The 9 biggest unresolved storylines in NBA free agency

We're now four days into NBA free agency, and most of the big business has been completed. Kyle Lowry went to Miami; Chris Paul and Mike Conley stayed in Phoenix and Utah, respectively, and Russell Westbrook will, in a few hours, officially become a member of the Los Angeles Lakers.

But although most of the work has been done, there are still things left to monitor over the rest of the offseason. Could we still see a blockbuster trade during this offseason? Can the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks find more ways to improve their roster for next season?

Here's a quick breakdown of the nine biggest storylines to watch as the NBA's offseason rolls on:

What's next for Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard?

Beal and Lillard were both selected in the 2012 NBA draft -- third overall by the Washington Wizards, and sixth overall by the Portland Trail Blazers -- respectively. Both have spent their entire careers with those teams. And now, both of them could be approaching an inflection point where that status might change, for entirely different reasons.

Beal can be a free agent in less than a year -- the time when stars generally throw their weight around if they choose to move on. Lillard, on the other hand, is just starting the first year of the four-year supermax extension he signed two years ago -- and yet, last month, he said that he was going to wait to see what Portland did in free agency before deciding on whether to ask for a trade.

In both cases, it's likely there will be a resolution here before the season starts. In Beal's case, he will have the ability to sign an extension with Washington in October, which will make his intentions fairly obvious. If he signs it, he won't be going anywhere. If he doesn't, it's hard to see how he'll make it to the trade deadline as a Wizard. Lillard, on the other hand, will have to give some sort of referendum on what Portland has done -- and whether it's good enough to satisfy him for now -- in the coming weeks.

Will Ben Simmons and Kevin Love be on the move?

While teams across the league are circling the Lillard and Beal situations, two other big names -- Ben Simmons and Kevin Love -- find themselves in wildly different places.

After Simmons struggled mightily in the Philadelphia 76ers' Eastern Conference semifinal loss to the Atlanta Hawks -- including passing on an open dunk in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter -- it felt like his time in the City of Brotherly Love had drawn to a close. But the trade market for Simmons has been chilly around the league. There currently isn't a big-name star, like Lillard or Beal, available who Philadelphia's president of basketball operations, Daryl Morey, could overpay to acquire with a trade package of Simmons, young players and picks.

Love, on the other hand, was hoping to rehab his image -- and, the Cleveland Cavaliers hoped, rebuild some of his trade value -- with Team USA this summer. Instead, he didn't make the trip to Tokyo after a rough showing in Las Vegas and was criticized by outgoing Team USA director Jerry Colangelo for showing up out of shape. At this point, especially after Cleveland took Evan Mobley with the third overall pick in last month's NBA draft and agreed to a five-year, $100 million deal with Jarrett Allen, the only way Love's time in Cleveland is going to end anytime soon is him taking a buyout like Kemba Walker did earlier this week, and Blake Griffin did earlier this year, with multiple years left on his contract.

Where will the top remaining unrestricted free agents land?

It didn't take long for the attractive offerings on the free-agent market to quickly dry up. Now, just a few days into free agency, Reggie Jackson and Dennis Schroder are the only two unrestricted free agents who merit spending more than the veterans minimum on.

Jackson's situation seems to be the simplest of the two to sort out. The belief around the league is he's likely to return to the LA Clippers and play alongside his close friend, Paul George. The Clippers have his early Bird rights, and it seems likely they'll get a deal done.

The same can't be said for Schroder -- who seems unlikely to return to his former team, the Los Angeles Lakers, and unlikely to take a steep discount from the roughly $15 million he made last season. Now, it would appear the taxpayer's mid-level exception is the best Schroder will do somewhere else, given the lack of cap space around the league. That will undoubtedly be a tough pill for him to swallow.

Has the market dried up for the top remaining restricted free agents?

The marketplace is typically tough for restricted free agents trying to sign with other teams, given the complications that come with tying up a team's cap space for multiple days while waiting for the player's original team to make a decision. But while we've seen the Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans both make sign-and-trades to acquire RFAs this week -- Lonzo Ball by the Bulls, and Devonte' Graham by the Pelicans -- each team has a prominent RFA on their books still, as Lauri Markkanen waits for a deal in Chicago and Josh Hart in New Orleans.

Both have their flaws. Hart is the more versatile player, given he's a wing that is a solid defender, but he's also a career 30 percent 3-point shooter -- a problem in today's NBA, where shooting, particularly for perimeter players, is a huge part of the game. And while Markkanen is a good shooter, he's a player more built for the NBA in 2011 than 2021: a stretch four without the mobility to guard opposing power forwards in today's pace-and-space game, while also lacking the strength to handle centers inside defensively.

These situations tend to sort themselves out without players resorting to signing the qualifying offer. But as time goes by, and rosters fill up and cap space has all but dried up, it could take awhile.

The Oklahoma City Thunder with $32 million is the only team that has substantial cap space to sign either player to an offer sheet. A team like Cleveland can use their $9.5 million mid-level exception to sign Hart to an offer sheet, but because the contract is considered inexpensive, the likelihood is that New Orleans would match it. The Thunder, meanwhile, seem very unlikely to dip into their space to sign anyone, given the state of their rebuild and a roster full of young talent already.

How will the Lakers and Heat fill out their rosters?

The Lakers and Heat both offer the same allure in joining them: championship-adjacent rosters in premium locations with playing time to offer. Miami has the added benefit of being able to offer no state income tax as well. That said, both also have the same amount to offer to prospective players in terms of salary: the veterans minimum.

Unless the Lakers can convince Schroder to come back, they're going to be choosing from veterans who are long in the tooth, like JJ Redick, or have flaws in their game, like Mike Scott.

