How will the NBA's Eastern Conference play out in 2021-22?
The Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets battled for the conference's No. 1 seed last season, but it was two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the third-seeded Milwaukee Bucks who went on to win the East and the NBA title.
The Nets, with their big three of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving healthy, will be looking for revenge against a Bucks team that outlasted them in a thrilling, seven-game series in the second round.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat, who acquired one of the biggest free agents of the summer in guard Kyle Lowry, have retooled in their quest to return to the NBA Finals. The Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks look to improve after surging up the East standings last season. The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers hope new head coaches can vault their franchises back into contender status.
Which teams will separate from the pack? Which teams are playoff locks? How will the field for Year 2 of the play-in tournament shape up?
Our expert panel is predicting the win-loss records for all 15 teams in the Eastern Conference.
Note: Our 2021-22 NBA Summer Forecast will continue Wednesday with our Western Conference standings predictions.
Eastern Conference standings
The contenders
1. Brooklyn Nets: 58-24
2. Milwaukee Bucks: 57-25
3. Philadelphia 76ers: 50-32
4. Miami Heat: 49-33
5. Atlanta Hawks: 47-35
6. Boston Celtics: 45-37
The days of the Eastern Conference being seen as a step below the West are over.
As we prepare to kick off the 2021-22 NBA season, the top of the East can more than hold its own. In fact, the two teams that finished atop the conference in ESPN's preseason forecast -- the Nets and Bucks -- have the two-highest projected win totals in the league entering the campaign.
While the Bucks are the defending champions, it is the team they defeated in the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Nets, that is seen as the favorites to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2022. The combination of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving plus a retooled supporting cast will be difficult to overcome.
But the Bucks are no slouches, bringing back most of the team that led Milwaukee to its first championship in half a century, led by the Bucks' own big three of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton.
It is after those two juggernauts where things get a lot more interesting, as the teams listed Nos. 3 to 6 in the forecast -- the 76ers, Heat, Hawks and Celtics -- are separated by a combined five games in our projected standings.
First up are the Sixers, who will enter training camp waiting to see if All-Star point guard Ben Simmons will follow through on his pledge to not show up if he hasn't been traded by training camp.
The Heat went through a significant roster makeover this offseason, led by signing Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker -- two definitional "Heat culture" players -- and giving superstar forward Jimmy Butler a contract extension. Those three, plus Bam Adebayo, will give Miami emphatic toughness.
Then there are the Hawks, who are coming off a breakthrough by making it to the Eastern Conference finals with their young team this past season, upsetting the Sixers en route during the second round. Atlanta was active this offseason, signing superstar guard Trae Young and center Clint Capela to contract extensions, while re-signing forward John Collins and making a couple of depth additions in guard Delon Wright and big man Gorgui Dieng.
Finally, the Celtics, after being one of the most stable organizations in the league for years, come into this season dealing with all sorts of changes. Danny Ainge left his longtime post as president of basketball operations -- only for Brad Stevens to leave the sidelines and replace him.
Then, in his first significant move in the job, Stevens traded star guard Kemba Walker to bring back a former favorite, center Al Horford. Boston also swung a trade for Josh Richardson, signed Dennis Schroder to an inexpensive, one-year deal and hired former Nets assistant Ime Udoka to take over for Stevens as head coach.
But while the second tier of contenders is intriguing, the East should be controlled by the Nets and Bucks. And after their heart-stopping, seven-game series last season, it would be awfully fun if the two of them met in the Eastern Conference finals next spring.
-- Tim Bontemps
The play-in group
7. New York Knicks: 44-38
T-8. Charlotte Hornets: 40-42
T-8. Chicago Bulls: 40-42
10. Indiana Pacers: 40-42
Charlotte and Chicago finished tied in our panel's predictions, while both teams finished percentage points ahead of Indiana.
The Knicks were the fourth seed last season, and this offseason, they brought in Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to upgrade their perimeter offense around All-Star forward Julius Randle and burgeoning former top-3 pick RJ Barrett. In our panel predictions, the Knicks' record is closer to that of the fifth-seeded Hawks than that of the eighth-seeded squads, indicating New York profiles more similarly to contenders than the play-in group.
The Hornets are a perimeter-driven team on the rise, led by reigning Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball and newly extended scoring guard Terry Rozier. They were on pace to make a playoffs push last season, before Ball was injured, and represent the young, upside team in this group. According to our panel predictions, the Hornets tied with the Bulls and finished fractionally ahead of the Pacers as the team most likely to join the Knicks in the first play-in game.
The Bulls, meanwhile, have completely revamped around Zach LaVine. First, they brought in All-Star Nikola Vucevic at last season's trade deadline; then, this summer, they added Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan via sign-and-trade deals. Featuring three veteran starters who have demonstrated the ability to score in the mid-20s per game, the Bulls have aspirations to leapfrog the play-in group and contend in the East this season.
While on paper their offense could be formidable, the Bulls have to prove they can mesh as a team and form a defensive identity if they want to make a playoff push.
The Pacers made a huge splash by rehiring former Indiana head coach Rick Carlisle, an NBA champion as a player and as a head coach. After factoring in that midseason addition Caris LeVert and bubble star T.J. Warren enter the season healthy and that young franchise big man Domantas Sabonis is coming off an All-Star season, the Pacers could be dangerous as a play-in team that might ultimately look more like a returning contender.
-- André Snellings
The bottom five
11. Washington Wizards: 36-46
12. Toronto Raptors: 35-47
13. Cleveland Cavaliers: 26-56
14. Detroit Pistons: 25-57
15. Orlando Magic: 22-60
The Wizards are Raptors aren't too far off from being in the previous group and still have the firepower to be able to challenge for a spot in the play-in tournament, according to our panel's predictions.
Washington will have a brand-new look this season, with Russell Westbrook having been dealt to the Los Angeles Lakers and Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Montrezl Harrell coming in. The Wizards also added Spencer Dinwiddie to give Bradley Beal some offensive help in the backcourt.
Meanwhile, Toronto's climb back to a potential playoff berth could just be centered around familiarity, even after trading Kyle Lowry to Miami. The Raptors will finally return to their home city after spending last season in Tampa, Florida, because of Canada's COVID-19 restrictions.
After those two, however, our panel predicts a drop-off to the bottom three teams in the conference.
Cleveland added Evan Mobley with the No. 3 pick, gave Jarrett Allen a $100 million extension and added Lauri Markkanen in a sign-and-trade deal. With Tacko Fall on a non-guaranteed contract and Kevin Love still on the roster, maybe the Cavaliers roll out some supersized lineups this year. (OK, maybe not, but it was fun to dream for a second).
The final two squads also feature high draft picks looking to find their footing. Detroit seeks to rebuild its roster around No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham, who can play a dynamic role in the offense.
Orlando brings in a pair of top picks -- Jalen Suggs (No. 4) and Franz Wagner (No. 8) -- and will hopefully get a boost with the return of forward Jonathan Isaac and guard Markelle Fultz. Still, it will be an uphill battle for new Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley as he looks to rebuild a roster our panel thinks will be at the bottom of the East.
-- Andrew Lopez