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ESPN Senior Writer- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
A year ago, there was serious debate whether Zion Williamson or Ja Morant was the best rookie, measured either by what they'd done so far in the NBA or what they would go on to do. A year later, that debate seems to be settled. Though Morant ended up taking home last season's Rookie of the Year honors, Williamson -- the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft -- has reestablished himself atop the class of second-year players.
Taking into account what we've seen over two abbreviated seasons -- one of which was interrupted for four months -- we've ranked the NBA's second-year players by their long-term outlook.
Note: Find each writer's top-10 rankings at the bottom of this article.
MORE: NBA's best 25 under 25
Zion in a class of his own
Pelton: I think we can save the mystery here -- Zion Williamson is our early No. 1 prospect among second-year players. He finished No. 2 in our rankings of the top prospects under 25 for a second consecutive year and even closed the gap a bit on Luka Doncic in my mind, separating himself from the rest of the field.
We've talked a lot about the evolution of "Point Zion" as Williamson makes plays this season with a spread floor and the ball in his hands. What maybe hasn't gotten enough credit is his durability. After missing extended periods due to knee injuries both at Duke and to start his rookie season, there was inevitable concern about whether Zion's frame could hold up long-term. I'm knocking on wood furiously as I type this, but Williamson has missed just five games this season while playing full starter's minutes (33.1 per game). RJ Barrett is the only second-year player who's played more minutes this season.
Provided that health continues, how good can Williamson become?
Schmitz: Alongside Doncic, Williamson is clearly the future of the NBA and should win multiple MVP awards over the course of his career as long as he can stay healthy.
I took a lot of heat for saying Williamson would eventually be the best small-ball center in the NBA on Get Up! prior to the 2019 NBA draft. He's played far more as a mismatch 4 than a ballhandling 5 like I envisioned, but it turns out that even calling him the best small-ball big -- instead of the best player in the NBA someday -- was selling him short.
I think Doncic's game will probably age a little better than Zion's because of his shooting ability and the fact that he relies less on his explosiveness than Williamson. With that said, you could argue that Williamson is the most physically dominant player we've seen since Shaq, and the fact that the world is now seeing his playmaking ability just adds another layer to his potential greatness. Point Zion is something we talked about at length during the pre-draft process.
Even during his high school career, he showed remarkable court vision for his size. After the 2017 Adidas Nations, I wrote that Williamson was much more than just a dunker, and he's showing that in a big way in New Orleans, even finding gaps in the defense while playing alongside paint-based centers. If New Orleans can ever pair him with a stretch 5 like Giannis has in Brook Lopez, he'll be unguardable.
I am hoping we get to see Williamson in a playoff series sometime over the next few years, because that's where I think he'll be more inclined to show off some of the defensive versatility that caught my eye at Duke. He was the ultimate competitor in Durham, and I remember being at multiple games where I simply closed my laptop and watched in awe of his motor. Defense -- on top of his shooting -- is the next step.
Who's next?
Schmitz: The debate for some during the 2019 pre-draft process was between Ja Morant and Barrett. I thought at the time that Morant was the superior prospect because of his explosiveness, creativity, court vision and star quality. KP, where did you stand on that debate at the time and do you still feel that way now? Has Barrett changed your perception of him at all with his play this season?
Pelton: He's certainly changed my perception, but he had a large gap to close after being sixth on my list when we did this exercise last March. I thought Morant was in a different tier from Barrett entering the draft, so to me the real question is not how Morant compares to Barrett but to Michael Porter Jr., who was third on both of our lists last year and finished one spot ahead of Morant in our top 25 under 25.
If I had to win a game today, Porter Jr. would undoubtedly be the pick. He's having an incredible offensive season, making 62.5% of his 2-point attempts and 43% of his 3s (on 5.7 per game) while using plays at an average rate -- something that's sure to go up the rest of the year with Jamal Murray sidelined. And while Porter Jr. will never be confused for Michael Cooper, he's doing a better job of avoiding major defensive gaffes. As a result, the Denver Nuggets have performed much better with Porter Jr. on the court, even after accounting for the strength of their starting five.
