Nothing shakes up the fantasy basketball world quite like free agency. Already, we've seen a number of notable players pack their bags for new teams.
So how does that impact their fantasy value? And how does it change the roles for the players on their new team and previous team?
Let's take a closer look, focusing on the free agent signings who have top-150 fantasy potential in 2021-22.
Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat
The Heat brought in Lowry to run their show, which should make them a better team. The move seems to be a negative to the fantasy value of the 35-year-old Lowry, however, as he leaves a Raptors situation that had grown around him, allowing him to play a high-usage scoring and distributing role for much of the past eight seasons. Even last season, when he shared lead guard responsibilities with Fred VanVleet, Lowry was still able to average 17.2 PPG, 7.3 APG, 5.4 RPG and 2.8 3PG in 34.8 MPG.
On this Heat squad he'll be sharing the playmaking and perimeter scoring duties with a whole host of strong producers, including Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, and center Bam Adebayo is an offensive hub as well. Lowry's minutes should also go down, which is probably for the best at this point in his career, but his counting stats seem destined to drop as well. He was still a top-40 fantasy prospect with the Raptors last season, but in his new role he may be closer to top-60 in points leagues.
Lonzo Ball, Chicago Bulls
Ball becomes the new point guard for the Bulls, which should be great for his peripheral numbers. He averaged 7.2 APG, 6.9 RPG, 1.7 SPG and 0.8 BPG as a rookie, all of which still represent career best marks. This is in large part because he's spent the last several seasons playing next to players that cannibalized his numbers. Most recently that was Eric Bledsoe and playmaking forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram on the Pelicans. All in all, Ball has consistently played on teams that didn't rely on his playmaking and rebounding to succeed.
In Chicago, he will be running the show next to a pure scorer in Zach LaVine and newly acquired DeMar DeRozan. Nikola Vucevic is a do-everything big man, but the other Bulls' starters project to be finishers on offense more-so than creators. The unit will look to Ball to set the table and set up his scorers in optimal positions. In addition, Ball should be free to roam defensively and crash the boards, leading to some new career marks in peripheral categories. He's coming off personal bests of 14.6 PPG, 3.1 3PG, 78.1 FT% and 41.4 FG% last season. While it's possible that he'll miss the defensive attention that Zion drew, his development as a scorer seemed more strongly tied to his own personal growth and, at only 23 years old, he is likely to continue to improve offensively. Ball has top-30 fantasy upside with the Bulls, and will be on my draft radar by the fourth or fifth round this season.
One beneficiary of Ball's departure from the Pelicans is the newly signed Devonte' Graham, who looks to be the new starting point guard in New Orleans after earning the small portion of the lead guard time share for the Hornets last season. Graham averaged 18.2 PPG, 7.5 APG and 3.5 3PG in the 2019-20 season, his first as a full-time starter. This season, he'll be getting the open looks that Zion and crew used to create for Ball. He has a good chance to match or exceed his numbers from two seasons ago, making him a top-50 prospect.
Another winner in these deals, especially when you factor in that Bledsoe was also traded away to the Grizzlies, is Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The prospect of Alexander-Walker becoming a starter makes me predict him as my sleeper for next season. He was outstanding in the Las Vegas Summer League before his rookie season, and in his first start of his sophomore season he exploded for 37 points, eight rebounds and five 3-pointers. In 12 starts on the season, he scored 30 or more points three times and at least 20 another two. Keep an eye on Alexander-Walker's ADP and make sure to draft reasonably, but if he does earn starter minutes I wouldn't be at all surprised if he finishes next season as a top-75 fantasy producer.
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are back with their third major move of the first 24 hours of free agency, this time bringing in DeRozan as another primary scorer on the wing. The Bulls' offensive hierarchy now features three players that consistently average more than 20.0 PPG, and that's in addition to new point guard Lonzo Ball running the show and directing the offense. From a fantasy perspective, DeRozan has been metronome consistent for much of the last decade, regardless of his team or his teammates. In each of the last four seasons, DeRozan has averaged between 21.2 and 23.0 PPG and between 5.2 and 6.9 APG. Those numbers could drop slightly with the Bulls, especially the assists, but on the whole this is about what we should expect. He was probably the most unheralded top-30 player in fantasy basketball before the move, and while he may be more like top-50 with the Bulls he'll still likely have an ADP slightly behind his actual value.
As part of the sign-and-trade, the Bulls sent Thaddeus Young to the Spurs. Young is a veteran combo big that produced some strong, near triple-double stat lines during a mid-season stretch where he started at center before the Bulls traded for Nikola Vucevic. For the Spurs, Young currently projects to a similar forward depth role off the bench behind Jakob Poeltl, Olympian Keldon Johnson and newly signed Doug McDermott. Young could get close to the 24.6 MPG he's averaged over the last couple of seasons with the Bulls, but he's unlikely to get much more than that. His averages during those two seasons of 11.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.7 3PG and 0.5 BPG make a reasonable estimate for what he'll do with the Spurs, which could make him worth considering late in roto drafts. Otherwise, he projects as a potential fantasy free agent that will likely be added/dropped several times in most leagues unless/until he latches on to starter minutes in the case of injury.
