The Detroit Pistons' rebuilding process was accelerated on the night of the lottery.
Detroit already had a strong foundation for its rebuild led by Jerami Grant and last year's rookies, Killian Hayes, Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart. Now the Pistons have the No. 1 overall pick and are expected to draft Cade Cunningham.
Over the next month, Detroit will have to come to a consensus that Cunningham is the right player at No. 1. The Pistons will also face important offseason decisions on their three second-round picks and the restricted free agency of Hamidou Diallo.
Troy Weaver and the draft
When GM Troy Weaver addressed the media after the season, he mentioned how his Pistons team compared to the Oklahoma City Thunder team he'd previously worked for.
"I have the same feelings here that I had back in the '08-09 season there," he said. "The optimism is not in the record because the record stinks, but we'll continue to fight, claw, scratch, bite -- whatever we've got to do to get out of this hole. We're going to continue to do it together and we're going to be unwavering in getting there."
That Thunder team finished the season 23-59 but had two young players named Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The next season, they added James Harden via the draft and 2008 pick Serge Ibaka came over from Spain.
The Pistons don't have a Durant or Westbrook on the roster, but they do have a promising young trio in Bey, Hayes, Stewart and now the likely No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski has reported that the Pistons will be the only team Cunningham meets with during the draft process, and scouts have tabbed him as the likely No. 1 pick all season long.
Can he lead this young Pistons team to the same kind of success Weaver saw in Oklahoma City? After adding Harden and Ibaka, the Thunder jumped from a 23-win team to a 50-win team. Two years later they were in the NBA Finals.
That's a tall task for a team that hasn't won a playoff game since 2008. Expecting a player who will be 20 years old when the season starts -- even one as talented as Cunningham -- to come in and immediately make the Pistons contenders is unrealistic. Weaver has acknowledged that despite landing the top pick, the rebuild is still an unfinished product.
"Obviously we get to add another wing player to the restoration process," Weaver said. "We're excited to be in this position. But it means that we've got a lot of work to do and we're going to be diligent about it."
Jerami Grant
When the Pistons signed Grant to a three-year, $60 million deal last offseason, a number of people around the league questioned the deal. Not only had Grant never truly performed at that level before, but he didn't seem to fit the timeline of the Pistons' rebuild.
Still, the foundation for any rebuilding process has to start somewhere, and instead of resting solely on the principles of drafting and developing, Detroit took the opportunity to add a player it saw as having value.
And, although the Pistons finished the season with a 20-52 record, Grant went from averaging 12 points per game as a reserve in Denver as sixth man to starting all 54 games he played this season, averaging a career-high 22.3 points and scoring 20-plus points in 35 games.
What was deemed an overpay last offseason actually saw Grant outperform his $19 million salary by $8 million according to ProFitX. For this upcoming season, Grant is projected to be worth $28.8 million in salary while collecting only $20 million.
It would be easy now for the Pistons to cash in on the high value of Grant and trade him for first-round picks and multiple players that fit within his salary, a scenario that could have happened at the March trade deadline. A team like the Knicks would gladly move picks Nos. 19 and 21 to have Grant on their roster.
But considering that Detroit now has the No. 1 pick this year along with a strong contingent of recent first-rounders, the goal should be to continue to build on the progress Grant made last season.
"We're going to double down," GM Troy Weaver said after the season. "We're not going to change anything. We're going to continue to bring in like-minded people. We won't get cute. You lay the foundation and then you waver or go astray or look for what's popular, we're not going to do that. We'll double down on our foundation and what we're doing."
Hamidou Diallo
Call the trade for Diallo at the deadline a six-week free-agent audition. It gave the Pistons an opportunity to learn whether they had a player they could build around or move on from, and the only true cost to the organization was a 2027 second-round pick that was acquired from Houston (Svi Mykhailiuk, whom the Pistons sent to OKC in the trade, is also set to become a free agent).
Weaver has had an upfront view of Diallo, having been part of a Thunder front office that drafted the guard in 2019, and knows that he is far from a finished product.
"I told him a lot of players don't get this opportunity to take the bull by the horn," Weaver said after the trade. "He has that chance now to come in and really turn his career into a huge positive. He's been teetering up and down in OKC, injuries here, the different construct of the team. Now he's here with a young group. Hopefully we can get him, talk to him and continue him with the group."
In 20 games in Detroit, Diallo shot a career-high 39% from 3, had a career-high 35-point performance in a loss to Charlotte and solidified that the low-risk investment was justified. He is a restricted free agent and at the minimum the Pistons will tender him a $2.1 million qualifying offer.