So why Morant second? First, he's more than a year younger at a position where players tend to develop and peak later than on the wings. In particular, Morant's ability to become an above-average starting point guard is almost certainly contingent on honing his 3-point shooting. After making a surprising 33.5% of his 3s as a rookie, Morant is down to 28% this season, a big reason he's been more of a volume scorer while shouldering a heavier load in the absence of Jaren Jackson Jr.
Second, the potential for reinjury to Porter Jr.'s back always looms despite the fact that he hasn't missed a single game due to injury this season. (Porter Jr. did miss nine while subject to the league's health and safety protocols.) As a result, I have him third among sophomores behind Morant.
Mike, how do you see that comparison and has Barrett progressed enough since the top 25 under 25 to join this discussion?
Schmitz: I still see Morant as a superior prospect to both Porter and Barrett. A lot of his impact goes beyond the actual numbers. Beloved by his teammates and coaches dating back to his days growing up in Dalzell, South Carolina, Morant has installed an identity and sense of belief within the Grizzlies organization.
As a player, I always compared Morant to some type of Trae Young-De'Aaron Fox hybrid during the pre-draft process because of his mix of playmaking and explosiveness. His numbers are fairly in line with Fox's second-year stats on a more competitive team, but both Young and Fox were ahead as shooters at the same stage, which as you mentioned is Morant's clear swing skill.
While the Grizzlies are 7.9 points per possession better on offense with Morant on the floor according to CleaningTheGlass.com, they're also giving up 6.0 more points per possession than when he sits. His defensive impact was one of Morant's lone question marks coming into the NBA. Yet, with the game on the line he's as competitive as they come, and once the Grizzlies become a playoff regular, we'll likely see more from Morant on the defensive end of the floor. I ranked him fourth in my 25 under 25 list in 2020 during his stellar rookie season, and I think as he eventually regains Jaren Jackson Jr. and rediscovers his shooting stroke, Morant will evolve into a perennial All-Star, earning the respect of his peers for his unshakable demeanor in the process.
I prefer Morant's more dynamic style to both Porter and Barrett, but you have to give Barrett a ton of credit for the steps he's taken this season while buying into being the Knicks' No. 2 option alongside Julius Randle -- which is something scouts questioned he would be willing to do given his score-hungry style at Duke. Thanks to the emergence of Randle -- along with skilled guard Immanuel Quickley -- Barrett seems to have simplified his game, playing more off spot-ups than being asked to create. While pick-and-roll is still a huge part of Barrett's game, his lack of high-end quickness isn't nearly as limiting against a scrambling defense with all eyes on Randle.
Barrett posted an effective field goal percentage of just 48.3% on catch-and-shoot jumpers as a rookie according to Second Spectrum data. That number is now up to 66.5% on almost three attempts per game, which has been a huge driver in his success. Despite the fact that he's already played almost 2,000 career minutes, Barrett doesn't turn 21 until mid-June and should continue to improve his efficiency as his game matures.
Still, I'd slot him at 4, right behind Porter. The 2018 draftee is a 6-foot-11 microwave scorer who can get hot out of a variety of different actions. Only two starters in the NBA are averaging at least 22 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes while shooting over 60% from 2 and 40% from 3: Porter and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are a ridiculous 9.6 points per possession better offensively with Porter on the floor according to CleaningTheGlass. As you noted, the defense is still a work in progress, as is the passing, but you could argue Porter is the best scorer on this list behind Zion.
The fifth spot is where things open up a little bit and you could go a variety of directions. Where did you land?
Pelton: I don't think Knicks fans need a reminder that Barrett wasn't the fourth sophomore on my top 25 under 25 ballot. Instead, I went with San Antonio Spurs wing Keldon Johnson, who's broken through as a full-time starter this season after starting just one game as a rookie. When we adjust for the heavy minutes Barrett has played and look at stats per 36 minutes for both players, they're much more similar:
Despite his dramatic improvement as an outside shooter, which is huge for his long-term outlook, Barrett has still been less efficient in his larger role. We can trace that to his low shooting percentages on self-created shots with at least two seconds of touch time according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats. Barrett has an eFG% of 45% on self-created shots, accounting for the additional value of 3s, while Johnson is at 48%. And self-created shots still make up 60% of Barrett's attempts.
