- Close
ESPN Senior Writer- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
Defense is typically the most difficult part of the adjustment for NBA rookies. This year's group of newcomers looks like an exception.
As Mike Schmitz explained in Tuesday's rankings of the top 10 rookies so far in the 2021-22 campaign, several are excelling at the defensive end of the court -- starting with leading Rookie of the Year contender Evan Mobley from the Cleveland Cavaliers but also including versatile No. 4 overall pick Scottie Barnes of the Toronto Raptors and the Sacramento Kings' lockdown perimeter defender Davion Mitchell.
Mobley has managed to stand out with both his rim protection and ability to defend smaller opponents on the perimeter. Barnes, at 6-foot-7, has been asked to guard lead ball handlers and centers. And Mitchell's "Off Night" nickname -- as in what his opponents experience -- has carried over from his team's national championship run at Baylor.
We've teamed up Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton to explore just how much rookies are typically behind the curve defensively and how the changing trends in the NBA and amateur levels have helped change that for a handful of players this season.
Rookies typically struggle on defense
How rare is it for NBA rookies to come into the league ready to defend? Consider that since 2009-10, the first year with luck-adjusted RAPM data on NBAshotcharts.com, there have been just 50 rookies who have played at least 2,000 minutes the year after being drafted. (The last filter separates international veterans from true rookies like this season's group.)
On average, those rookies rated nearly league average in terms of their impact on their team's offensive performance, adjusted for teammates, opponents and shooting randomness. On defense, the average high-minutes rookie rated 0.5 points per 100 possessions worse than league average.
More players from this group rated at least 1 point per 100 possessions worse than average (putting them in the bottom 15% of all high-minutes players over this period) than posted above-average defensive ratings.
It's still too early in the season for RAPM ratings for this year's rookies. Nonetheless, there's reason to believe they might rate well in terms of their defensive impact. -- Pelton
Quantifying top rookie defenders
So far, Mobley looks like the top rookie defender. Remarkably, he is 12th in the defensive component of FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player rating, making him a legitimate All-Defensive candidate as a rookie if he keeps it up. The sample size (506 minutes) is modest, but only one rookie has rated better defensively in RAPTOR during the tracking data era (since 2013-14): Joel Embiid, who didn't make his NBA debut until 2016-17, his third season after being drafted.
Mobley has been stout protecting the rim. Opponents are making 52% of their attempts within five feet when Mobley is the primary defender, putting him 13th in the NBA among players who have defended at least 50 attempts, according to Second Spectrum tracking data on NBA Advanced Stats. He also has been effective in switching pick-and-rolls. Opponents are averaging .79 points per chance on plays where Mobley switches, putting him in the top third of the league, per Second Spectrum.
It's an amusing testament to Barnes' versatility that two of his four most common defensive assignments this season, according to Second Spectrum tracking, are fellow top-four picks Mobley and Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons. Depending on whether Toronto has a traditional center on the court, coach Nick Nurse has asked Barnes to defend everyone from James Harden to Jusuf Nurkic.
Based on my analysis of Second Spectrum matchup data, Barnes has defended players at no single position more than 29% of the time (PFs) and none less than 14% of the time (SGs). Just two other players with at least 250 minutes -- Nicolas Batum and Harden -- have more balanced distributions of the opposing positions they've defended.
Admittedly, I was a bit skeptical of Mitchell's defensive rep because we've seen other ball-hawking defenders have limited impact at the team level. Avery Bradley is the ultimate example of a player other guards hate facing whose individual defense doesn't seem to translate. Bradley's luck-adjusted defensive RAPM is a modest 0.3 points per 100 possessions throughout his career.
Early on, that doesn't seem to be the case with Mitchell. The Kings allow an impressive 10 points per 100 possessions fewer with Mitchell on the court, per NBA Advanced Stats. Although Mitchell has benefited from poor opponent shot-making on 3s, the deeper indicators are positive. Sacramento forces turnovers far more frequently when Mitchell plays, and opponent shot quality has decreased about two percentage points, according to Second Spectrum's quantified shot quality (qSQ) measure.
The question now is simply whether Mitchell's offense can catch up enough, as it did in college, to keep him on the court for his defensive prowess to shine. -- Pelton
Rookies benefiting from amateur experience
The collective experience within this class has played a big role in its defensive success. Mitchell, for instance, entered the NBA with over 2,500 collegiate minutes, in addition to a full year of practice against Jared Butler during his redshirt year. He was tasked with defending everyone from Cunningham to Jalen Suggs to Austin Reaves at the collegiate level.
The same goes for one of this class's most versatile defenders, Herbert Jones of the New Orleans Pelicans, who snuck in at No. 10 on my Rookie Power Rankings. The SEC defensive player of the year and a four-year starter at Alabama, Jones was regularly asked to defend all five positions on the floor over the course of a game, which clearly helped him develop the technique, instincts, motor and physical toughness necessary to slow down elite NBA perimeter scorers like Paul George as a rookie. Although the Pels have struggled, it's no fault of Jones' defensive chops, as New Orleans is allowing 12.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when the rangy 6-foot-7 wing is on the floor.
Even a handful of the 20-and-under rookies entered the NBA with more experience than your typical teenager-turned-pro. In addition to his 55 games at Michigan, Franz Wagner's 59 German BBL and EuroCup bouts at 16 and 17 years old laid the foundation for his defensive toughness and fundamentals displayed with the Orlando Magic. Barnes had been to basically every USA Basketball Camp since he was 15 years old, winning three gold medals across 18 FIBA games, while also serving as a key cog in arguably the best high school basketball team we've ever seen alongside Cunningham and Moses Moody at Florida's Montverde Academy.
Being in the USA Basketball system at such a young age plays a huge role in building winning habits, and that was certainly the case with Barnes. The same could be said for a rookie like Jeremiah Robinson-Earl of the Oklahoma City Thunder, whose two years under Villanova's Jay Wright combined with his 13 USA Basketball games and experience at a program like Florida's IMG Academy surely helped him.
While Mobley didn't play for a basketball powerhouse like Montverde, he benefits from being a younger brother (to Isaiah Mobley, an NBA prospect still at Southern California) and the son of a coach, and he was in the USAB system starting in 2018.
"As I was growing up, I played against older people a lot, which forced me to move as a guard and all that," said Mobley, who is as advanced of a pick-and-roll drop defender as I've ever seen from a rookie. "As I grew, I feel like I kept that footwork. I feel like that helps me on defense."
Then you have Orlando's Suggs, whose defensive potential and toughness is a product of year after year playing a more refined role in FIBA tournaments alongside players like Cunningham, Mobley and Barnes. Even take a second-year player like Deni Avdija of the Washington Wizards, who has developed into a valuable wing defender in large part due to his experience playing in pressure-packed Maccabi Tel Aviv EuroLeague games under a defensive-minded head coach.
Simply put, from the upperclassmen all the way down to the one-and-dones, this rookie class entered the NBA with considerable experience playing in important games against and alongside other elite players, which created defensive accountability and has served as the foundation for the defensive success we're seeing now.
On the flip side, several of the first-round picks who haven't been able to crack the rotation didn't have those defensive building blocks, including James Bouknight of the Charlotte Hornets, who was a bit of a late riser in the recruiting rankings after missing considerable time in high school due to injury.
So, as NBA scouts continue evaluating future classes, it's important they consider the value of players who either came up through national team programs or played in competitive high school games, because this class is proof that it's translating to NBA success. Whether it's Mitchell, Barnes or Mobley, this loaded group of rookies is making defense cool again, which should have a positive impact on the next generation. -- Schmitz
Mike Schmitz is an NBA Draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and International teams.