With just two weeks until the start of the 2021-2022 season, let's break down the NBA's biggest potential bonuses players could earn this season. In total, there are 43 players, each with incentives, including 14 newcomers.
Once again, the media will have its say with All-NBA, All-Star and postseason honors, votes that could change the landscape for players such as the Chicago Bulls' Zach LaVine, the Phoenix Suns' Devin Booker and the Minnesota Timberwolves' Karl-Anthony Towns.
Here's a look at the bonuses to monitor this season, starting with players who could be eligible for a supermax contract next offseason.
The supermax
The Denver Nuggets' Nikola Jokic has little to worry about.
By earning MVP honors last season, Jokic has qualified for a supermax extension, which would be the largest in NBA history at $254 million. However, because Jokic has only six years of service, the 26-year-old center has to wait until the 2022 offseason to sign the five-year extension. The rules of the supermax stipulate only players with seven or eight years of service are eligible to sign the extension.
Because Jokic was named MVP, he is eligible to sign the supermax in 2022, when he'll have one year left on his existing deal, or in 2023, when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
LaVine, Booker and Towns are not quite as fortunate as Jokic.
While their situations differ slightly -- Booker and Towns are not free agents in 2022, while LaVine is -- all three are supermax eligible, in either an extension or regular contract, if they earn All-NBA honors this season (or win MVP).
The rookie extension class
Three players -- the Atlanta Hawks' Trae Young, the Oklahoma City Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Denver Nuggets' Michael Porter Jr. -- have a clause in their contracts that will see their compensation increase from 25% of the cap in 2022-23 to 30% if they are each named All-NBA (first, second or third team). The 5% increase is worth an additional $34.5 million over the life of the contract for each player.
The Dallas Mavericks' Luka Doncic was named All-NBA in back-to-back seasons and has already met the 30% criteria, banking the young star $207M over the life of his extension.
It won't be easy for Young and Gilgeous-Alexander, who would have to beat out a deep pool of guards that comprises Stephen Curry, Doncic, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Booker and LaVine.
Young earned two third-team All-NBA votes last season, while Gilgeous-Alexander, who missed the season's final 29 games, received none.
In Porter's case, Mark Bartelstein, who represents the young Nuggets star, inserted creative language in the last year of his rookie max extension.
Porter has $12 million guaranteed for 2026-27, but that salary can increase to the full amount of $39.3 million if certain player or team achievements are reached over the length of the contract.
Selected to the All-Star Game -- twice
MVP
Defensive Player of the Year
All-NBA (first, second or third team)
All-Defensive (first or second team)
Denver winning the NBA championship and Porter playing in 62 or more games and 75% of postseason games
That means if Porter is selected All-NBA in 2021-22, the $39.3 million salary in the last season of his contract will become guaranteed and the forward will also earn an additional $35 million (30% of the salary cap starting in 2022-23).
Porter will also have his protection increase from $12 to $17 million if he is selected to the All-Star Game in the next five seasons.
The newcomers
On top of his $18.6 million salary this year with the Bulls, Ball has nine sets of incentives in his contract valued anywhere from $100K for $200K, and could earn a total of $1 million.
If he hits that capped incentive number, Ball would jump into the top 15 of point guard salaries this season, eclipsing the Raptors' Goran Dragic ($19.4M) (No. 1 is, of course, Stephen Curry, who is set to earn $45.6M).
Each of the nine bonuses are first tied into Ball playing 62 or more games this season, a mark he has met once in four seasons.
The second hurdle is based on individual success (All-Defense, All-NBA, All-Star) and team success (wins and reaching at a minimum the second round of the playoffs).
Here are the nine incentives:
All-Defensive 1st Team or All-Defensive 2nd Team
All-NBA 1st Team or All-NBA 2nd Team or All-NBA 3rd Team
All-Star participant
% of team's games played (postseason) >= 80 and team reaches conference finals
% of team's games played (postseason) >= 80 and team reaches NBA Finals
% of team's games played (postseason) >= 80 and team reaches the second round of the playoffs
Number of wins (regular season) > 48
Number of wins (regular season) > 54
Chicago finishes the regular season as one of the top four seeds in the East
Despite an offseason that saw Chicago acquire DeMar DeRozan and Ball, the Bulls are projected to win 40 games according to ESPN's latest win-loss projections.
The last time Chicago reached the second round and won at least 48 games was in 2015.
Dinwiddie and his agent Jason Glushon had fun with the bonus structure in the three-year, $54 million contract he signed with the Washington Wizards (via a sign-and-trade with Brooklyn).
Dinwiddie has five sets of bonuses that could earn him as much as $1.5M ... and as little as $1.
Yes, that is correct.
If the Wizards win the NBA championship, he will earn a single George Washington.
While it is unlikely the Wizards win it all this season (they're projected to win 36 games and miss the playoffs), Dinwiddie could receive an additional $1.5 million if he plays in 50 games or more.
More important, though, is that if Dinwiddie plays in more than 50 games this season and in 2022-23, his $18.9 million salary in 2023-24 will become fully guaranteed. He currently has $10 million in protection.