Andre Drummond, Philadelphia 76ers
Drummond joins his long-time on-court nemesis Joel Embiid with the 76ers, giving them a strong backup center of a similar mold with the size and rebounding ability to keep the team afloat when Embiid is out of the game. However, neither Drummond nor Embiid can play any position outside of center, so there's no opportunity for them to play together to get Drummond more minutes. As such, he'll be relegated to the role that Dwight Howard played last season, which led to Howard averaging 8.4 RPG and 7.0 PPG in 17.3 MPG with six spot-starts. Drummond is a rebound vacuum, and could potentially flirt with a double-double average even in limited minutes, but this role takes him out of his traditional role near the top of fantasy drafts and makes him more of a late round depth pick with upside in most drafts.
Kemba Walker, New York Knicks
After a buyout by Oklahoma City, Walker joined Evan Fournier in making the quick turnaround from wearing a Celtics uniform to making Madison Square Garden their new home. Walker, when healthy, is still one of the better scoring point guards in the league, capable of creating offense for himself and teammates. During his two seasons with the Celtics, he averaged 19.9 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.9 RPG, 3.1 3PG and 1.0 SPG in 31.4 MPG despite playing with multiple ball-dominant perimeter scorer-creators and dealing with a nagging knee injury. Health is still a question mark for Walker, but he should have the ball in his hands more with larger responsibilities for the Knicks this season than he's had since he left the Hornets. He has top-25 fantasy upside this season, and even with the question marks he's likely to start getting drafted by the fourth round of most leagues.
Evan Fournier, New York Knicks
The Knicks brought in Fournier to replace Reggie Bullock as a starting wing. While Bullock was a 3-and-D player, Fournier is more of an offense creator for himself and the team. The Knicks also brought back Derrick Rose as well as Walker, and youngsters RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley are expected to improve as well, but Fournier should have a role with the team analogous to the role he held with the Magic for the last few seasons. During the 2019-20 season, Fournier set new season-long career best marks of 18.5 PPG and 2.6 3PG. He was in the process of improving on those numbers last season, averaging 19.7 PPG on 46.1 FG% and 79.7 FT%, 3.7 APG, 2.8 3PG and 1.0 SPG in 30.3 MPG in the 26 games with the Magic before his trade to the Celtics. Those numbers make a reasonable expectation for Fournier with the Knicks, making him a solid top-100 fantasy play with upside to the top-75 in roto leagues.
Spencer Dinwiddie, Washington Wizards
Dinwiddie lands with the Wizards as their new point guard, following in the footsteps of Russell Westbrook and John Wall. The Wizards tend to have high usage point guards, which is excellent for fantasy volume. There are still questions on whether Bradley Beal will remain with the team, but even if he does Dinwiddie would still be relied upon to run the show at a level that we only got to see glimpses of when he was with the Nets. Dinwiddie made 49 starts during the 2019-20 season, primarily while Kyrie Irving was out, and responded with impressive averages of 21.3 PPG, 7.3 APG, 3.8 RPG and 1.9 3PG in 32.3 MPG. These numbers make a good starting projection for Dinwiddie on the Wizards, making him a solid top-50 fantasy option with top-25 upside.
Dennis Schroder, Boston Celtics
The Celtics continued one of the most interesting offseasons in awhile with the signing of Schroder to a one-year deal. Schroder had reportedly turned down a multi-year deal with the Lakers worth more than $80M during the season, indicating the type of player that he sees himself to be. His box score production can be pretty impressive, when given the minutes. Over the last six season, he's averaged 20.2 Points per 36 minutes (PP36), 6.4 AP36, 4.0 RP36, 1.7 3P36 and 1.1 SP36. However, it isn't clear that Schroder will even start for the Celtics this season, as Marcus Smart could retain the starting point guard role. And of course, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are expected to be the high-volume centerpieces of the Celtics' offense this season. On the bright side, Schroder showed just two seasons ago that he could contribute mightily as a sixth man, when he averaged 18.9 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.6 RPG and 1.9 3PG in 30.8 MPG off the bench for the Thunder. Schroder will likely be productive for the Celtics, whether he starts or not, but his scoring volume likely goes down in Boston while his assists may go up. He's still a Top-100 fantasy prospect, making him likely to be drafted in the middle-to-late rounds of most fantasy basketball drafts.