We've seen Barrett look like a strong role player much of this season. The question, as you noted, is whether he'll always want to be something more than that. As a result, I lean Johnson.
Schmitz: I actually opted to go with Johnson at No. 5 because of his combination of age (21.5 years old), improved shooting (38% from 3 over his last 10 games), downhill slashing, underrated playmaking and defensive toughness. He's someone I also considered for my 25 under 25 rankings but he just missed the cut. As you know, these 3-and-D style wings who are willing to play that role and consistently bring it in the energy department aren't easy to find, and Johnson is doing exactly that on an exciting young Spurs team that features six 26-and-under contributors in Johnson, Dejounte Murray (24.5), Derrick White (26.8), Jakob Poeltl (25.5), Devin Vassell (20.6) and Lonnie Walker IV (22.3).
Johnson -- the RSCI No. 12 player in the Class of 2018 -- was actually one of my favorite prospects in his high school class thanks to a lot of the traits we see from him now on an NBA floor. We raved about him after a USA Basketball camp in October 2017 and he entered his freshman season in the top 10 of our mock draft. Back then, Johnson was ultra-aggressive attacking the rim with long strides and a big reach, while showcasing some playmaking ability, shooting potential and defensive versatility. Above all else, he played with great spirit. So how did Johnson fall all the way to the Spurs at 29?
Johnson's game looked fairly ordinary on a cramped college court playing with a non-shooting point guard like Ashton Hagans and an interior-oriented big in Reid Travis. Tyler Herro spaced the floor at the off guard spot and P.J. Washington had improved from 3, but the limited spacing along with the Johnson's still-evolving confidence as a shooter and somewhat rudimentary handle led talent evaluators (myself included) to wonder if he was just a run-of-the-mill rotational wing rather than the top-10 pick we billed him as heading into the season.
The Spurs did a great job of taking situational factors into account and looking at Johnson's full résumé prior to college, and now they're reaping the benefits.
Filling out the top 10
Pelton: The tricky part of these rankings is comparing players at different stages of their careers. To me, Matisse Thybulle vs. Luguentz Dort is the toughest debate. To win a game today, I'm going with Thybulle, who's putting up steals and blocks at historic rates just as he did in Mike Hopkins' 2-3 zone at Washington. Thybulle leads the league in steal rate and is on track to become just the third player in NBA history with a steal rate of better than 3.0 per 100 opponent plays and a block rate of better than 4% of opponent 2-point attempts in more than 1,000 minutes, joining Nerlens Noel and Gerald Wallace.
That kind of disruptive defense tends to be undervalued relative to Dort's in-your-face stopper play, and it's intriguing to note the disparity between their defensive ratings in NBAshotcharts.com's luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus. Accounting for teammates and opponents on the court, Thybulle's plus-0.8 rating ranks just outside the league's top 100 over the last three years combined while Dort (minus-0.8) is outside the top 600.
Still, Dort is more than two years younger and showing increasing ability to create his own shot. Based on the improvement he has left, I'm going Dort sixth and Thybulle seventh.
I don't feel comfortable dropping Herro any further than eighth, despite a disappointing second-year campaign after his impressive run in the playoffs as a rookie. For my last two spots, I considered Brandon Clarke (another 24-year-old contributor to a competitive team) and De'Andre Hunter (a clear top-10 sophomore based on his play before knee surgery, which has troubling long-term implications given his knee has again sidelined him following his return) before landing on Cameron Johnson and Talen Horton-Tucker.
Johnson's ability to space the floor (39% career on 3s) while defending either forward spot has been a revelation, so I think he's a top-10 prospect despite already being 25. Horton-Tucker is at the opposite end of the extreme. The youngest player in the NBA as a rookie, Horton-Tucker has shown promise by growing into a rotation role for the Lakers at age 20, setting up a fascinating foray into restricted free agency this summer.
