What will the NBA's Western Conference look like in 2021-22?
The Los Angeles Lakers retooled in the offseason, acquiring star names such as Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard and Rajon Rondo, while the Golden State Warriors are close to full strength with the anticipated return of Klay Thompson boosting their season outlook.
The LA Clippers, on the other hand, will be without superstar Kawhi Leonard -- he'll miss most if not all of the regular season after surgery to repair a partial ACL tear in June. Denver Nuggets star guard Jamal Murray, who suffered his ACL tear in April, will miss the bulk of 2021-22.
Will those unfortunate injuries leave the door open for teams to vault into contention? Which teams are playoff locks? Which will be fighting for spots in the play-in tournament? Who's still tanking?
Our expert panel is predicting the win-loss records for all 15 teams in the Western Conference.
Note: Our 2021-22 NBA Summer Forecast will continue Thursday with our championship and award predictions, including MVP and Rookie of the Year.
Western Conference standings
The contenders
1. Utah Jazz: 55-27
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 53-29
3. Phoenix Suns: 51-31
4. Denver Nuggets: 50-32
5. Dallas Mavericks: 48-34
6. Golden State Warriors: 48-34
Dallas finished percentage points ahead of Golden State in our panel's predictions.
Will the Lakers' offseason roster remodel -- highlighted by the blockbuster deal to bring former MVP Russell Westbrook home to Los Angeles -- make the 2020 champions the clear favorite to win the West again?
Our panel doesn't think so, at least not in the regular season.
There is no question that the Lakers lead the West in big names, as their roster now features five surefire Hall of Famers with the offseason additions of Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard joining Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Rajon Rondo, like Howard a bubble champion returning to the Lakers after a year away, will also have a strong case for Springfield.
But there are doubts about how Westbrook will fit, particularly early in the season. Both Westbrook and James have had teams get off to slow starts as they adapted to playing with fellow ball-dominant stars.
There are also concerns about whether a team that relies so heavily on older players -- nine are 32 or older -- can hold up over the 82-game grind. Davis, 28, has also had durability issues, including a groin injury that was a major factor in the Lakers' first-round exit against the Suns last season.
The Jazz, our pick to have the West's best record, have continuity coming off a season in which they led the NBA in regular-season wins. Utah believes it has upgraded its bench following a second-round playoff exit, replacing Georges Niang and Derrick Favors with Rudy Gay and Hassan Whiteside, and hopes for better health after All-Star guards Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley were hobbled during the postseason.
The Suns, who won the West last season after ending a decade-long playoff drought, kept their rotation intact by re-signing point guards Chris Paul and Cameron Payne. Phoenix can reasonably anticipate internal improvement as its key young players continue to develop, particularly starting center Deandre Ayton and small forward Mikal Bridges as they enter the final seasons of their rookie contracts.
The Nuggets are projected to finish fourth in the West despite star point guard Jamal Murray expected to miss much of the season while recovering from a torn ACL. Denver, led by reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, finished the regular season with a 13-5 stretch after losing Murray and advanced to the second round of the playoffs.
The Mavericks and Warriors are virtually tied for fifth, with Dallas finishing mere percentage points ahead of Golden State in our panel's predictions.
The Mavs didn't make any major offseason changes, settling for signing 3-and-D wings Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown in addition to re-signing shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr. Dallas is hoping for a bounce-back season from a healthy Kristaps Porzingis, who has yet to prove he can be the caliber of co-star to complement MVP candidate Luka Doncic that is necessary for the Mavs to be true contenders.
The Warriors seem far removed from their run of five straight Finals trips, considering Golden State hasn't made the playoffs the last couple of years. But Stephen Curry is still in peak form, and his fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson is anticipated to return at some point several weeks into the season after missing the last two due to knee and Achilles injuries.
