding process involves surrounding the fourth-youngest roster with a player like Grant (who it should be mentioned is still just 28 years old) and not faceless names of future draft picks?
"You need really good players that are really good people to help lead these young guys," Weaver said after the deadline. "You can't have a team of 15 guys under 24 years old. They'll eat each other and all of them won't make it out."
Grant is set to become a free agent in 2023 and the decision to part with him would be easier if he is not willing to sign a four-year, $112 million extension in the offseason. The Pistons could also elect to go in a different direction if the price on a new deal is too rich. The draft in June could also complicate things if the Pistons select a player like forward Jabari Smith from Auburn.
But remember what Weaver said: A competitive roster should be balanced, and not have 15 players on rookie type contracts.
A Grant extension that starts at $24 million in 2022-23 is a good value deal for a player who has averaged 20 points in the past two seasons and is still in the prime of his career. He has also benefited playing alongside Cunningham.
Per ESPN Stats & Information research, Grant shot 45% from the field and 42% from 3 when on the court with Cunningham. The Pistons have also been outscored by 16.1 points per 100 possessions when Grant is on the court and Cunningham is on the bench.
One date to circle with regards to Grant is Aug. 9. If Grant is not traded by early August, teams are not allowed to extend him for the maximum four years, $112 million if he were to be dealt during the season. They would have to wait until the 2023 offseason when Grant becomes a free agent to re-sign him (which introduces the risk of trading for him, then losing him for nothing).
Offseason cap breakdown
Team needs
Starting point guard to complement Cunningham
Shooting off the bench
Backup small forward and center
Resources to build the roster
The draft: Potential top-four pick
Jerami Grant: Extend or look to move
Cade Cunningham and Saddiq Bey
Potential cap flexibility
Exception: $5.3 million room
Cash: $6.2 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
JUNE 28: Detroit has until this date to exercise the options of Diallo ($5.2M), Jackson ($3.2M) and Garza ($1.6M).
JUNE 28: Cory Joseph has until this date to opt into his $5.2 million contract. A career backup, Joseph started the most games (37) in his career this season. If he were to decline his option, his next salary projects to be in the $5-6 million per year range. He has full Bird rights with Detroit if he does become a free agent.
JUNE 29: The Pistons have until this date to extend Bagley the qualifying offer, making him a restricted free agent. Because Bagley failed to reach starter criteria (41 starts this season or 2,000 minutes), he will now see his $14.7 million qualifying offer decrease to $7.2 million. If an offer is extended, Detroit has July 13 to pull it without the consent of Bagley.
JUNE 29: The Pistons also have until this date to exercise the $1.8 million team option of Carsen Edwards. The contract will remain non-guaranteed if the option is exercised.
JUNE 29: The Pistons have until this date to tender Jamorko Pickett a qualifying offer.
Restrictions
The Pistons owe Oklahoma City a future first-round pick. The pick is top-18 protected in 2023 and 2024, top-13 protected in 2025, top-11 protected in 2026 and top-9 protected in 2027. Because there are protections in each season, Detroit cannot trade a first-round pick without any restrictions until the earliest 2029. They are allowed to trade a first-round pick two years after the conditions to the Thunder are met. However, because of the protections in each season, there is no guarantee that the acquiring team will receive a first from Detroit.
Detroit received $5.78 million from Brooklyn in the DeAndre Jordan trade. The cash received was the maximum allowed and the Pistons are not allowed to receive cash in a trade up until June 30. Their $6.2 million allotment to receive in a trade replenishes starting on July 1.
Joseph, Diallo, Jackson and Garza cannot be traded until the options in their contracts are exercised.
Edwards has a signing restriction and cannot be traded until July 3. His contract is non-guaranteed and does not count as salary in a trade.
Extension-eligible
Grant is the only player on the Pistons roster who is eligible for an extension.
The draft
The Pistons have built their roster through the draft with three starters (Cunningham, Bey and Isaiah Stewart) all selected in the past two years. Entering the offseason, the Pistons are projected to have a top-four selection and will likely add a fourth starter to their current roster. Besides their first, the Pistons have a second from Brooklyn. In the future, Detroit owes Oklahoma City a protected first from 2023 to 2027 and has three seconds.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Detroit selecting in June:
No. 3 (own): Paolo Banchero, PF/C, Duke
Banchero is the most polished of the potential top three picks and a strong candidate to compete for Rookie of the Year pending his potential new team. But for the teams that were already concerned about Banchero's defensive impact -- preferring the two-way play of Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren -- the heartbreaking loss to North Carolina in the Final Four likely didn't help change their mind. -- Schmitz
No. 44 (from BKN): Oscar Tshiebwe, C, Kentucky
Tshiebwe lacks some modern elements to his game, having a difficult time defending in space on the perimeter, scoring outside the paint and facilitating for others, but it's difficult to argue with his productivity and sheer intensity, which should give him a ready-made role early in his NBA career. -- Givony