It's Friday, and that means we have 10 more NBA things I like and dislike! This week we highlight the rapid ascension of 19-year-old Warriors rookie Jonathan Kuminga, the return of the Nets' secret weapon and issue a plea for Kyle Lowry and the Miami Heat.
1. Watch Jonathan Kuminga at all times -- and are the Warriors really doing this?
Stephen Curry's foot injury raises the possibility that one of the title favorites may enter the postseason with its presumptive starting five -- Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney -- having played one seven-second pseudo-possession together.
And yet: In the absences of key players, the Warriors have learned unexpected things. One is that Kuminga is way ahead of schedule, and may be ready (to these eyes, is ready) for playoff minutes. Ditto for Moses Moody.
The misguided (for this season) obsession with James Wiseman has focused on Wiseman's verticality and size as an ingredient these Warriors have never had.
Fine. But Wiseman was never going to play a major role this season. Kuminga is providing that ingredient, and then some, right now. He is 19, and somehow built like a tank -- with elite speed, power, and leaping ability. Blink, and he's on top of the rim.
As potent as the Warriors' beautiful game can be, to win four playoff series, they need players who can step outside of that system -- guys with the oomph and straight-line speed to create something from nothing. Kuminga and Jordan Poole bring that kind of jolt.
Kuminga is looking more at ease within that system. He's developing feel for all those snap reads it requires -- cuts, handoffs, flare screens. He's a natural fit playing off great shooters -- rampaging through all the space their gravity creates, and assaulting the tin.
He has the tools to guard anyone; the Warriors have used him on Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum -- stars of all types. Kuminga makes some typical rookie mistakes, but has not looked out of his depth.
At full health, the first three off the Warriors' bench will be Poole, Andre Iguodala, and Otto Porter Jr. That's an eight-man rotation. Some coaches leave it there. Kuminga and Moody have leapfrogged other veterans for that ninth spot -- barring an individual matchup (Ja Morant, Chris Paul) that may require an injection of Gary Payton II. The bet here is Golden State needs both rookies to get where it wants to go.
Kerr suddenly faces a lot of choices. How much will he play the Curry/Poole/Thompson three-guard lineup? The Warriors have been dominant for two seasons when Curry and Poole share the floor. They are plus-96 in 129 minutes (not a typo!) with the Curry/Poole/Thompson trio. Poole is like a knock-off Curry roving around. The Warriors are really hard to guard with all three running and cutting and screening in unpredictable patterns.
Those lineups are small, but the West doesn't feature a contender with two big scoring wings -- at least not until the Clippers get Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back.
Will Golden State close games with those three, plus Wiggins and Green? Could Wiggins sometimes be the odd man out?
I can't wait to see answers.
By the way: I shudder to imagine what Joe Lacob might crow if the Warriors actually pull off the balancing act of winning big now while developing several prospects. If you thought "light years ahead" was braggadocious ...
2. The humongous Boston Celtics defense
Boston has snatched the top spot in points allowed per possession, and it's No. 1 since December by a laughable margin. The Celtics have gotten a bit lucky with icy opponent jump-shooting, but they'd probably still be No. 1 if you averaged that out.
They've allowed the ninth-fewest 3s and second-fewest shots at the rim since the calendar flipped to 2022. They've stopped over-fouling. There are nights when their defense feels impenetrable -- when the opponent loses its will to keep grinding, keep passing, when all they see are arms and Robert Williams III jumping and Marcus Smart screaming at them. Their shoulders sag. Players scrap the game plan and try to go it alone. They wilt.
As I detailed last month, Boston's season turned when coach Ime Udoka gambled on an unconventional adjustment: sticking Williams on wings, having Al Horford defend centers, and switching almost everything. There are ways to puncture that scheme -- none of which have worked all that well -- but the simplest is your best ball handler drawing Horford on switches and attacking. It seems so obvious. Why invite it?
This is why:
Payton Pritchard is the only "small" player left in Boston's rotation, and he's the eighth man. Everyone else is long, smart, and fast. When the Celtics move together, they cover an enormous amount of space. They rarely make mistakes. By the time you've spotted an opening, they've already closed it.