But this is why these are veterans minimum deals to begin with: If the players involved could get more money than that, they would. Still, both teams have successfully utilized them so far and may be able to pull a few more rabbits out of their hat in free agency. That's especially true of the Heat, who have a long track record of finding and developing young talent out of the G League, most notably Duncan Robinson, whom they agreed to keep on a five-year, $90 million deal this week.

The future of Brooklyn's Big Three

This fall, the Nets will all but certainly offer maximum contract extensions to all three of their superstars -- Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving -- when all of them will be eligible to sign them a year ahead of the possibility of entering unrestricted free agency.

Brooklyn is already set to be the second-most expensive team in NBA history -- behind only next season's Golden State Warriors -- so owner Joe Tsai has clearly committed to spending what it takes to win. But paying all three of them would make the Nets unbelievably expensive in the years to come.

Still, the Nets have shown they're willing to do whatever it takes to not only get these guys together in the first place, but prove to them they should stick around. The extension offers, and the tax bills that'll come with them, are the latest proof of that.

The total costs in extensions for the three players is an unprecedented $540 million.

Will other veterans lock up extensions?

Like last offseason, when Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Paul George signed extensions, expect the same trend to continue. Joel Embiid is eligible to sign a four-year supermax extension with the 76ers this summer. He could also choose to wait until next summer, when he would be eligible to sign a five-year deal instead, as he'd be a year away from free agency.

Marcus Smart, meanwhile, is eligible to sign a four-year, $78 million contract with the Celtics. The new contract would take one of the top trade targets off the market and likely take Boston out of the running to have max cap space in 2022. The trades to acquire Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan eliminated any hope that Zach LaVine would see his $19.5 million contract renegotiated. The Bulls are over the salary cap and because an extension for LaVine is close to $100 million less than what he can sign with Chicago next offseason, expect the All-Star to play out the season on an expiring contract. The Mavericks took an unorthodox approach when they signed Jalen Brunson to a four-year contract after he was drafted in 2018. Because the contract does not contain a team option for 2021-22, the Mavericks are at risk of Brunson playing out the contract and becoming an unrestricted free agent next offseason. The inclusion of a team option would have allowed Dallas to decline the option and make Brunson a restricted free agent this offseason. Dallas can offer the guard a four-year, $55 million extension (the maximum allowed) to ensure he stays with the Mavericks.

Denver, on the other hand, has to balance trying to keep Aaron Gordon long term while also sorting out the rest of its roster. The Nuggets, who have rarely paid the luxury tax, already have Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic on max deals, and also have to sort out Michael Porter Jr.'s future this summer or next. Signing all three of them, and Gordon, to long-term deals would take Denver to a place the Nuggets have never been in terms of the cost of their roster. There is a positive when it comes to a possible extension for Gordon. When the Magic structured the four-year $76 million contract that Gordon signed in 2018, they did so with the salary declining each year. As a result, the maximum extension that Gordon can sign for is four years, $88 million.

What about the draft class of 2018?

We've already seen Trae Young and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sign full max extensions with the Atlanta Hawks and Oklahoma City Thunder. Over the coming weeks, Luka Doncic is certain to join them, and both Deandre Ayton and Porter will likely sign hefty extensions -- and possibly max deals -- themselves. Those five alone would account for close to $900 million in committed extensions if all of them sign them.

And that doesn't even account for players like Jaren Jackson Jr., Collin Sexton, Miles Bridges, Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo and Kevin Huerter. If even a couple of them agree to deals with their teams, this class will easily surpass $1 billion in future money on this round of extensions -- the latest proof of just how talented the 2018 NBA draft is turning out to be.

Can the Warriors and Bucks afford to spend more?

The Warriors have two things working against them when it comes to their finances. First, unlike last year when teams in the tax paid a reduced penalty because of a decline in basketball related income, that is not the case this season. Instead of paying a $118 million penalty, the Warriors paid $68 million in 2020-21. The second is that the Warriors are in the luxury tax for the fourth time in five seasons and are considered a repeater tax team. For the Warriors to use the tax midlevel exception would add an additional $41 million toward their tax bill. Golden State would be at a staggering $400 million in salaries and tax penalties. Keep in mind that in 2010, Joe Lacob and his ownership group bought the Warriors for $450 million.

The new contracts for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday have Milwaukee in the luxury tax for a second consecutive season. Though the price is not as substantial as what Golden State will pay, Milwaukee is approaching $200 million in salary and luxury tax penalty. The recent George Hill signing cost the Bucks an additional $16 million in salary and tax. The Bucks used $4 million of their $5.9 million tax midlevel to sign the veteran.

What's up with Kawhi Leonard?

Leonard was the top free agent available, but unlike 2019 when the league was put in a holding pattern waiting for his decision, that was not the case this offseason. Teams carried out their business, not waiting for Leonard to decide his future. The Knicks used their allotted $50 million in cap space, signing a combination of Evan Fournier, Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose. The Heat elected not to go big-game hunting for a shot at Leonard, electing to trade for his former teammate Kyle Lowry. Only Oklahoma City had cap space remaining. And on Friday, it was reported that Leonard, 30, had decided to re-sign with the Clippers.

Despite his knee injury, Leonard held tremendous leverage. The Clippers gutted their future when they traded an unprotected first in 2022, 2024, 2026 and pick swaps in 2023 and 2025 to the Thunder as part of the Paul George deal. They recently committed $190 million to George over the next five years and had no clear path to build out the roster if they did not commit to Leonard long term even with the injury.

"We hope to have a very long-term relationship with him," team president Lawrence Frank said before free agency began. "Right now our focus is on his health. He had major surgery. He tore his ACL. So it's going to require a great deal of time and more support."