Before tearing his right ACL last December, Dinwiddie had played in 50 or more games in each of the previous four seasons.
If there was an award for contract creativity, the Rockets would win it for how they structured Exum's contract.
When the Rockets signed Exum to a three-year, $8.1 million non-guaranteed contract, they included $2.5 million in likely bonuses for the 2021-22 season.
Because the bonuses are considered likely, the Rockets are not restricted to the amount of bonuses that can be included in the contract. A player who has unlikely bonuses in his contract is limited to 15% of his salary for that season.
The likely bonuses for Exum are:
Minutes played per game (regular season) > 15.8
Minutes played per game (regular season) > 15.8 and net rating (regular season) >= 2.7
And if Exum is on the roster past the Jan. 7 cut date, the Rockets can use his $2.5 million in base salary and $2.5 million of likely bonuses in a trade.
Here's how Houston could take advantage: The Rockets could trade Exum and acquire back a player earning $8.75 million in salary. Because only $2.5 million of the Exum contract is guaranteed -- and not the $2.5 million in bonuses -- the receiving team would gain over $6 million of savings. The Rockets in turn could ask for draft assets as a tradeoff for the salary savings.
If Exum continues to struggle with injuries (he has played just 97 games in the past four seasons), the Rockets can cut him at the end of the season without financial burden.
Evan Fournier and Nerlens Noel
Starting with Julius Randle's contract in 2019, there has been a trend with the New York Knicks when it comes to incentives.
Randle's contract at the time had $1.8 million in unlikely bonuses that were eventually achieved after he was named All-NBA and the Knicks reached the first round of the playoffs last season.
This past offseason, the Knicks' front office included unlikely bonuses in Evan Fournier's and Nerlens Noel's contracts.
Fournier has $1.5 million in unlikely bonuses that range from being named All-NBA first team ($1 million) to the Knicks reaching the second round of the playoffs ($150K).
Noel has $2.75 million of unlikely bonuses, but because bonuses are capped at 15% of his $8.8 million salary, the most he could earn this season is $1.3 million.
For example, if Noel is named NBA Defensive Player of the Year ($1 million) and the Knicks win the championship ($750K), the most he could receive would be $1.3 million.
Noel also has a $750K bonus if he is named All-Defensive first or second team and $250K if the Knicks reach the NBA Finals.
Luxury tax implications
The Nets already have a $117 million tax penalty and could see that number increase because of the incentives in the Joe Harris and Kyrie Irving contracts.
The tax penalty already factors in the $1 million likely bonus that Kevin Durant will receive if he is named to the All-Star team or Brooklyn advances to the first round of the playoffs.
Harris will earn $500K if the Nets win the NBA championship and the guard plays in 65 regular-season games and 75% of postseason games.
Irving has a complex set of eight different bonuses that range from personal fouls per game, offensive and defensive ratings, games played and turnovers per game.
Defensive rating (regular season) < 106 ($137,500)
Offensive rating (regular season) > 114
Per game personal foul (regular season) < 2.1 ($137,500)
Per game 3-pointers made (regular season) > 2.8
Total free throw percentage (regular season) > 88.5
Total games played (regular season) >= 60 and per game free throws attempted (regular season) > 4.6 ($137,500)
Total games played (regular season) >= 60 and per game turnovers (regular season) < 2.4 ($137,500)
Total games played (regular season) >= 70 ($137,500)
Last season, Irving reached three of the bonuses, totaling $137,500 (offensive rating, 3-pointers made and free throw percentage).
The Celtics are $6.8 million over the tax threshold, but $2.1 million of that consists in likely bonuses for Jaylen Brown and Juancho Hernangomez.
Despite a left wrist injury that cut his season short, Brown earned two bonuses last season -- for 65 games played ($446K) and for being selected to the All-Star team ($1.3 million).
Brown also has five additional bonuses, including earning All-NBA honors and how far the Celtics go in the postseason (second round, conference finals, NBA Finals and winning the NBA championship).
Because Brown's salary for 2021-22 is $24.8 million, he is capped at earning no more than $2.9 million in incentives.
So if the Celtics win the NBA championship ($1.9 million) and he is named All-NBA (1.9 million), the maximum he could earn is $2.9 million.
Hernangomez's $300K in likely bonuses could be in jeopardy because of a lack of playing time.
The forward has three sets of bonuses worth $105K, including one for minutes played (1,000).
The Nuggets have been consistent with how they structure incentives.
Instead of relying on statistics or postseason honors, the contracts of Will Barton, Jeff Green, JaMychal Green, Facundo Campazzo and Nikola Jokic include incentives based on how far the Nuggets advance in the playoffs.
In other words, the Nuggets could have a good problem on their hands in July 2022.
Because they are only $1.8 million below the luxury tax, Denver would become a tax-paying team if they were to win the NBA championship and each player meets the games-played criteria in their contracts.
Aaron Gordon could earn up to $1 million if he is selected to two out of three teams -- All-Star, All-NBA and All-Defensive (first or second).
The Pacers have not paid the tax since 2005-06 and face quite a balancing act to continue to avoid it.
