When the Western Conference coaches voted earlier this week to make Zion Williamson the fourth-youngest player in NBA history to play in an All-Star Game, they were confirming something that's been obvious over the past month: The No. 1 pick of the 2019 draft is making the leap to stardom.
After a rookie season hindered by injury and conditioning issues and a slow start to the 2020-21 campaign under new head coach Stan Van Gundy, Zion is figuring out how to translate his prodigious talents into impact for the New Orleans Pelicans. And Van Gundy's move to put the ball in Williamson's hands more frequently as a playmaker has unlocked new facets of his game.
Given Williamson is still just 20 and has played fewer career games than any first-time All-Star since Blake Griffin was the most recent rookie to play in the game in 2011, the question remains: How good can Zion get?
Offense has risen with Zion
It's hard to believe in hindsight that just a month and a half ago the question was whether Williamson's development had stalled out, something my ESPN colleague Brian Windhorst discussed in a column. It was a reasonable thing to wonder given that over his first 10 games of the 2020-21 season, Zion's stats actually declined from his performance as a rookie. But breaking his play into 10-game segments this season shows rapid growth:
That development shows no sign of abating. The five best game scores of Williamson's career have all come in the past month, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Perhaps as important, Zion's productivity has made the Pelicans' offense increasingly difficult to stop. Let's break down their team offensive rating by the same segments.
Over the last 10 games, only the Phoenix Suns have scored more efficiently than the Pelicans. Unsustainably hot 3-point shooting (40% over that span, as compared to 34.5% beforehand) has a lot to do with that. However, it also coincides with Van Gundy giving Zion the ball.
Adding playmaking to historic interior scoring
Given Williamson's unique gifts, his high-volume finishing might not depend much on how he's used. As Seth Partnow of The Athletic noted on Twitter last week, Zion's rate of shot attempts in the restricted area around the basket is far and away the greatest in the play-by-play era. That's been true each of his two seasons despite different coaches and playing alongside different centers. Williamson's two campaigns are the two highest on record as far as attempts in the restricted area per 100 possessions:
Still, Zion is capable of being more than just a finisher, something he's gotten more opportunity to show in the past month. In a recent edition of his weekly "Ten Things" column, my ESPN colleague Zach Lowe highlighted New Orleans making Williamson the ballhandler in pick-and-rolls, something he rarely did as a rookie or over the first month of the season.
Again, breaking his statistics into 10-game segments is revealing.
Over the past 10 games, Williamson is running the fourth-most pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions among Pelicans players, trailing Brandon Ingram (31.7) and point guards Kira Lewis Jr. (22.3) and Lonzo Ball (18.2).
In some ways, Zion's progression with the ball in his hands is similar to that of the player he'll square off against Thursday night, Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks. Because Giannis was so raw when he came into the league, it took him longer to become a regular pick-and-roll operator. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Antetokounmpo didn't reach double-figure pick-and-roll opportunities per 100 possessions until 2015-16, his third season in the NBA.
Much like with Giannis, the defensive strategy against Zion -- as laid out by my colleague Kevin Arnovitz last week -- relies on building a wall around the basket to prevent him from finishing. That's easier said than done because of Williamson's agility in tight spaces. The Boston Celtics, who limited Zion to 11-of-21 shooting in Sunday's nationally televised matchup, probably did about as well as possible. But Williamson still got loose for 13 points in the fourth quarter as the Pelicans rallied to force overtime before winning the game.
Incremental progress on defense
For Zion to fully realize his potential, becoming the kind of defensive playmaker he was at Duke is the next step in the process. He averaged 2.1 steals and 1.8 blocks per game during his lone NCAA season, production that would typically translate into above-average steal and block rates in the NBA. But Williamson barely averaged a steal and block combined per game as a rookie.
Clearly, conditioning was a big factor after Zion missed the first 44 games of the 2019-20 schedule following knee surgery. Then, just as Williamson was working his way back into shape, play stopped because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Williamson began the eight-game restart of the season behind in terms of conditioning because he left the NBA's campus for personal reasons and was forced to quarantine upon his return, setting up a disappointing effort in the bubble.
Although concerns about Zion's weight will likely always follow him, this season has been encouraging. He's been able to log starter minutes (32.8 per game) and we're seeing more glimpses of disruptive defense. Williamson's block rate has doubled from his rookie season and his steal rate is up, too.
There's still plenty of room for improvement for Zion on defense. His lack of attentiveness defending away from the ball remains an issue, and after New Orleans benefited from fluky poor opponent shooting with Williamson on the court as a rookie, the Pelicans are worse defensively this season when he plays.
New Orleans could also use more from Zion on the glass, the one area where he hasn't shown progress over the course of the schedule. When starting center Steven Adams is on the bench, Williamson has rebounded just 12% of available defensive rebounds according to NBA Advanced Stats, a rate that would be below average for a guard.
Defensive improvement is needed for the Pelicans as a team. After all, despite that second-rated offense over the past 10 games, they're just 5-5 in that span because their defensive rating ranks 29th, ahead of only the Cleveland Cavaliers.
In the long run, Zion's development is far more important than what New Orleans does this season. If he can continue to progress into a force in the paint and off the dribble while having more impact on the defensive end of the court, the Pelicans are well positioned to build a contending team around him and Ingram. Williamson making the leap should help New Orleans get there.