It has been a whirlwind in the NBA news cycle Wednesday, but the news that Kawhi Leonard is likely out for the remainder of this playoff series against the Utah Jazz is arguably the biggest development of the day. After losing the first two games of the series, Leonard and the LA Clippers held court at home and suddenly looked like a threat to win it all.
Leonard's exquisite play this postseason has made him the MVP of the Western Conference playoffs. Along with Kevin Durant in the East, Leonard was playing better than anyone else left in these playoffs. He has the highest PER in the postseason at 30.4. So if Leonard can't play due to his knee injury, the Clippers are no longer contenders. It's that simple.
As a scorer, Leonard was combining volume and efficiency at ridiculously high levels. In the first round, he became the first player since Shaquille O'Neal in 2000 to both score 200 points and shoot 60% or better in a single series.
He's been consistently unstoppable, just check out this list.
But here's the thing: Unlike the other legends on that list, Leonard is doing this while taking tons of jumpers. When he entered the league, he did not have a reliable jump shot. Now he does, and calling it "reliable" is an understatement.
Leonard has become one of the best midrange scorers on the planet. While these shots are generally frowned upon in the analytics era, that frown does not specifically apply to the select group of sharpshooters who can hit these shots at the highest rates. Leonard was converting a ridiculous 66% of his midrangers this postseason -- on pace to be the highest field goal percentage on midrange shots in a single postseason over the past 25 years (minimum 30 FGA).
All told, Leonard was giving the Clippers 30.4 points per game at a very efficient clip, but he has also been the team's most important catalyst all season. Good things happen when Leonard has the ball in his hands. No team averaged more points per play in half court by a player bringing the ball up than the Clippers and Kawhi this season, according to Second Spectrum.
Ty Lue's offense is going to greatly miss Leonard's ability to create, especially on drives. According to Second Spectrum, Leonard is averaging 1.18 points per direct drive this season, third best in the NBA when including the playoffs (minimum 200 drives). Leonard's 4.4 assists per game ranked second on the team.
Oh, and then there's the defense. Leonard is a two-time Defensive Player of the Year for a reason; he's one of the best wing defenders the NBA has ever seen. Like Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan, Leonard has repeatedly led his team to wins on the league's biggest stages with his lockdown defense.
His ability to shut down superstars is arguably his signature trait. His defense on LeBron James in the 2014 Finals was the main reason he won the Finals MVP that year, and when Nick Nurse decided to put him on Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 3 of the 2019 Eastern Conference finals, the Bucks fell apart, and the Raptors won four straight games en route to the title.
That elite defense was a huge reason the Clippers erased a two-game deficit in Round 1 against the Dallas Mavericks. Nobody can stop Luka Doncic, but Leonard did a great job of slowing him down, reducing both his scoring volume and his shooting efficiency.
With Leonard on the shelf, the Clippers are now short-handed against one of the best perimeter offenses in the league (even if the Jazz themselves are short-handed without point guard Mike Conley Jr.). Utah is among the most prolific perimeter offenses in NBA history. In the regular season, the Jazz were the first team in NBA history to average at least 50 points per game on 3-point shots. The Rockets never did that. The Warriors never did that. But the Jazz do, and whether it's slowing down Donovan Mitchell, deflecting passes or closing out other shooters, the absence of Leonard on defense is going to be noticeable on the scoreboard. Expect Mitchell, who struggled in Game 4 while playing with a sore left ankle, to have easier driving opportunities, and expect his teammates to enjoy a few more open looks from downtown.
When Leonard didn't play against the Jazz back on Feb. 17, the Clippers lost by 18 points, their fourth-worst loss of the regular season. It was also one of eight regular-season games in which the Clippers failed to score 100 points.
If that's a harbinger of things to come this week, the Clippers are doomed. Injuries are a fact of life in pro basketball, but it's also fair to say this postseason has been marred by them at unprecedented levels. Before this morning's news about Leonard, a total of seven All-Star players had already missed playoff games this year, the most in a season in NBA history.
Add Leonard to that depressing list, and add the Clippers to a growing list of title contenders likely to have their postseason run derailed by an untimely injury to one of their best players. As the league limps toward the finish line of an unprecedented season, so do many of its superstars.