I still want to see a larger sample of strong shooting from Terance Mann, who's making 42% of his 3s on just 74 attempts, before considering him for the top 10. And Kevin Porter Jr. is tough to evaluate. The Cleveland Cavaliers moved on from him quickly after a surprisingly effective rookie campaign, and he's been asked to play a high-volume role with the Houston Rockets.
Schmitz: I also left off Hunter because of the knee injury despite his scorching start to the season. He started the year with 17 straight games in double figures, highlighted by a 33-point, 4-rebound, 4-assist game against Milwaukee. At 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan he clearly has the tools and two-way play every team is looking for in a combo forward. A fully healthy Hunter could be ranked as high as fifth on this list, but I'm with you in wait-and-see mode.
I'm a longtime advocate of Darius Garland, whom I ranked fifth last year and have slotted sixth this season. He'll always be behind the eight ball physically and still has a long ways to go defensively, but he's improved his 3-point percentage from 36% to 40% on similar volume, bumped his assist-to-turnover ratio from 1.5:1 to 2:1, and is starting to show more of the flashes of talent that made him a top-five pick after just five games at Vanderbilt. Garland's talent really popped during the 37-point, 7-assist game against the Spurs, and he's starting to look much more comfortable and confident playing in traffic thanks to his feathery floater game. He's shooting 56% at the rim this season -- up from 42% last year -- and has the type of skill-based game that should age well in the NBA, so long as he can survive physically.
I'm also not ready to sell my Tyler Herro stock and ranked him seventh. I have to think that his 3 ball will come back to life (33% this year), and he's shown enough talent as a dynamic shotmaker, secondary playmaker and energizer to think that Herro will eventually thrive in a starting role as he refines his game.
Horton-Tucker is one of the most fascinating young players in the NBA to me, and I ranked him ahead of both Dort and Thybulle because I think he has a chance to be more than just a role player someday due to his unique tools and ability to create offense out of both pick- and-roll and isolation. I loved Horton-Tucker's talent when I first evaluated him in July 2018 at a USA Basketball camp that also featured names like Cole Anthony, Tyrese Maxey, Coby White, Kevin Porter Jr., Jaden McDaniels and Kira Lewis Jr. Horton-Tucker was one of the best players there, handling the ball like a point guard, creating for others, knocking down step-backs, putting pressure on the rim and even defending with energy more than we've seen in the NBA and college.
Horton-Tucker's confidence -- along with his skill set -- can be his superpower if channeled correctly, and I'd be interested to see what type of numbers he'd be putting up if he was getting consistent volume on a developing team like OKC.
I rounded out my top 10 with defensive stalwarts Dort and Thybulle. I'll never be able to wrap my head around how Dort went undrafted. From his monster games at the BioSteel All-Canada game to his appearances at the Nike Hoop Summit and Adidas EuroCamp, Dort was far from a mystery prospect. He spent much of his freshman season at Arizona State in the first-round of our mock draft, won Pac-12 Freshman of the Year and had the body every NBA team looks for in a guard. Still, for as much as we liked him, if you would have told me Dort was shooting over 35% from 3 on over six attempts per game and scoring 42 points in 36 minutes against the Utah Jazz, I wouldn't have believed you. While some of his production is a product of the Thunder's situation, he still looks the part of a starter on a bottom-tier playoff team or one of the first guards off the bench on a contender. If he ends up being some version of Marcus Smart in the future, then it would be fair to put Dort as high as 5 on this list.
As for Thybulle, I've always struggled with just how reluctant he is to even take open shots, and at already 24 years old I'm not sure that's a hurdle he'll ever fully get over. But to your point, the defensive playmaking is special, and he deserves a spot in the top 10 because of his winning impact on a title contender. In addition to the names you already mentioned, I'll also be tracking the progress of former lottery picks like White, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, Cam Reddish and Romeo Langford, and first-rounders like Nickeil Alexander-Walker.