What's the most attractive NBA coaching job available right now?
With Wednesday's reports from ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski that neither Scott Brooks (Washington Wizards) nor Stan Van Gundy (New Orleans Pelicans) will return as his team's head coach, one-fifth of the league's teams are now searching for replacements on the sideline. That group includes three playoff teams: the Wizards, Boston Celtics and Portland Trail Blazers.
Because those teams are looking for different types of candidates, possible head coaches won't always -- or ever -- have their choice of jobs. Still, let's rank each opening based on potential of the current roster, front-office stability and path forward, with a particular emphasis on the new ones that were created today in New Orleans and Washington, D.C.
6. Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are replacing Terry Stotts, one of the longest tenured and most successful coaches in team history. (Only the legendary Dr. Jack Ramsay won more games as a head coach in Portland.) President of basketball operations Neil Olshey said recently that the Blazers' first-round loss, their fourth in the past five seasons, was "not a product of the roster." And, unless you happen to be Chauncey Billups, star Damian Lillard is on record as wanting someone else as coach. (Lillard endorsed Billups and Jason Kidd before the latter withdrew his name from the coaching search.)
There's certainly upside in Portland. The Blazers reached the conference finals just two years ago, and Olshey was more accurate in saying this roster should have been better than 29th defensively -- particularly if a new coach gets better defensive options in the frontcourt than key reserves Carmelo Anthony and Enes Kanter.
Still, this feels a lot like where the Houston Rockets were when searching for a new coach last offseason. If Portland doesn't improve quickly, the next changes might be a Lillard trade and a change in the front office, both of which would imperil a vulnerable new head coach.
5. Washington Wizards
Although Brooks' replacement isn't stepping into the same kind of expectations that Olshey created in Portland, there are some similarities between these two situations. With Bradley Beal a year away from potentially hitting unrestricted free agency and fellow All-Star Russell Westbrook turning 33 in November, there's intense urgency for Washington to win now with the potential of further changes if that doesn't happen.
On the plus side, the next Wizards coach inherits a team that seemed to figure things out over the course of the season with the benefit of better health for Westbrook. Washington closed the season on a 15-5 tear to reach the play-in tournament as the eighth seed, posting the NBA's fifth-best net rating (plus-6.9 points per 100 possessions) over that span, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
There won't be the same learning curve for this Wizards roster next season, one that was lengthened by an early outbreak of COVID-19 that sidelined the team for nearly two weeks in January. Washington's top five players in minutes per game during the playoffs are all under contract for 2021-22, leaving centers Alex Len and Robin Lopez and guards Raul Neto and Ish Smith as the team's biggest question marks.
As a result, the Wizards are poised for a better campaign as long as their stars can stay healthy.
4. Orlando Magic
Remarkably, there's more coaching stability among the NBA's have-nots than the league's contenders. Orlando is the only team of the seven that failed to reach at least 30 wins in the shortened 72-game season searching for a new head coach, after agreeing with Steve Clifford that someone else should oversee the team's latest rebuilding process. His replacement should get time to develop a competitive team.
The question here is whether the Magic can find a centerpiece of their build this time around. Orlando hasn't drafted a player who reached the All-Star Game with the Magic since taking both Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson in 2004. If Orlando can stay in the top five of this year's draft -- it has about a two-thirds chance entering next week's lottery -- that kind of talent could be waiting.
3. Indiana Pacers
In terms of job security, the Pacers' opening looks ideal. Indiana surely won't want to search for a fourth coach in as many years after Nate Bjorkgren lasted just one season as Nate McMillan's replacement. The next Pacers head coach will almost certainly inherit a healthier roster.
The team's projected starters for 2021-22 (guards Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert, forwards Domantas Sabonis and T.J. Warren and center Myles Turner) missed a combined 143 games due to injury, and both Turner and Warren were unavailable for Indiana's loss in the play-in tournament to the Wizards.
The downside is that there isn't much upside. The Pacers' projected starters are all 25 or older, meaning there's little likelihood of the internal growth needed for Indiana to become a contender in the Eastern Conference. Still, just getting back to the playoffs and being competitive in the first round will look good after a disappointing 2020-21 campaign.
2. New Orleans Pelicans
Certainly, New Orleans is the most intriguing coaching opening so far this offseason. In 20-year-old All-Star Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have the kind of franchise building block other lottery teams are aspiring to find, and there are other young pieces in place on the roster.
The trick will be fitting them together, particularly at the defensive end of the court. The defensive upgrade New Orleans was hoping Van Gundy would provide never materialized. In fact, the Pelicans dropped from 21st in defensive rating in 2019-20 under Alvin Gentry to 23rd this season. As a result, New Orleans couldn't even reach the play-in tournament despite Williamson staying healthy for the bulk of the regular season before a metacarpal fracture sidelined him the last six games.
In the short term, the Pelicans' roster flexibility is a concern. Taking on Eric Bledsoe's $18.1 million salary for 2021-22 and signing Steven Adams to a two-year, $35 million extension -- which seems inflated given the market rate for centers -- has left New Orleans with a little more than $30 million to spend re-signing restricted free agents Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart while staying below the luxury tax line. Losing Ball, another young building block, would be painful for the Pelicans' next head coach.
Despite those concerns, any coach would love to work with a young player as talented as Williamson. If he takes another step in his development, New Orleans could be in the thick of the West playoff race next season.
1. Boston Celtics
As underwhelming as the Celtics were this season, they're a clear choice as the most favorable landing spot for a coach among the current openings. Start with Boston's remarkable stability in the front office and on the sideline. This will be just the Celtics' third coach in an 18-season span -- as many as the Pacers and Pelicans will have in the last three. And neither of Boston's last two coaching changes has been a firing, as Doc Rivers sought a trade to the LA Clippers, while Brad Stevens stepped down in order to replace long-tenured Danny Ainge as president of basketball operations.
Better yet, the Celtics have their long-term core in place in wings Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Putting the right pieces around them will be a challenge for Stevens, but Boston has already done the hard work of finding young All-Stars. And with Tatum just beginning a rookie extension while Brown enters the second season of his four-year deal, the Celtics don't face the same pressure to avoid them leaving as with older stars.
Replacing Stevens while reporting to him will be an interesting situation for Boston's new head coach. Nonetheless, the Celtics should have their pick of options.