What kind of value are the Chicago Bulls getting with a four-year, $85 million deal to land Lonzo Ball as part of a sign-and-trade with the New Orleans Pelicans?
Shortly after the start of the NBA's free agency moratorium Monday, the two sides and Ball agreed to a sign-and-trade that gave Chicago the ability to stay over the cap while adding one of the top free agents on the market. The Bulls also avoid having to sweat out a decision by the Pelicans on whether to match, adding Ball immediately.
Let's take a look at how Ball fits in Chicago and how the Bulls' roster is shaping up for 2021-22.
Continued improvement projected for Ball
When I put together three-year projections for this summer's free agents based on their statistical performance and the development of similar players at the same age, Ball came out third overall behind future Hall of Famers Kawhi Leonard and Chris Paul.
In part, that's explained by Ball rating better statistically than he has by acclaim during his first four NBA seasons. While detractors (correctly) point to Ball's difficulty scoring out of pick-and-rolls and (now incorrectly) his lack of shooting, his versatility and strong steal and block rates have historically been markers of valuable players.
Additionally, Ball benefits from being years younger than most of the other notable free agents switching teams. A four-year deal takes him only through age 27, the point at which players typically peak. We've already seen Ball take dramatic strides as a shooter, going from making 31.5% of his 3s during his first two seasons with the Los Angeles Lakers to 38% in two years in New Orleans. His free throw percentage has also gone up markedly from 44% with the Lakers to 57% in 2019-20 and 78% last season.
To some extent, Ball's development as a scorer is bounded by his ineffectiveness as a pick-and-roll scorer. He ranked in the bottom quartile of players who ran at least 500 screens during the 2020-21 regular season by shooting on just 21% of those screens, per Second Spectrum tracking. Still, Ball can continue to hone his decision-making on both of the ends, and his improved free throw shooting might eventually translate into more attempts than the 1.2 per game he has averaged over his career.
How does Ball fit in Chicago?
The Bulls have been rumored to be after Ball, dating back to the trade deadline, when they were apparently unable to agree to a deal after landing center Nikola Vucevic from the Orlando Magic in the biggest trade of the day. It's logical given Chicago has a need at point guard, where Coby White has profiled better as a reserve scorer than a starter thus far in his NBA career.
Given Ball isn't a conventional pick-and-roll playmaker at the point, the Bulls will continue depending on Zach LaVine to initiate much of their offense. According to Second Spectrum, LaVine's 48.9 ball screens received per 100 possessions ranked 13th among players who received at least 500, and the 1.01 points per chance Chicago averaged on those plays was solidly above league average.
The more interesting question is how much Ball will accelerate the Bulls' pace of play. Chicago hasn't averaged more possessions per 48 minutes than league average since 2017-18, Fred Hoiberg's last full year at the helm. However, head coach Billy Donovan has a track record of playing faster from his time with the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Ball's teams have consistently played at a top-10 pace because of his ability in the open court.
At the same time, Vucevic's teams have typically been plodding, and the Bulls slowed down after adding him at the deadline. They were 25th in pace after the trade, per NBA Advanced Stats, after ranking eighth in the pre-deadline portion of the season. One possible solution: staggering the minutes of Ball and Vucevic as much as possible, allowing Ball and White to anchor a faster-paced second unit that could also feature Thaddeus Young as a small-ball center while LaVine and Vucevic play more deliberate pick-and-pop basketball with Ball on the bench.
Chicago also adds Caruso
Reuniting a pair of former Lakers who helped the team to the 2017 NBA summer league championship, the Bulls later agreed to a four-year, $37 million deal with unrestricted free agent Alex Caruso. That means Chicago will likely act as an over-the-cap team, signing Caruso using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception and retaining Bird rights to restricted free agent Lauri Markkanen while also adding Ball.
That direction is intriguing because it means Chicago will apparently not renegotiate LaVine's contract while simultaneously adding to it with an extension, a possibility ESPN's Brian Windhorst wrote about Monday. Any renegotiation and extension would have required the Bulls to create cap space for the amount of the raise for LaVine.
Adding Caruso gives Chicago a deep backcourt with a variety of options but does leave the team thin in the frontcourt barring a trade. If Young and second-year forward Patrick Williams start alongside Vucevic, that leaves Aminu as the only frontcourt reserve currently under contract. Perhaps that means the Bulls will retain Markkanen. Alternatively, they could look to sign-and-trade him to another team for backup big men.
Given the upgrades by other teams on the fringes of the East playoff picture, it's too early to make Chicago a favorite to reach the postseason for the first time since 2017. Nonetheless, adding Ball on a reasonable contract looks like a step forward for the Bulls.