The Memphis Grizzlies are finalizing a deal to send center Jonas Valanciunas and this year's No. 17 and No. 51 picks to the New Orleans Pelicans in exchange for Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe, Nos. 10 and 40 in Thursday's draft and a top 10-protected 2022 first-rounder (via the Los Angeles Lakers), sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
What does this mean for New Orleans' offseason? And what does this signal for Memphis?
Kevin Pelton hands out trade grades for both teams.
Pelicans get: Jonas Valanciunas, Nos. 17 and 51 picks in the 2021 draft
Grizzlies get: Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe, Nos. 10 and 40 in the 2021 draft and a top 10-protected 2022 first-round pick (Lakers)
New Orleans Pelicans: B+
When I wrote last week about the lessons from the 2021 playoffs teams might try to apply this offseason, I mentioned the Pelicans as prime candidates to attempt to pull off what the Phoenix Suns did this year: going from the lottery to contention overnight. This deal looks like the second step in that plan after New Orleans hired Suns assistant Willie Green as Stan Van Gundy's replacement at head coach.
Swapping out the $35-plus million owed to Adams and Bledsoe in 2021-22 for Valanciunas' $14 million salary would allow New Orleans to create up to nearly $37 million in cap space this summer, more than enough to make a run at a veteran point guard of its own to mirror Phoenix's addition of Chris Paul. As ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski noted in reporting the trade, that space could be earmarked for Toronto Raptors free agent Kyle Lowry if the Pelicans decide to move on from restricted free agent Lonzo Ball.
Realistically, New Orleans could probably make a run at Lowry while retaining the rights to restricted free agent Josh Hart. With Hart's $10.5 million cap hold on the books, the Pelicans could still offer Lowry a starting salary of up to nearly $27 million assuming they waive forward Wenyen Gabriel (whose 2021-22 salary is non-guaranteed) and decline a team option on guard Didi Louzada.
In that scenario, New Orleans would stand to upgrade at a couple of positions. Even at age 35, Lowry projects as the third-best player potentially available in free agency in terms of 2021-22 value behind Paul and Kawhi Leonard. And Valanciunas should prove a better fit at center next to Zion Williamson than Adams because he provides a modicum of floor spacing (Valanciunas made 21 3-pointers at a 37% clip last season) and is simply a more productive player at this stage of his career.
It's unlikely adding Lowry and Valanciunas would actually transform the Pelicans into Western Conference champions. More reasonably, New Orleans can aspire to return to the playoffs after a three-year absence with a chance at winning a series. Then again, I wrote more or less the same thing about the Suns before they dealt for Paul, so you never know.
If the Pelicans are going to make that kind of jump, it's going to depend on the development of their guards drafted in the first round the past two years. Given Hart has been more effective in a reserve role, New Orleans is probably looking at promoting either Nickeil Alexander-Walker or Kira Lewis Jr. to the starting lineup. That's going to demand far more efficiency than we saw from those players last season; one of them taking a leap would substantially increase the team's ceiling.
The concern is the alternative cost of clearing cap space. To add a veteran guard, whether it's Lowry or someone else (Mike Conley of the Utah Jazz would also fit the bill, while other free agents at point guard include Spencer Dinwiddie and Dennis Schroder), the Pelicans would have to move on from Ball, who has a better three-year outlook by my projections than any of them.
Clearing the salary of Adams and Bledsoe, both acquired last offseason, will also cost New Orleans seven spots in this year's first round and a protected first-round pick coming in 2022 from the Lakers. Per ESPN's Andrew Lopez, the Pelicans have added top-10 protection to that pick, meaning they'll keep it if the Lakers unexpectedly end up picking in the top 10 next summer.
The good news is New Orleans still has plenty of extra picks coming from the Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks via the trades sending out Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday. Because of LeBron James' age -- he'll turn 37 in December -- the 2022 pick is less valuable than the one coming to the Pelicans from the Lakers in either 2024 or 2025.
Swapping down to No. 17 in this year's draft rather than giving up the No. 10 pick outright also works in New Orleans' favor. Based on my analysis of pick value, I estimate the difference between the 10th and 17th picks as equivalent to the 30th and final pick of the first round. (In practice, teams usually pay more than that to move up from 17th to 10th.)
While I would be looking to retain Ball rather than bring in a free agent at guard, the cost to increase cap flexibility and improve at center doesn't look all that bad when factoring in this year's swap and the likelihood the 2022 Lakers pick falls in the 20s. If that's the direction the Pelicans were headed, this trade is a reasonable way to get there.
Memphis Grizzlies: B
Exactly how the Grizzlies might use their cap space this summer has been one of the NBA's most intriguing mysteries. I also mentioned Memphis as a contender for a Phoenix-style consolidation trade, but the Grizzlies' unexpected success the past two seasons means there's less pressure on the front office to win now to appease its own top draft pick from 2019 (Ja Morant, taken one spot after New Orleans drafted Zion Williamson) or maintain job security.
As a result, Memphis will continue building for the long haul while simultaneously contending for the playoffs after advancing from the NBA's inaugural play-in tournament this spring.
Part of the challenge for the Grizzlies in utilizing up to $23 million in cap room was that there's no obvious place to upgrade. Memphis already went two-deep with solid contributors at every position, meaning only an above-average starter would be a real improvement. Instead, the Grizzlies decided to again utilize that room to add draft capital by taking back the salaries of Adams and Bledsoe.
Adams should fit better in Memphis than he did in New Orleans. The Grizzlies can start him alongside a floor spacer in Jaren Jackson Jr. while continuing to pair Jackson with a burly center capable of handling more physical defensive assignments. Because of Adams' superior ability to box out defensively while a teammate grabs the rebound -- something Russell Westbrook enjoyed when they played together with the Oklahoma City Thunder -- Jackson should be a winner of this trade.
Bledsoe's fit is less clear, and I wouldn't be surprised if Memphis traded him elsewhere for a player who's less capable of contributing but has no guaranteed salary for 2022-23. Bledsoe is due $18.1 million this season and has $3.9 million guaranteed in 2022-23, the final year of his deal. He can still be a contributor in the right setting, but the Grizzlies already get similar production at a far cheaper rate from younger reserve De'Anthony Melton. A buyout agreement making Bledsoe a free agent wouldn't shock me either.
From a logistical standpoint, the Grizzlies will have to make this trade after the 2021-22 league year begins to utilize cap space to take on more salary. That necessitates declining a $13 million team option on Justise Winslow, who struggled to find a role in Memphis last season after returning from a series of injuries. Dealing for Winslow at the 2020 trade deadline was a rare misstep by this Grizzlies front office.
Looking forward, Memphis might not have wanted to commit to extending Valanciunas' contract or re-signing him as an unrestricted free agent next summer. As clean as the Grizzlies' books are now, they're looking at substantial raises for most of their players as their contracts expire in the next couple of seasons. Paying Adams for 2022-23 shouldn't be an issue because of Bledsoe's non-guarantee and the expiration of Tyus Jones' contract, while Adams' deal is up in time for Morant to begin his rookie extension in 2023.
Given the salary Memphis is taking on, ideally there would have been more draft compensation involved. Still, the Grizzlies give themselves another chance to pick in the top 10, something they hope not to do with their own draft picks going forward. And even a pick from the Lakers in the 20s could be valuable for Memphis based on the quality players the front office has drafted late in the first round (Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke) and in the second round (Xavier Tillman) in recent seasons.