What does a ligament sprain in two-time MVP Stephen Curry's left foot mean for the Golden State Warriors and the battle for playoff seeding in the Western Conference?
On Friday, the Warriors gave a timetable of two weeks for Curry to be reevaluated for the injury, which occurred during the loss Wednesday to the Boston Celtics.
Although ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Adrian Wojnarowski have reported optimism within the Golden State organization about Curry's ability to return before the start of the playoffs, the Warriors will be down to their final five games of the regular season when Curry is reevaluated.
With Golden State locked into a tight battle for seeding in the West, Curry's absence could determine whether the Warriors have home-court advantage in the second round of the playoffs. Worse yet, a slide could drop the team out of the top three seeds, meaning a possible matchup with the West-leading Phoenix Suns in the conference semifinals instead of putting off that clash until the conference finals.
Let's take a look at the ramifications of Curry's injury.
Battle for second in the West
The frustrating aspect of Curry's absence is that it comes just as the Warriors were working All-Star forward Draymond Green back into the lineup. Wednesday was Green's second game after returning from a disc injury in his back, which itself cropped up just as All-Star guard Klay Thompson returned after nearly 2½ years off the court.
Remarkably, the three core players from all three of Golden State's championships have played just 11 minutes together all season according to NBA Advanced Stats, a total that won't likely increase much before the playoffs.
With Green sidelined, the Warriors went just 17-13 after a 29-9 start, falling behind the Memphis Grizzlies in the West standings. They were surely hoping to gain ground with a full lineup. Instead, Golden State will be short-handed again.
As valuable as Green is to maximizing the Warriors, Curry has been crucial to keeping them competitive. During the six games Curry has missed this season, Golden State has gone 2-4 with a minus-7.3 point differential. It was even worse last year, when the Warriors went 2-7 without Curry with a minus-13 differential.
So long as Golden State can continue playing stout defense with Green healthy, the team will have a chance to grind out wins against lesser competition. But an upcoming five-game road trip includes matchups with both the Grizzlies and the East-leading Miami Heat, and the Warriors return home to take on Phoenix and the Utah Jazz before coasting to the finish line.
Barring some upsets, Golden State could fall insurmountably behind Memphis -- particularly if the Grizzlies win March 28 at home, taking the season series 3-1. (Memphis will surely win the tiebreaker either way as Southwest Division champions; the Warriors don't have a realistic chance of catching the Suns in the Pacific.)
Finishing third would present two challenges for Golden State. It would mean a first-round matchup against one of the West's other top six teams, most likely the Denver Nuggets, and also give the Grizzlies home-court advantage if the teams do end up meeting in the second round.
But the Warriors might fall further than that.
Could Golden State drop to fourth?
If Curry misses longer than the next two weeks or the Warriors drop some games to lottery-bound teams, they'll have to worry about the teams in the rear-view mirror. Both the Jazz and Dallas Mavericks are 3½ games behind Golden State, and three back in the loss column.
Utah might have the better opportunity to move up by virtue of the head-to-head matchup, which could also allow the Jazz to tie the season series 2-2. Again, Utah would surely hold the tiebreaker as the Northwest Division champs. Dallas also holds the tiebreaker, having won three out of four against the Warriors already.
Golden State probably has enough cushion to hang on to a top-three seed. Making up 3½ games over a 12-game stretch is challenging. Projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index have the Warriors finishing with three more wins on average than either the Mavericks, Jazz or Nuggets. FiveThirtyEight's projections are a bit more conservative but still have Golden State two wins ahead on average.
Still, Curry's injury could make the next couple weeks nerve-racking for the Warriors. Although home-court advantage in a series against Memphis might not be a huge concern for Golden State, slipping to fourth would be. A first-round matchup against one of Dallas or Utah would be more difficult and it would put the Warriors in Phoenix's half of the bracket.
With Curry coming back from injury, Golden State probably wants to delay a matchup against the Suns as long as possible. That gives more time for Curry to shake off rust and rebuild chemistry with Green and Thompson. When the Warriors faced Phoenix three times back in December, it was billed as a possible Western Conference finals preview. Golden State wants to make sure it stays that way.