Indiana is $514K below the threshold and has four players, T.J. McConnell, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, who all have incentives in their contracts.
The Pacers' room below the tax does factor in the $1.3 million All-Star bonus for Sabonis. The forward would receive an additional $1.3 million if he is named All-NBA.
Last year, Sabonis received six third-place votes at center.
Turner led the league last season in blocks and has a $1 million bonus if he is named All-Defensive first or second team.
Turner received the most All-Defensive votes (24) among forwards who were not selected first or second-team last season.
Warren continues to rehab from a right foot injury, and it is unlikely he will reach the six bonuses he has in his contract, including one for attempting more than 185 3-pointers in a season and shooting 37%. In 2019-20, the forward reached that incentive and earned $250K.
McConnell has a $250K bonus coming to him if the Pacers reach the NBA Finals and an additional $250K for winning the NBA championship.
The Bucks incurred a small financial hit for winning the championship last season.
Because guard Jrue Holiday had a $1 million bonus set up for winning the title, Milwaukee paid the luxury tax for the first time since 2003-2004.
Holiday also earned an additional $900K for minutes played, hitting his rebounds-per-game threshold (greater than 3.15), making the All-Defensive second team and reaching the conference finals.
Including the five bonuses that are considered likely, Holiday has 14 total bonuses in his contract, including ones for winning NBA Defensive Player of the Year honors and getting selected to the All-Star Game.
The $1.9 million in likely bonuses is included in Holiday's $32.4 million salary for this season.
The Bucks are $22 million over the luxury tax and projected to pay a $54 million penalty.
The Timberwolves will certainly keep an eye on forward Taurean Prince's stat sheet this season.
Minnesota is $920K below the luxury tax, and Prince has $1.8 million of unlikely bonuses.
A significant portion of those bonuses ($1 million) is broken into three sets of statistical benchmarks:
Games played (regular season) >= 65 and defensive rating (regular season) <= 105
Games played (regular season) >= 65 and turnovers per 36 minutes (regular season) <= 2
Games played (regular season) >= 65 and 3-point percentage (regular season) >= 41.5% and 3-pointers attempted per 36 minutes (regular season) >= 7.3
In addition, Jarred Vanderbilt and Jordan McLaughlin also have games-played bonuses in their new contracts.
Additional tax implications
The Portland Trail Blazers are $1.3 million over the luxury tax. If Jusuf Nurkic plays in 70 games or more and the Blazers win 50 games, he will receive a $1.25 million bonus. That incentive would cost Portland an additional $1.9 million toward its tax bill.
Mike Conley has $1.5 million in bonuses in his contract if the Utah Jazz reach the NBA Finals and win the championship ($750K each). If both are met, Utah would owe an additional $5 million in tax penalties. Joe Ingles also has a $600K bonus if his defensive rating is below 101.5.
More bonus tidbits
Boston's Robert Williams III has $1.4 million of unlikely bonuses in his rookie extension. However, because the contract does not start until 2022-23, Williams would not be compensated in additional salary this season if any of the five sets of bonuses are met. The contract would get adjusted next season to include any of the bonuses that are achieved. For example, the Clippers' Luke Kennard signed a four-year, $56 million rookie extension in December 2020 that included six sets of statistical bonuses. Kennard reached one of those incentives (games and minutes played) but did not receive the $620K bonus because the contract did not start until this season. His cap hit was adjusted from $12.7 to $13.3 million.
Kevin Durant, Aaron Gordon and Clint Capela all signed veteran extensions this offseason and will see the bonuses in their previous contracts included in their new ones. Capela earned $1.5 million of bonuses last season when the Hawks reached the Eastern Conference finals, and his defensive rebounding percentage exceeded 30. If Kyrie Irving signs an extension, the new contract must have the same bonuses from the prior contract.
Keep an eye on the bonuses of Spurs forward Thaddeus Young and Magic guard Terrence Ross. Young has $400K of bonuses in his contract for team wins and reaching the playoffs. While it is unlikely San Antonio will win 48 games this season or even reach the playoffs, Young could reach those incentives if he is traded to a playoff contender. Ross has $1 million of unlikely bonuses for team wins and the Magic reaching the second round, conference finals and NBA Finals.
Duncan Robinson, Eric Gordon and Al Horford do not have bonuses in their contracts but could see the final year of their salaries guaranteed. Robinson's $19.9 million salary becomes guaranteed if the Heat win the NBA championship in 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24 or 2024-25 and he plays more than 70 regular-season games, averages at least 25 minutes, plays in 75% of the playoff games and averages at least 25 minutes in the same season in which the Heat win the title.
Gordon's $20.9 million salary in 2023-24 is fully guaranteed if the guard is selected to the All-Star Game or his current team, the Houston Rockets, wins the NBA championship. Horford's 2022-23 salary has a partial protection of $14,500,000 but will increase by $5,000,000 to $19,500,000 if the Celtics (or the team he is on) appear in the NBA Finals this season. The $26.5 million contract becomes fully guaranteed if the Celtics win the NBA championship.