Which NBA free agents left on the market can most help teams?
After a whirlwind first 36 hours of free agency, the vast majority of top players have already agreed to deals with teams that can't be made official until the end of the league's moratorium period on Friday. Just two players remain from my projections for the top 20 free agents entering the offseason -- a handful of whom never made it to the market because of player or team options.
As a result, now is a good time to revisit the top free agents to see what kind of help teams with remaining cap space or exceptions can hope to get.
1. Kawhi Leonard
LA Clippers
Forward
Unrestricted
Kawhi operates at his own speed. Unlike 2019, when three teams waited patiently for Leonard's decision to join the Clippers as an unrestricted free agent instead of re-signing with the Toronto Raptors or heading to the rival Los Angeles Lakers, that hasn't really held up the process this time. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the only team remaining with enough cap space to offer Kawhi a maximum contract. Barring a shocking sign-and-trade, then, Leonard will be returning to the Clippers at a higher salary than the $36 million player option he declined.
2. Reggie Jackson
LA Clippers
Guard
Unrestricted
After Jackson's outstanding run to the Western Conference finals, which saw him average 17.8 PPG on 63% true shooting, the Clippers had to have some concern they'd get outbid in free agency. Because they have early Bird rights on Jackson, the most the Clippers can offer is a deal starting at $10.4 million. Again, just two teams can now offer more than that, so a Jackson return to the Clippers at a sizable raise from his previous minimum salary seems likely.
3. Kelly Oubre Jr.
Golden State Warriors
Guard/Forward
Unrestricted
Oubre's time with the Warriors got off to a rough start, as he shot 7-of-51 (13%) from 3-point range in the season's first 10 games. From that point onward, Oubre was more or less his usual self, although the fit was still awkward. Golden State went 12-5 in games Oubre missed and now gets back Klay Thompson at shooting guard, making it unclear whether the Warriors want to pay heavily in luxury tax to bring him back.
4. Dennis Schroder
Los Angeles Lakers
Guard
Unrestricted
The carousel of starting point guards available in free agency has all but stopped without Schroder finding a spot. A return to the Lakers seems unlikely after they added Russell Westbrook via trade, but where else might Schroder go? Besides Oklahoma City, the Charlotte Hornets are the other team with cap space to offer more than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, and they have already signed Ish Smith as a backup to starter LaMelo Ball. A sign-and-trade might be a better option for Schroder, with the Lakers likely happy to participate in order to create a useful trade exception.
5. Paul Millsap
Denver Nuggets
Forward
Unrestricted
After four seasons in Denver, Millsap is surely looking for a new home. The Nuggets struck a deal with Jeff Green as a replacement for Millsap in their frontcourt, pushing them up against the luxury-tax line and presumably taking Millsap's return off the table. A few contenders -- including the NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks -- still have their taxpayer midlevel exception to offer on a potential short-term deal for Millsap, who remains a productive two-way contributor at age 36. Last season's 55% accuracy on 2-point attempts was the best of Millsap's career.
6. Josh Hart
New Orleans Pelicans
Guard/Forward
Restricted
Given the constraints in terms of cap space, Hart seems overwhelmingly likely to return to the Pelicans, who can match any offer to him as a restricted free agent. The negotiations on what kind of deal Hart gets could drag on a bit without the leverage of a suitor capable of signing him to an offer sheet for more than the midlevel exception. Taking a one-year qualifying offer and testing unrestricted free agency the following year is a common threat in these situations but relatively toothless here because Hart's $3.5 million qualifying offer as the No. 30 pick overall in 2017 is so far below his market value.
7. Lauri Markkanen
Chicago Bulls
Forward
Restricted
By contrast, Markkanen taking his $9 million qualifying offer is a much more logical possibility for both sides. Markkanen would be hard-pressed at this point to get more than that in an offer sheet, while it leaves Chicago enough room to fill out the roster and avoid the luxury tax after swinging sign-and-trade deals for Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan.
8. James Ennis III
Orlando Magic
Forward
Unrestricted
Would you believe just six remaining free agents started a higher percentage of the games they played last season than Ennis? He started 37 of 41 games (90%) for the Magic, averaging 24.1 MPG. Ennis made a career-high 43% of his 3-point attempts, intriguing for contenders looking for more shooting on the perimeter without compromising their defense. Ennis hasn't shot this well in a full season before and is a career 36% 3-point shooter, so teams shouldn't necessarily expect a repeat, but he could still be useful in a limited role off the bench.
9. Hamidou Diallo
Detroit Pistons
Guard
Restricted
Diallo was traded from the Oklahoma City Thunder to Detroit during the midst of a breakthrough third season that saw him average 11.6 PPG on career-best 48% shooting. Always an incredible athlete, the 2019 slam dunk champion harnessed that potential a bit more at age 22 (he's since turned 23), creating problems with his speed in transition and relentlessly attacking the basket in the half court. We even saw Diallo hit 34% of his 3s, although his poor foul shooting (64%) is a discouraging indicator about his potential for further development. Given Diallo's age, he'd be an interesting target for an offer sheet using the midlevel exception, but I would expect the Pistons to match any such offer.
10. Jarred Vanderbilt
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forward
Restricted
After playing sparingly in his first two seasons, which saw him go to Minnesota via trade from the Denver Nuggets, Vanderbilt saw a much larger role in 2020-21. He started 30 of his 64 games and averaged 17.8 MPG while shooting 61% from the field and posting strong rates in rebounds, blocks and steals. Vanderbilt, who turned 22 in April, is a tough fit positionally because he doesn't offer floor spacing at power forward -- he's made one career 3 and is a 57% foul shooter -- and not quite enough rim protection to play center on a regular basis. Still, Vanderbilt is younger than three players drafted in the first round last month (Chris Duarte, Corey Kispert and Davion Mitchell), suggesting there's plenty of growth remaining.