The hard part is gauging a starting salary for Diallo based on his three-year body of work in Oklahoma City and the 20 games in a Pistons uniform. According to ProFitX, the starting salary for Diallo projects to be right at the $9.5 million midlevel exception.
Teams such as New York and San Antonio have cap space, and Detroit will need to decide the price point when it comes to matching an offer sheet. The likelihood is that Diallo will see offers from teams in the midlevel range, making the Pistons' decision to match easy.
Offseason cap breakdown
The Pistons have only $54 million in guaranteed money but are at the salary cap when factoring in a league-high $33.7 million in dead cap space and the top overall pick. Detroit is in position to have its full $9.5 million midlevel and $3.7 million biannual exception available. They can also exceed the cap to re-sign restricted free agent Diallo.
Detroit is expected to be one of the top teams in 2022-23 when it comes to cap flexibility.
Team needs
Starting and backup shooting guard
Resources to build the roster
The draft: first-rounder and three second-round picks
Exceptions: $9.5 million midlevel and $3.7 million biannual
The recent draft picks: Hayes, Bey, Doumbouya and Stewart
Cash: $5.8M to send out or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• The Pistons have until Aug. 1 to tender qualifying offers to Diallo ($2.1 million) and Dennis Smith Jr. ($7.0 million), making them restricted free agents. Players have the option to sign the qualifying offer at any point. The offer can be pulled without permission up until mid-August, which would make the player an unrestricted free agent. Smith, the No. 9 pick in the 2017 draft, was acquired as part of the Derrick Rose trade with New York and appeared in 20 games, including nine starts. He missed the last 18 games of the season with left knee inflammation.
• Cory Joseph has $2.4 million of his $12.6 million salary for 2021-22 guaranteed, and the balance becomes guaranteed if he is not waived before Aug. 2. Joseph played the best basketball in his career after he was acquired from Sacramento at the trade deadline. The guard had career highs in minutes (26.4), field goal percentage (50.6%), 3-point percentage (36.8%), assists (5.5) and points (12.0). In 11 games as starter, Joseph averaged 13.1 points and 6 assists. Even with Detroit likely selecting Cunningham, Joseph has value on the court and gives Detroit trade flexibility closer to the deadline.
• Rodney McGruder originally had a July 15 guaranteed date on his $5 million contract. The likelihood is that date will be adjusted to mid-August, due to the pandemic. McGruder missed the last 32 games of the season with an elbow injury. Although keeping McGruder would give Detroit an expiring contract to use in a trade later on, it would also put the Pistons in a numbers crunch with regards to their roster. Including their first-round pick, the Pistons would have 14 players under contract before free agency begins.
• Tyler Cook has an Aug. 11 guaranteed date on his $1.7 million contract. Cook averaged 23.2 minutes, 9.4 points and 5 rebounds in the last five games of the season.
Restrictions
• Mason Plumlee has a 10% trade bonus. The bonus is currently valued at $1.7 million.
• Up until the start of the 2021-22 calendar year, Detroit can accept up to $1 million in cash. It can also send out only up to $5.25 million.
• Because the first-round pick owed to Houston is protected until 2027, Detroit is not allowed to trade a first in any season.
• Cook's and McGruder's salaries are non-guaranteed and do not count as outgoing salary. Only $2.4 million of the $12.6 million on Joseph's contract counts as outgoing salary in a trade.
Extension eligible
• Joseph and McGruder are extension eligible if their contracts are guaranteed.
The draft
The Pistons had owed Houston a first-round pick this season but retained it when they finished in the lottery.
The pick remains top-16 protected in 2022. The protection actually increases to top 18 in 2023 and 2024, before dropping to top 13 in 2025, top 11 in 2026 and top nine in 2027. If it is not conveyed by then, the Pistons would send a 2027 second to the Rockets.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Detroit selecting in July:
No. 1 (own): Cunningham, PG, Oklahoma State
No. 37 (via TOR): Daishen Nix, PG/SG, G League Ignite
No. 42 (via CHA): Greg Brown, PF, Texas
No. 52 (via LAL): Isaiah Todd, PF, G League Ignite
GM Troy Weaver was active last November during the draft. Besides drafting Hayes with their own first, the Pistons acquired the draft rights to Bey, Stewart and Saben Lee. Bey and Stewart were recently named to the All-Rookie first and second teams, respectively.