How good could the Phoenix Suns be with Chris Paul?
ESPN's Brian Windhorst and Tim Bontemps reported Tuesday that the Suns have had discussions about acquiring the future Hall of Fame point guard from the Oklahoma City Thunder. Phoenix might view Paul as the player needed to end a decadelong NBA playoff drought.
The Suns will take the momentum of an 8-0 finish in the bubble seeding games into the 2020-21 season. If they can add Paul at point guard, what kind of threat might they pose in the Western Conference?
Question 1: What should we take from 8-0?
The first question worth asking is how good Phoenix's existing roster is prior to a potential Paul trade. There are some reasons for skepticism about the Suns' strong finish in the bubble. Not only did their perfect record require some fortuitous bounces -- two missed go-ahead 3s by the Dallas Mavericks in the final 30 seconds of one win, Booker's game winner at the buzzer of another -- it also benefited from other teams having little to play for in the seeding games.
Among those to rest with seeding locked up? Paul, who played just 24 minutes (his second-lowest total all season) in a blowout loss that saw the Thunder sit starters Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as well as sixth man Dennis Schroder. Meanwhile, Phoenix coach Monty Williams played his starters regular minutes with no need to conserve energy for the playoffs.
Having noted that caveat, Phoenix still impressed in the bubble. The Suns' plus-12.9 net rating was best among all teams in seeding games by a wide margin (the Boston Celtics, at plus-8.3, were the only team within 6.8 points per 100 possessions of them) despite the fact that other West play-in contenders had similar advantages.
Phoenix also deserved some breaks after a hard-luck first five months of the season. The Suns were 13th in the West at 26-39 despite a minus-1.0 net rating that put them right behind Memphis and New Orleans (both also minus-1.0) for best among the contenders for the eighth playoff spot. Adding regular-season and seeding games, Phoenix's plus-0.2 point differential was far better than that of the two teams that battled in the play-in for eighth, Memphis and Portland (both minus-1.1 points per game).
Considering that the Suns had the NBA's sixth-youngest roster weighted by minutes played, this already looked like a team on the rise. Adding Paul would accelerate that development.
Question 2: How much will Phoenix give up?
It's hard to fully evaluate what the Suns might look like with Paul before knowing the return package. However, it seems likely that Kelly Oubre Jr. and Ricky Rubio would make up the bulk of the matching salary. If so, Phoenix might not suffer much in terms of the 2020-21 roster. After all, Paul would be replacing Rubio at point guard, and the Suns' 8-0 run came without Oubre, who was still sidelined after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery in March.
Certainly, the Suns would be better off with Oubre than without him. But in his absence, younger forwards Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson took advantage of the opportunity. Bridges, already one of the NBA's better defenders at age 24, looks like Phoenix's long-term starting small forward. Johnson, maligned as an overdraft at No. 11 overall, held his own defensively at both forward spots while providing valuable floor spacing as a 39% 3-point shooter during his rookie season.
Paul's name has been prominent in trade speculation, especially since the Thunder were eliminated from the playoffs by the Houston Rockets and parted ways with coach Billy Donovan -- signaling a potential rebuild after the Thunder's inspired run. And he would be a very intriguing target for teams such as the Milwaukee Bucks and the Philadelphia 76ers -- the latter now led in the front office by Paul's former general manager with Houston, Daryl Morey -- as both teams need stronger point guard play. The question is what those teams would give up, if they are indeed interested.
From the Thunder's standpoint, I'm not sure they would do much better in a Paul trade than getting back Oubre, Rubio and some future first-round pick -- more likely down the road rather than this year's pick, No. 10 overall. Oubre would have value before the trade deadline if Oklahoma City wanted to route him elsewhere, and Rubio's contract (two years and $34.8 million remaining) is fair for a starting point guard.
If Oubre and Rubio are both in the deal, the Suns could match salary by simply guaranteeing the contract of one of their players with non-guaranteed contracts (Cheick Diallo, Elie Okobo or bubble breakout contributor Cameron Payne) and including them in the deal. That's big because it would allow Phoenix to first use cap space (somewhere in the neighborhood of $17 million, depending on guarantees and the inclusion of this year's first-round pick) before trading for Paul.
With Paul in hand, the Suns would surely target an upgrade on restricted free agent Dario Saric at power forward. Targets could include Paul's Oklahoma City teammate Gallinari, Davis Bertans from the Washington Wizards, and either Jerami Grant or Paul Millsap of the Denver Nuggets. Adding Bertans or Gallinari as well as Paul would make Phoenix one of the league's most dangerous offensive teams, while Grant or Millsap would shore up the Suns' defense.
Question 3: Which CP3 would Phoenix get?
When the Thunder acquired Paul from the Rockets for Russell Westbrook, the question was how much Oklahoma City might have to give up to get out of the final two years and $85-plus million left on his contract (including a player option for 2021-22). A bounce-back season with the Thunder dramatically changed our perception of Paul's game and his value.
More than anything else, Paul was simply able to stay healthy after better a series of soft-tissue injuries dating back to his days with the LA Clippers. He missed 17 games because of a hamstring strain in 2018-19, seven because of groin and hamstring issues during the 2017-18 regular season (plus the final two games of Houston's Western Conference finals loss to the Golden State Warriors) and seven with a hamstring strain in 2016-17.
Adding other, more random injuries, Paul had missed an average of 23 games between 2016-17 and 2018-19 before playing 70 out of 72 in Oklahoma City -- missing one following the tragic death of friend Kobe Bryant and the final game of the regular season.
Once upon a time, players went to the Suns to get healthy. But their highly regarded performance specialist, Aaron Nelson, was poached by the New Orleans Pelicans during the summer of 2019. Phoenix ranked in the middle of the pack in games lost to injury during the new staff's first season.
As long as Paul is physically able, his elite combination of skill and basketball knowledge isn't likely to fade. At the same time, players don't typically get much healthier in their mid-30s. Realistically, the Suns should probably expect Paul to miss a chunk of time while performing at a level somewhere in between his past two seasons, which saw him go from 8.2 wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric with the Rockets to 12.0 with the Thunder. A 10-WARP season from Paul would still be a major upgrade on Rubio, who produced 5.7 WARP during his first season in Phoenix.
At this stage of his career, Paul looks like a good fit next to All-Star Booker in the Suns' backcourt. A few years ago, Paul was among the league's most ball-dominant players, ranking second in time of possession per game in both 2014-15 and 2015-16 according to tracking data on NBA Advanced Stats. That changed when Paul played alongside James Harden in Houston, and as part of multi-point guard lineups last season, Paul actually handled the ball less total time (6.2 minutes per game) than Rubio (6.8).
One big question I have about Paul in Phoenix is whether the Suns have enough reliable ball handlers to step in if he misses time. Payne impressed in the seeding games after being signed out of the G League, and Phoenix also has 2019 first-round pick Ty Jerome and Jevon Carter -- who played mostly off the ball in the bubble -- capable of running the point.
Given the depth of the Western Conference, I don't think adding Paul would make the Suns legitimate contenders to win the West, even if they can upgrade at power forward in free agency. However, a season similar to the one CP3's Oklahoma City team enjoyed last season is more reasonable. Given how long Phoenix has languished in the lottery, the prospect of getting back to the playoffs and threatening to win a series would surely look appealing.