-- Tim MacMahon
The play-in group
7. LA Clippers: 45-37
8. Portland Trail Blazers: 43-39
9. Memphis Grizzlies: 42-40
10. New Orleans Pelicans: 37-45
The three-win gap between Dallas and Golden State and the rest of the West field neatly matches up with the separation between the top six teams in the conference -- who would advance directly to the playoffs -- and those forced to win their way in through the NBA's play-in tournament.
That would mark a change for both the Clippers and Blazers, among last year's top six seeds. For the Clippers, the reason for the drop is obvious: Our panel surely isn't expecting Kawhi Leonard to play much, if at all, during the 2021-22 regular season after surgery to repair a partial ACL tear suffered in the playoffs last June. As well as the Clippers played after Kawhi's injury, beating the top-seeded Utah Jazz twice to advance to the conference finals, an 82-game regular season without their best player will be a much tougher challenge.
Portland's drop seems to reflect some combination of the Mavericks and Warriors having upward trajectories and the possibility that All-Star Damian Lillard asks out. If Lillard stays with the Blazers, they've got a good chance to beat their 43-39 projection, having won 42 games out of 72 a year ago despite injuries that cost them starters CJ McCollum (25 games) and Jusuf Nurkic (35) for extended stretches.
Our panel has the Memphis Grizzlies on the Blazers' heels for the eighth spot but most likely to finish in the same spot as last season, when they upset Golden State in the play-in before losing to the Jazz in five games. Having traded starting center Jonas Valanciunas for Steven Adams and added few other short-term contributors to the roster, the Grizzlies are forecast to decline in terms of winning percentage from their 38-34 record in 2020-21 despite getting a healthy Jaren Jackson Jr. to start the season.
In terms of projected record, the Pelicans are actually closer to the bottom five than the other teams in play-in territory. After a disappointing offseason saw New Orleans fail to land a veteran star to replace departed Lonzo Ball (settling instead for Devonte' Graham and Tomas Satoransky via sign-and-trade), the Pelicans are betting on internal development and the arrival of Willie Green as head coach to take the next step in their development and reach the playoffs.
-- Kevin Pelton
The bottom five
11. Sacramento Kings: 35-47
12. San Antonio Spurs: 34-48
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: 31-51
T-14. Houston Rockets: 22-60
T-14. Oklahoma City Thunder: 22-60
Houston and Oklahoma City finished tied in our panel's predictions.
Within the West's bottom five is a high degree of variance, and approach. There are teams like the Kings and Spurs, trying to find the right roster combination to make a push toward at least a play-in spot. There are the Timberwolves, with a young roster and a refreshed vision, trying to build toward something sustainably good.
And there are the Rockets and Thunder, two former titans of the conference, taking severe and abrupt falls -- strategically, mind you -- to set themselves up for long-term success.
The Kings have been in search of a breakthrough for more than a decade, with high draft picks coming and going, each year showing signs of promise only for it to end in mediocrity. There is a good team in there somewhere, with De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Tyrese Haliburton anchoring a quality backcourt. But unless there is a serious leap from Fox, it'll probably be late lottery again for Sacramento, according to our panel.
The Spurs moved on from DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, bringing in Thaddeus Young, Doug McDermott and Zach Collins. Their youthful core of Derrick White, Dejounte Murray and Keldon Johnson is good, but unless there is major development, the Spurs will be outside of the play-in again this season.
The Wolves are intriguing in that they could be the next version of the Suns, a meandering franchise with a young superstar seemingly on the verge. The offseason didn't see any major retooling, but with Anthony Edwards' exciting rookie season and the pieces in place, the Wolves are opportunistic and looking to find their veteran that leads a jump.
The Rockets will be a League Pass darling with rookie Jalen Green, and the Thunder continue to be a compelling rebuild to watch with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -- newly christened with a max deal -- and intriguing No. 6 pick Josh Giddey.
Every team in this group has at least some upside ahead, but there is certainly separation with how much, and how long it could last.
-- Royce Young