That's one wager baked into their defense: Go waste time trying to roast Horford. We'll shade everyone else that way. Get by him, and we'll close off every pass but the least dangerous. When that's in midair, we'll reset. Enjoy!
I am curious how Boston's shooting holds up. Derrick White is shooting 30% from deep. Marcus Smart is at his usual 33%. Grant Williams has been scorching all season, but he has never shot anything like this in terms of accuracy or volume. Horford is inconsistent.
When it matters, Boston may have to downsize and play Tatum and Brown at the two forward spots -- with only one of Grant Williams, Robert Williams III, and Horford. They should be fine on defense regardless, but holding up on the glass might be more challenging.
3. Kyle Lowry's gonna have to shoot more
This year's award for Random Shot That Got Me Unreasonably Excited goes to this jumper from last weekend:
This pivoting, half-spin fadeaway used to be one of Lowry's trademark shots, back when Lowry showed interest in scoring. Lowry is attempting 10.4 shots per 36 minutes, around the same as Torrey Craig and Ziaire Williams.
Every game features at least three instances of Lowry passing up wide-open 3s. He's driving and getting to the rim at career-low rates. Like, what is this?
Lowry has an open lane, but instead forces a pass to Markieff Morris out of -- I guess? -- fear of noted rim protector Taurean Prince?
This was Morris' first game back from injury; perhaps Lowry went out of his way to reintegrate him.
Such democratic big-picture thinking drives some of this. Lowry is self-assured. His legacy is secure. He knows he can score more when it matters. The last time he overpassed to this degree was in Kawhi Leonard's only season with the Toronto Raptors. Lowry then was so bizarrely unassertive that part of me wondered if he was staging a passive-aggressive protest against Toronto's decision to trade his friend DeMar DeRozan for Leonard.
Turns out, there was a method to Lowry's madness. He was making Leonard comfortable, and steeling Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Serge Ibaka for larger roles. When the Raptors needed Lowry to score, he stepped up.
Perhaps Lowry is repeating this cycle -- deferring to Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro, and overfeeding Miami's army of off-ball shooters and role players. From Day 1, Lowry searched out hit-aheads -- getting teammates moving, gifting them easy buckets.
But to trudge through the beefed-up East, the Heat will need more from Lowry in the half court. Miami will not have the best player in potential series against the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets, or (probably) Celtics. The Heat are banking on collective synergy to overcome any talent deficit at the top. Their half-court offense -- average all season -- is their bellwether.
4. Waiting on DeAndre Hunter and the Hawks' supporting cast
Atlanta's mediocrity feels confounding even though the broadest reason is obvious: Their defense stinks. But even that stinkiness is strange; opponents have been on fire from everywhere all season. How much of that is bad luck?
It seems like Atlanta's supporting cast has underwhelmed, but you look at individual numbers, and they are in line with expectations. It's all weird. At one point, the Hawks lost 10 straight home games! Who does that?
Maybe it's collective stagnation around Young -- other than the rising Onyeka Okongwu. Clint Capela hasn't been the same since dealing with Achilles issues. John Collins is always on the verge of finding his ideal water level, but never quite there.
Hunter has not quite built on his growth last season as a secondary scorer and defensive stopper. His catch-and-go game -- his most important skill on offense other than 3-point shooting -- can be stilted; his total drives have plateaued, and his assist and turnover numbers are heading in the wrong directions, per Second Spectrum. Hunter is dishing just 1.5 dimes per 36 minutes -- startlingly low, even considering Young's ball dominance. Hunter has more turnovers than assists.
He flashed potential last season as an old-school midrange scorer, but he's shooting just 35% on long 2s. The Hawks average an ugly 0.74 directly out of Hunter isolations -- 156th among 175 players with at least 50 isos, per Second Spectrum.
I'd bet on Hunter bouncing back if he can stay healthy -- a recurring issue. (Trading Cam Reddish was in part a bet on Hunter.) He has hit a career-best 39% from deep this season, and he's surging a bit lately.
