Free agency doesn't technically start until Aug. 2, but in talking to league executives and agents, it's clear negotiations are already well underway.
The lesson so far? The offseason will revolve around a long, complicated game of point-guard musical chairs -- one that could, league executives and insiders say, create moves and countermoves across the NBA in the wee hours of free agency. And not just with free agents -- of which there are many -- but also superstars under long-term contracts, such as Damian Lillard and Ben Simmons.
There are a handful of teams in need of point guards, many of them in desirable big markets. Some have cap space like the New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans. Others don't, like the Los Angeles Lakers and the LA Clippers.
After watching Chris Paul's incredible impact on the Phoenix Suns -- and on the heels of a similar performance in Oklahoma City Thunder a season before -- teams are looking to replicate that success, sources say, by chasing veteran guards to uplift young, inexperienced rosters.
Namely, these conversations have so far revolved around Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley and Paul himself if he opts out of his contract with the Suns. According to sources, the Mavericks, looking to ease the burden on Luka Doncic, have shown interest in both Conley and Lowry, the latter of whom stands to have his pick of money and championship contender -- and potentially both.
The Philadelphia 76ers, who have been exploring trade possibilities with Simmons in recent weeks, are also expected to be in the Lowry sweepstakes via a sign-and-trade with the Raptors, who have expressed a willingness to do so if they can't keep their franchise guard, sources say.
Teams who could sign Lowry outright, without the need for a trade, include the Pelicans, Knicks and Heat, all of whom would love Lowry's leadership, defensive skills and shotmaking. New Orleans has been particularly aggressive, executing a trade Monday that cleared an additional $20 million in cap space that would give them the ammo to make Lowry a massive offer.
Paul, for his part, has indicated he's willing to opt out of his $44 million deal for next year, sources say, though taking that position could be a leverage play with the Suns under pressure to keep him. Paul can sign a three-year contract without triggering the Over-38 rule -- CBA minutiae that complicates contracts for players who have deals that stretch beyond their 38th birthday -- or stay in his current deal and work out an extension with Phoenix, where he might take a pay cut after next year's giant check.
While there is desire to keep Paul after this magical season, the Suns also must keep an eye on their future payroll. They can negotiate big contract extensions this summer for both Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges that would kick in for 2022-23 while Devin Booker still has four years and nearly $130 million remaining on his deal.
There's been chatter about Paul and the Lakers, but such a union would require either a complex sign-and-trade or major financial sacrifice from Paul, both of which are difficult to imagine. The Lakers tried to deal for Lowry at the trade deadline and would have the same challenge if attempting to acquire Paul.
League executives believe Conley is most likely to stay in Utah, with the Jazz investigating the possibility of reducing payroll to make room next to Donovan Mitchell's new max contract coming onto the books. The Jazz have the 30th pick and could use that as incentive to offload salary if needed.
Beyond those veterans, there's a deep list of guards who are seeking big paydays. Dennis Schroder turned down a four-year, $84 million extension from the Lakers this winter and is an unrestricted free agent. And he could have options. Bulls coach Billy Donovan had success with Schroder in Oklahoma City and is believed to be interested in a possible reunion.
Then there's four-year vet Lonzo Ball. Back in May, Zion Williamson made his feelings known about his point guard, saying, "I really would want Zo to come back and he knows that. ... Zo's a grown man so he's going to make the decision that's best for him. The only thing I can say is I hope he stays."
Even with that on the record, league executives believe the Pelicans are willing to let Ball go if he gets an aggressive offer sheet or they find a different option. Ball has been linked to the Bulls for more than a year, sources say, and could also be on the Knicks' list.
If they lose Ball and miss on Lowry, the Pelicans might be on the lookout for Spencer Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie is looking for big money; in a recent interview with Sports Illustrated, he tossed out a five-year, $125 million contract as what he would be looking for to re-sign with the Brooklyn Nets.
That's one way to negotiate. Like Ball, seeing whether Dinwiddie's market rises to his $25 million annual goal may take time. But what is known is there's a connection in New Orleans with general manager Trajan Langdon, who was with Dinwiddie in Brooklyn. His ability to play on and off the ball could be a nice fit next to Williamson, who is expected to play a lot of point forward.
Then there's 32-year-old Derrick Rose, an unrestricted free agent after averaging 15 points and 4.2 assists in 35 strong games for the Knicks. Though they are after bigger names, don't assume the Knicks will just let Rose go. He's well-known as a favorite of coach Tom Thibodeau. But numerous teams have tried to acquire the former MVP guard over the last few years, and he will have options again.
There's Cameron Payne, who has earned his first real payday after a productive year for the Suns as a backup. There's restricted free agent Devonte' Graham from the Charlotte Hornets, who are believed to be interested in extending Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges, plus need to sign a starting center, all of which could squeeze their finances. There's Reggie Jackson, whose playoff run with the Clippers undoubtedly raised his value. LA can keep him but can only offer up to $10 million. There's also T.J. McConnell, who has multiple teams interested in him after a good run in Indiana.
And Goran Dragic could end up on the open market if the Heat need cap space. He is another of those desired veteran point guards and has lots of fans in front offices, including in New Orleans and Dallas, where countryman Doncic plays.
A reasonable number of these players are expected to move in August with potentially more being involved in trades. Collin Sexton of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Ricky Rubio of the Minnesota Timberwolves are among those who so far have been floated on the trade market.
Hanging over all of this are the uncertain futures of Lillard and Simmons, All-Star point guards who have unstable futures and who would be highly desired if they truly end up on the market.
The point guard market is as robust as it's ever been -- and this year's free-agency period will almost surely be defined by it.