Daniel Theis, Houston Rockets
Theis joins the extremely young offensive-minded Rockets as the presumptive defensive anchor and veteran presence. Theis will likely start next to Christian Wood in the frontcourt, in a role similar to the one he's played for the Bulls and Celtics in recent seasons. In Houston, he will likely play more minutes. Theis has averaged 9.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 0.6 SPG and 0.6 3PG in 24.4 MPG during the past two seasons. If those minutes bump up a bit on a Rockets team that's likely to be free-shooting, Theis could flirt with a double-double while averaging around a block, a 3-pointer and a steal per game. While he'd still be a fringe top-100 prospect in points leagues, his category versatility could make him worth paying attention to a bit earlier in roto leagues.
Rudy Gay, Utah Jazz
Gay joins the Jazz as forward depth that could even play some small-ball center in a pinch, but it's difficult to see him getting much playing time on a deep Jazz frontcourt unit that features Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O'Neale as starters in addition to Joe Ingles and Hassan Whiteside off the bench if none of their players move on. Even so, Gay has shown that he's still capable of producing reasonable numbers in limited minutes. He has averaged 11.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.4 3PG, 0.6 SPG and 0.6 BPG in 21.7 MPG during the last two seasons. The veteran forward is a fringe prospect at the end of fantasy basketball drafts, but more likely would be a free agent to keep an eye on, particularly in roto leagues.
Patty Mills, Brooklyn Nets
The Nets brought in Mills to fill the spark plug off the bench role that was once manned by Spencer Dinwiddie. While the Nets' Big 3 handle the bulk of the scoring, the second unit needs production as well. Plus, health was a concern for the Nets last season, so having a veteran like Mills who can get his own shot is very important. From a fantasy perspective, Mills' value in Brooklyn is probably similar to what it was with the Spurs. He's averaged 11.2 PPG, 2.4 3PG and 2.1 APG in 23.7 MPG for the Spurs during the last two seasons, and if he maintains that level of production or the Nets he'd likely be an undrafted free agent of interest in most fantasy basketball leagues this fall.
Kelly Olynyk, Detroit Pistons
Olynyk joined the Pistons as the veteran big man on a roster filled with very young talent. Olynyk showed during his stint with the Rockets last season that he can put up strong fantasy numbers if called upon as a full-time starter on a rebuilding team, averaging 19.0 PPG, 54.5 FG%, 84.4 FT%, 8.4 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.8 3PG and 1.4 SPG in 31.1 MPG in his 27 games with the Rockets. Olynyk is unlikely to have such a large role on the young Pistons, as he is expected to battle with sophomore big man Isaiah Stewart for the starting gig. Olynyk's shooting and savvy do make him an attractive option, though, giving young lead guards Cade Cunningham and Killian Hayes a floor-spacing option in the middle. Even if Olynyk's numbers fall closer to his full-season averages of 13.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 1.8 3PG in 28.5 MPG than what he did with the Rockets, he's still a likely top-100 fantasy producer that should get consideration in the later rounds of most drafts this fall.
Doug McDermott, San Antonio Spurs
McDermott is coming off the best season of his career, and has parlayed that into a new deal and likely starting spot on the Spurs. Last season, McDermott started almost half of his games with the Pacers, and averaged 13.6 PPG, 53.2 FG%, 81.6 FT%, 3.3 RPG, 1.7 3PG and 1.3 APG in 24.5 MPG. If the Spurs do give him a starting role, he could potentially up those counting numbers a bit further this season, and would make him a candidate to be drafted late in fantasy basketball leagues. That's particularly true in roto leagues, where the 3-point shooting and percentages would be of value.
Enes Kanter, Boston Celtics
The Celtics continue to play a game of do-over at center, re-adding former the former Celtic after earlier re-adding Al Horford. Kanter joins a crowded Celtics center position, with youngster Robert Williams III and Horford giving them a 3-headed timeshare. Kanter is coming off an excellent season; he averaged a double-double and career-bests with 11.0 RPG and 60.4 FG%. However, it's hard to imagine him coming close to the 24.4 MPG he played last season as potentially the third center off the bench. He might still be worth considering late in fantasy drafts on the possibility that he gets the minutes, but he's more of a flier than a sure pick at this stage.
Alex Caruso, Chicago Bulls
The Bulls signed a second former Lakers guard, with Caruso joining Ball in their backcourt. While Ball was brought in as their point guard of the future, Caruso looks to be reprising his role as the point guard equivalent of a 3-and-D producer off the bench. The Bulls look to start Ball and All Star Zach LaVine in the backcourt, with third year former lottery selection Coby White as the offensive engine off the bench. Caruso, then, would be called upon to play stiff defense and knock down key shots while helping stabilize the second unit. Caruso has averaged 1.1 steals and 0.8 3PG on 38.8 3P% in 19.9 MPG during the past three seasons. His numbers will likely remain in this range, with perhaps a small uptick in made 3-pointers, in a similar role with the Bulls.