5. What Spencer Dinwiddie brings Dallas
The fixation on placing a secondary ball handler next to Doncic was never about Doncic ceding huge chunks of the offense. It was a little bit about sustaining when Doncic rests, and giving Doncic an unconventional pick-and-roll screener -- a two-man partnership that would yield size mismatches, and unleash Doncic's post game. (Doncic is posting up more, and it looms as one of his most important postseason tools.)
But it was mostly about this:
Dinwiddie isn't even looking at those open 3s as defenders rush at him -- and that's healthy. He's leaning toward the paint, almost crouched like a sprinter in the starting block, before he catches those passes. When he's that decisive, defenders have zero chance of stopping their momentum and walling off Dinwiddie's drive. From there, it's on Dinwiddie to make the next play.
Dinwiddie is a career 32% shooter on 3s, and it's tempting to say playoff defenses will lay off and dare him to shoot. But he has been a consistent 38%-ish on catch-and-shoot 3s. Leave him open, and Dinwiddie might hurt you. (Ask the Nets.)
Surrounding Doncic with spot-up shooters sounds ideal, and works in the regular season. But if all those shooters are tepid off the bounce, the offense can grow stagnant -- over-reliant on Doncic's wizardry, prone to droughts. The Mavs' shooters are mostly average or decent. They need time, and space, and they are vulnerable to slumps. Switching defenses vaporize the rotations that leave those shooters open.
The Mavs needed attackers, even before Tim Hardaway Jr.'s injury. Dinwiddie gives them another, alongside Doncic and Jalen Brunson. The Mavs have mauled opponents when Dinwiddie and Doncic share the floor, and they are plus-34 in 137 minutes Dinwiddie has played without Doncic. The Doncic-Brunson-Dinwiddie trio is plus-17 in 78 minutes.
The Mavs are imperfect, but they have Doncic, rock-solid defense, and a clearer identity in the wake of the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Watch out.
6. Trendon Watford's float game
The NBA's funniest subplot has been the Portland Trail Blazers hanging in the play-in race despite the organization doing everything short of experimenting with 4-on-5 to boost its lottery odds.
The Blazers have lost eight of nine, with six losses coming by at least 30 points -- and they're still only one game out in the loss column!
Portland has either traded or shut down everyone you know aside from Josh Hart -- playing inspired two-way ball, and a candidate for Most Improved Player -- and two former lottery picks in Justise Winslow and Ben McLemore.
But the Blazers play hard, and even organizations deep in tank mode discover interesting things. Portland has something in Watford. He's providing steady work at power forward, and as a very undersized center.
Watford reads the game, and moves his feet well enough to switch some on defense. He fights on the glass.
He has gorgeous touch on floaters. That is most useful after catching pocket passes:
Watford flicks up this bad boy out of all kinds of actions: face-up drives; coast-to-coast takes, some with Eurosteppy finishes; quarterback keeper-style fake handoffs; and via a bruising post-up game that has proven effective against guards on switches:
Watford has nailed 51% from floater range. He's averaging 17 points over Portland's last seven games.
Watford probably tops out as a solid backup, but that's a nice find; Portland nabbed Watford on a two-way deal after he went undrafted, and then bumped him up to a three-year contract.
7. ALL HAIL HUMONGOTRON
When John Michael, the Cleveland Cavaliers' excellent play-by-play announcer, tells viewers about a replay on the scoreboard, he does not say "scoreboard" or "video board." Not even "Jumbotron" suffices for the Cavs' monument to the bombast and excess of American sports.
The Cavs do not have a "Jumbotron." They have the "Humongotron," and god bless Michael for using its proper name every time. Just say the word out loud. It sounds perfectly ridiculous -- like a Decepticon. Can you imagine going to a game with your significant other and actually saying to this normal person, Hey! We're on the Humongotron! What if I proposed to you on the Humongotron?
When the Cavs introduced their new video board in 2014, they boasted it was the largest in any U.S. arena. They christened it Humongotron, and gave it its own (now dormant) Twitter account -- as if Humongotron was a sentient being. HUMONGOTRON ANGRY! YOU BLEW A 3-1 LEAD! HUMONGOTRON MOCKS YOU!
