How will Michael Porter Jr.'s back surgery affect the Denver Nuggets' chances of making the playoffs?
After winning a combined three series in the last two postseasons, the Nuggets find themselves 10th in the Western Conference, largely because of injuries to both Porter and starting point guard Jamal Murray.
With Porter headed for a third surgery on his troublesome back, as reported Monday by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, Denver has to prepare for the possibility of an extended absence. Already, the Nuggets were likely to play the bulk of the regular season without Murray, who suffered an ACL tear in April.
Denver still has the reigning MVP in center Nikola Jokic, who's played at an even higher level this season when he's been on the court. (Jokic has missed the last four games, all Nuggets losses, with a wrist sprain.) With other West teams scuffling early in the season, a healthy Jokic may be enough to ensure Denver avoids the play-in tournament. But that's no longer a certainty.
Let's take a look at what Porter's surgery means for him and the Nuggets.
Denver's depth gets tested ... again
Because of Jokic's singular skill set, figuring out how to handle minutes with the MVP on the bench has always been a challenge for Nuggets coach Michael Malone. Last season, Malone attempted to keep the offense afloat by staggering Jokic's minutes, first with Murray, then with Porter after Murray was lost to the ACL tear.
Porter-only lineups were actually shockingly effective in 2020-21, outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per 100 possessions in 225 minutes according to NBA Advanced Stats. Porter's emergence -- he averaged 23.5 PPG the remainder of the season, shooting 56% from the field and 49% from 3-point range -- was a big reason Denver went 13-5 after Murray's injury and beat the Portland Trail Blazers in the opening round of the playoffs.
Even before the Nuggets shut him down after nine games because of lower back pain, Porter wasn't the same player. He averaged just 9.9 PPG over that span, topping out at 15 points and shooting a frigid 36% from the field and 21% on 3s. Porter-only lineups still had a slightly positive point differential (plus-4 in 46 minutes), but his injury has made finding enough scoring with Jokic on the bench much more challenging for Denver. Overall, the Nuggets have been outscored by 14.3 points per 100 possessions without Jokic.
Don't expect Murray to return any time soon. No NBA player with a full ACL tear has returned sooner than 11 months after the injury since J.J. Hickson in 2014, meaning Murray's comeback is unlikely to happen until the final month of the regular season. Until then, Denver will have to find a way to survive Jokic's rest periods.
Beyond that issue, the Nuggets are running low on healthy perimeter players. In addition to Murray and Porter, P.J. Dozier is also sidelined with a long-term injury after suffering an ACL tear on Nov. 23 in Portland. Dozier had been one of Denver's replacements for Porter, averaging 21.4 MPG after Porter was ruled out of the lineup.
On Friday, Malone turned to third-year forward Vlatko Cancar, who delivered 10 points and four assists in 15 minutes after scoring double-figures just twice in 56 games over the previous two-plus seasons.
If the Nuggets want to add a player, potentially using the $2.6 million disabled player exception they'd receive if an independent doctor rules Porter substantially more likely than not to be sidelined through mid-June, they'll have to clear a roster spot. Trading Dozier, who is in the final season of his contract, would not only open up a spot but also give Denver more flexibility under the luxury tax. Currently, the Nuggets are just $1.9 million below the tax line based on likely bonuses.
Denver is still strong with Jokic
Whether the Nuggets can climb above the play-in race in the West will depend primarily on Jokic's health. Denver is 8-5 this season when Jokic finishes games, with Jokic also leaving a loss to the Utah Jazz at halftime with a knee contusion. (The Nuggets beat the Indiana Pacers without Jokic when he was suspended for one game for his flagrant foul on Markieff Morris.)
Although Jokic's healthy games have disproportionately come against weaker opposition, Denver has still performed at an above-average level with him in the lineup. The other good news for the Nuggets is that the competition in the West doesn't look particularly strong this season. At 9-10, Denver is still just a half-game out of the sixth and final guaranteed playoff spot, currently held by the 11-11 Los Angeles Lakers.
Additionally, several of the teams ahead of the Nuggets in the standings have outperformed their point differential in terms of wins and losses thus far. Based on point differential, the Nuggets move up to seventh in the West, ahead of the Lakers, the 10-8 Dallas Mavericks and the 10-10 Memphis Grizzlies.
Denver still should be in good shape to make the playoffs -- provided Jokic doesn't miss an extended stretch because of injury.
The long-term impact for Porter and the Nuggets
Porter's health going forward is at least as big a concern for the Nuggets as his absence this season. Because of concerns about Porter's back, Denver was able to get an elite talent with the 14th pick of the 2018 draft. Given that the player taken immediately in front of him (Jerome Robinson) and one taken two spots later (Zhaire Smith) are already out of the NBA, that gamble paid off for the Nuggets.
Still, the timing of Porter's latest surgery looks like a worst-case scenario for Denver. In the wake of Porter's strong finish to 2020-21, the Nuggets signed him to a five-year, maximum contract extension last summer with only limited concession to Porter's injury risk.
The first four years of Porter's extension are fully guaranteed, along with $12 million of his projected $39.3 million salary in the final year of the contract, per ESPN's Bobby Marks. (That number can increase based on Porter's accomplishments over the next four years.) From Porter's standpoint, he's thankfully protected financially if his career trajectory is thrown off by back surgery. Denver, by contrast, wouldn't get a break until 2026-27.
In many ways, the situation parallels that of Porter's coach at Nathan Hale High School in Seattle, Brandon Roy. The condition of Roy's knees deteriorated after he signed a max extension with the Portland Trail Blazers in 2009. Two years later, after the NBA's lockout concluded, the Blazers used the amnesty provision of the new collective bargaining agreement to waive Roy with four years remaining on his extension. Roy returned briefly in 2012-13 with the Minnesota Timberwolves before retiring.
From a medical standpoint, the two cases are unrelated. Roy's knees were in a degenerative condition that couldn't be reversed. Porter and the Nuggets will have to hope that surgery can alleviate his back issues and allow him to get back to being the promising player we saw last season.