The race for the NBA scoring title is one of the tightest in NBA history, featuring three of the game's biggest names battling for the top spot. Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid currently owns a fractional edge over Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James and Milwaukee Bucks big man Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the margin is so small the leaderboard can change on any given night -- as it did Wednesday when Antetokounmpo led the trio with 36 points, moving ahead of James (19) for second, just behind Embiid, who had 35.
Through Wednesday night's games, Embiid (29.9), Antetokounmpo (29.8) and James (29.5) are all averaging just shy of 30 points per game, with a mere 0.4 points separating the trio. That would break the record for closest three-man scoring chase, which happened in 1985-86 when Dominique Wilkins, Adrian Dantley and Alex English finished the season separated by 0.5 points per game. And with all due respect to that trio of Hall of Famers, the top of the leaderboard this year features bigger stars fighting for more than just scoring titles.
If Embiid wins, he will be the first center to do so in more than two decades. If Antetokounmpo wins, he would join Michael Jordan as the only players to win MVP, Finals MVP, DPOY and a scoring title. And for both of them, a scoring title would bolster their case to be named this year's MVP over the other one (and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic -- and the ever-growing cast of stars with a reasonable MVP case this season).
Then there's James. The Lakers' dreadful record has excluded him from the MVP conversation, but he still could become the oldest scoring champion in NBA history -- and it's easy to make the case that James will accomplish that.
Unlike Embiid and Antetokounmpo, James has already won a scoring title -- but that was a long time ago. James was 23 when he led the NBA by averaging 30.0 PPG in 2007-08, long before either Embiid or Antetokounmpo was in the NBA. He's now 37. Winning this scoring title would give James a silver lining in this disappointing season that has the Lakers headed toward the play-in round. It would also make James both the oldest NBA scoring champ ever and the first player to win scoring titles 14 years apart.
A big scoring push would also accelerate James' chase to surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the NBA's all-time leading scorer at some point next season (he's 1,514 points shy of Abdul-Jabbar entering Thursday, and will likely pass Karl Malone for second place within a week). As James approaches that incredible milestone, he remains one of the most unstoppable interior scorers in the league. But late in his career he's finally developed a reliable 3-point shot. He's both taking and making more 3s than ever in his 18th season in the NBA.
He is attempting 8.0 3-pointers this season (his previous career high was 6.3, done in both each of the past two seasons), and he has connected on 2.8 3-pointers per game, bettering the career high he set last season by half a 3 per game.
Those 3-point numbers are nice, but he still does the bulk of his damage close to the rim, where he averages 13.8 points per game in the paint. His unprecedented blend of size, strength, speed and feel for the game enables him to muscle his way to buckets, and with Anthony Davis sidelined and Russell Westbrook slumping, James' drives to the rim are clearly the Lakers best offensive weapon right now.
Speaking of Davis and Westbrook, James also has a weaker supporting cast than either Embiid or Antetokounmpo, which will factor into the scoring race in the season's final month. While Embiid and Antetokounmpo are winning games and racing toward a top-3 seed, they are doing so in part because their teammates can score the ball, too. Khris Middleton is averaging 20.5 PPG with Milwaukee. Embiid's new teammate, James Harden has won three of the past four scoring titles, and is averaging 22,7 PPG since joining the 76ers.
The Lakers, on the other hand, don't have another healthy player averaging better than 18.0 PPG, and are winless since the All-Star break when James fails to score 50 points. They're leaning more heavily on him as they fight just to stay alive in the play-in race. Los Angeles needs everything it can get from James as they try to extend their season (even if only by a single play-in game). James is logging more minutes and more shot attempts than both Embiid and Antetokounmpo. He's played more than 40 minutes in two of his past four games, and it would've been three of five had the Lakers not been blown out by the Timberwolves Wednesday night (James played 37 minutes before checking out for good with 3:29 left in the fourth quarter).
In the 41 games he played in before the All-Star break, James scored more than 40 points just once, when he put up 43 against the Portland Trail Blazers on New Year's Eve. In the 10 games he's played since the break, he's scored 50 twice, becoming the first player in NBA history to record multiple 50-point games after turning 35.
Last week, James mentioned on "The Shop" that he felt disrespected that he'd never been discussed as a great scorer, and it is starting to feel like he's going to use this lost season as a way to change that.
Still, the competition for James will be stiff, as both Embiid and Antetokounmpo are putting up historic performances as well.
Embiid is trying to become the first center since Shaquille O'Neal in 2000 to win the scoring title, and he's doing so with a punishing, old-school formula that has seen him increase his scoring average to 32 PPG in the games played since Harden came over at the trade deadline.
In a league that has gotten smaller in the front court, Embiid has become unguardable in part because he's so massive and so skilled that today's low post defenders have no chance to stop him without fouling him. By shooting nearly a dozen free throws per game, Philadelphia's MVP candidate is going to the free throw line more often than any player since O'Neal in 2000-01. However, unlike O'Neal, Embiid isn't being sent to the foul line on purpose. He's a 82% free throw shooter, so intentionally fouling him to prevent him from scoring is a bad idea -- and serves as further proof that he's unstoppable right now.
Embiid thrives on the left block. He can shoot over either shoulder in the midrange, and can overpower almost every big in the league in the paint. He ranks second in the league in post ups, trailing only Jokic, but opponents are fouling Embiid on 16% of his post-up plays -- twice as frequently as they're fouling Jokic, and as we approach the finish line in the scoring race, Embiid is ramping up his free throw production.
Since the break, Embiid is averaging a ridiculous 14.8 free throws per game. But will Doc Rivers really push Embiid's minutes down the stretch when the Sixers have to ensure he's fully healthy for the playoff run? Embiid's unfortunate injury history could become a key factor as the postseason approaches, and his availability for those games becomes paramount.
Antetokounmpo is already averaging a mere 32.9 minutes per game, ranking just 48th in the NBA. Yet he's still averaging nearly 30 points per game, just behind Embiid in the scoring race. Given the track record of his rotations, it's impossible to see a world where Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer increases his playing time to allow Antetokounmpo to chase a regular season accolade, especially when the organization is preparing to defend its title in the 2022 playoffs.
This is why the trends favor James in this race. Coming into this season, the fewest minutes per game played by a scoring champ in the shot-clock era is 34.2 by Stephen Curry in 2015-16 and 2020-21. Both Antetokounmpo and Embiid are on pace to come in under that mark, while James' playing time continues to ramp up in Los Angeles.
Since the break, James is averaging more playing time, more shot attempts, and more points per game than both Embiid and Antetokounmpo, both of whom are on teams that have title aspirations. Meanwhile, the Lakers will continue to lean heavily on James to just make the play-in tournament, meaning the scoring crown might be the only title within reach for both King James and the Lakers this season.