If you call something the world's one and only Humongotron -- if Jumbotron does not do justice to your hubristic ambitions -- you should lean all the way in. Bravo, Cavs.
8. Brooklyn's unsung hero is back
Bruce Brown's last 15 games: 13.7 points on 52% shooting, 5.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.6 steals. He's back to shooting 3s at a reasonable rate: 2.3 per 36 minutes over those 15 games, up from 1.3 before. If Brown's going to play, he has to shoot open corner 3s.
Brown's patented floater has perked up, and he's as rugged as ever on defense. Brown is tough and switchable, but he also does a lot of subtle high-IQ things:
That is such a cagey little play. The Bucks likely expected Brooklyn to switch here. The Nets opted against it, preferring to keep Brown on Khris Middleton -- leaving Seth Curry on Jrue Holiday. (Side note: I love when Milwaukee puts Holiday and Middleton together in two-man actions.)
That approach risks giving Holiday an easy path to the rim. The Nets confuse Milwaukee by almost faking the switch. Brown half-lunges toward Holiday while keeping one hand on Middelton for leverage. Holiday pauses, buying Curry time to recover.
Brown's place on a Brooklyn team with Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and Ben Simmons is murky. Simmons is a non-shooter. Is coach Steve Nash willing to play heavy minutes with a second non-shooter, whether it's Brown, Andre Drummond, Nicolas Claxton, or James Johnson? That would fortify Brooklyn's defense, at the cost of spacing. The all-shooting lineups -- featuring two of Seth Curry, Goran Dragic, and Patty Mills alongside Brooklyn's Big Three -- would be teensy.
Options that might split the difference are either injured (Joe Harris) or rookies (Cam Thomas, Kessler Edwards.) Nash seems to lean all-shooting, but the Nets are plus-5 per 100 possessions in 244 minutes with the Brown-Drummond combo. If any star perimeter duo can thrive in tight confines, it's the Durant-Irving supernova.
The Nets will need Brown to make a long playoff run.
9. Someone rescue Richaun Holmes
Does Holmes head home after playing 9 minutes as Domantas Sabonis' backup and watch YouTube videos of Tyrese Haliburton tossing him lobs -- or slipping Holmes pocket passes for his patented push shot?
Holmes might be the good player on a long-term contract most likely to be traded this summer. He may not be a heavy-minutes starter on a great team, but he's overqualified for his new role scrounging Sabonis' leftovers. (The Kings have dabbled in playing them together, but that's not an answer.)
Holmes is an elite backup who can start for lots of good teams. He's a legitimate scoring threat on offense. Give him a good point guard and tidy spacing, and he can sky for alley-oops. His funky push shot is not just a cool quirk. Holmes has hit almost 60% from floater range over the last two seasons, per Cleaning The Glass.
He's a hoppy shot-blocker, but just so-so defending in open space and too small to jostle with behemoth centers. He's due $36 million over the next three seasons -- pricey for a backup, but fair-ish for a core reserve who might start half your games. Value is in the eye of the beholder; I'm not sure the Kings should expect great return when they trade Holmes.
Holmes is good, and fun, and I'd like to see him play more somewhere.
10. When a pass fake turns someone all the way around
Deployed correctly, a pass fake can bust entire defenses. The typical pass fake comes amid an around-the-horn sequence, with the defense in rotation.
But that's not the most entertaining pass fake genre. This is:
That's mean. That is some old-school, pratfall-level physical comedy: At a stand-still, one vicious, two-handed fake from Brandon Ingram gets Jae'Sean Tate to turn all the way around. For a brief, glorious moment, Tate is looking toward the basket -- unaware Ingram is still holding the ball. This is as much prank as basketball move.
I thought back to Boban Marjanovic coaxing two rapid-fire head-turns from Jahlil Okafor:
(Ignore the blatant traveling.)
A total pass-fake sell job is worth as much wide-eyed, jaw-agape hype as a snatch-back dribble that puts a defender on his butt.